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Early statistics are noisy. This is true for team success. The Miami Marlins have the best run differential but worst record in the NL East. This is certainly true of fantasy players. DJ LeMahieu currently has a higher on-base percentage than slugging percentage. He is the 35th-ranked first baseman and 40th-ranked third baseman through 24 games played.
Fantasy managers realize the uneven nature of the early season, which is why LeMahieu is still rostered in 98 percent of leagues. No one is cutting bait. Yet, it doesn't always pay to be overly patient on the other end. Don't avoid low-rostered players just because you assume they will eventually end with underwhelming numbers. For the backend of a roster, use waivers as a tool to improve your output each and every week.
For our purposes in this column, we are looking at Yahoo!'s rostered percentages, as well as its positional eligibility. We are searching for useful players rostered in fewer than 40 percent of Yahoo! leagues. With that being said, below are my first base and third base waiver wire pickups to consider for Week 6 - May 3 through May 9.
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Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
32% Rostered
You can be excused if you missed adding Votto in April. His recent seasons indicated a player whose career was facing its end. A hot couple weeks pushed him over the 40 percent rostered threshold, but now he dropped well back below it again. And yet, Votto remains an interesting piece.
He is not playing like the classic version of Joey Votto in 2021. His walk rate of 8.7 percent is the lowest figure since his rookie year. His K-rate of 20.2 percent is also the worst it has ever been, albeit just slightly. On the other hand, Votto is making better and harder contact than he has in years. His 13.5 percent barrel rate and 48.6 hard-hit percentage blow away anything he'd done in the past six seasons. Taking a look at the differences between his actual and expected batting averages and slugging percentages, one can foresee a great uptick in his immediate future.
The other particulars (playing every day and batting in the middle of the lineup) were never a question with Votto. This batted-ball profile, though, describes a player that should absolutely be relevant in fantasy.
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
31% Rostered
If you held off on acquiring Longoria last week because he was banged up, no one will hold it against you. He still lingers under the 40 percent threshold, though, and remains an elite add this week. The veteran cornerman only ended up missing one additional game in Week 5. Once returning to the lineup, he picked up right where he left off.
The Giants have surged past the Dodgers in the standings in large part thanks to Longoria's resurgence. Missed games for rest and recovery are going to be part of rostering him, but his production makes it worth it. If you missed the write-up on Longoria from April, put on some sunglasses, and take a gander at his Baseball Savant profile.
Asdrubal Cabrera, Arizona Diamondbacks
12% Rostered
Do you enjoy elite on-base numbers and oodles of counting stats? Cabrera is a boring name for sure, but he is having a nice start to his season. His batting eye is completely locked in. His 17.6 percent walk rate is one of the best in the league. That is combined with a 21.3 percent chase rate and 15.4 percent K-rate. He is swinging at everything he wants and nothing he doesn't. When the ball is put in play, Cabrera's damage certainly leaves something to be desired.
We can even expect his batting average to start dropping based on his quality of contact. And yet, he is a supreme asset in OBP leagues. In standard leagues, because he's batting third in the Arizona lineup most days, we still find him useful as a great two-category performer, though perhaps not as much as his teammate rostered in just 10 percent of leagues.
Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks
10% Rostered
Smith is building a resume that is worth paying attention to. He has only played 35 career MLB games across two seasons, but there are reasons to be impressed. Firstly, he is great at making contact and is hitting the ball very hard when he does: 93rd percentile in whiff rate combined with being in the 89th percentile of hard-hit percentage.
I would ordinarily be worried about his low walk rate, but that was actually a strength of his in his minor-league career. Across the past four years prior to '21, which includes his bit in the Majors in 2020, his walk rate never fell below 11.3 percent. Smith is a batter who shows a good eye and makes hard contact when he does swing. That is everything we could want. For good measure, Arizona is batting him leadoff nearly every day.
This isn't the best timing that could be arranged for adding Cabrera and Smith. We would certainly like to avoid a Mets series if possible. Arizona does have one in Week 6. But waiting on the Diamondbacks to beat up on worse pitching staffs could mean missing out on them, especially the highly touted and fast-rising Smith.
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