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Welcome to Week 7 in DFS. Last week, this column hit the 2x multiplier with three of five highlighted matchups (DraftKings scoring), including top-24 performances from Jakobi Meyers and Curtis Samuel. A few repeat standouts dominated the field again including Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen, who now each have three or more top-five weeks at the position already this season.
Week 7’s main DFS slate will be the season’s toughest so far, with six teams on bye and many of the remaining teams dealing with injuries to key skill position players. Paying up for a reliable top receiver will be more common this week, meaning picking the right high-priced star and mix of riskier value picks will go a long way in helping managers top DFS leaderboards on Sunday.
Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
$9,500 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel; vs. Chandon Sullivan
Often the highest-priced receiver on the slate is not worth taking based on the bloated expectations for them to be able to return value. This is not one of those weeks.
With Cooper Kupp back in full force for the Rams in Week 6 he finished as the WR4, making it two straight top-12 performances to start his season. This week, Kupp will line up primarily against Pittsburgh Steelers slot CB Chandon Sullivan in a dream matchup. Kupp’s 89.2 offensive PFF grade significantly outpaces Sullivan’s 45.1 defensive grade, the second-highest PFF grade discrepancy of any WR/CB matchup in Week 7.
The 30-year-old is averaging 10 targets, 7.5 catches, and 133 receiving yards in two games since returning from injury. With the Rams missing their top two running backs this week, expect them to come out passing against a vulnerable Steelers defense with Kupp at the center of their game plan.
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Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
$6,100 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel; vs. Juju Brents
Cooper has had a lackluster season thus far, only registering one top-10 WR performance (Week 3). He logged his second-best game of the season with QB P.J. Walker under center in Week 6, catching four balls for 108 yards against the 49ers.
Cooper has a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts next on the schedule, PFF’s number one easiest matchup in the NFL for receivers. The Colts play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season. Through six weeks, Cooper has a 20% target share and has scored 74% of his fantasy points against zone coverage (PPR). The 29-year-old’s high floor makes him a good bet in cash games in particular.
https://twitter.com/WRCoachVannucci/status/1714344981404479748
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
$6,000 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel; vs. Kei'Trel Clark
Lockett is fresh off a six-catch, 94-yard performance and is poised for another big week against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks as the fourth-best matchup for receivers, according to PFF.
Lockett has only two top-24 performances in his six games this season but has a great shot at a third in Week 7. The 31-year-old will match up primarily in the Z position against Cardinals CB Kei'Trel Clark, who has a dismal 48.1 PFF defensive grade (compared to Lockett’s 74.5 offensive grade).
Lockett’s counterpart D.K. Metcalf is also a great play this week, albeit $800 more expensive than Lockett on DK. Lockett is the 16th-most expensive receiver despite leading his team in target share, receptions, and air yards. Try to get a piece (or even a stack) of the Seahawks offense this week.
https://twitter.com/SamiOnTap/status/1713643401433031162
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
$5,700 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel; vs. Jerry Jacobs
Flowers has been Baltimore’s top receiver so far in his first season in the NFL, catching 35 passes in six games and already garnering eight or more targets on four different occasions.
Flowers lines up all over the field for the Ravens with a slight tendency towards the right side (39% of the time), meaning he will see his fair share of both Lions CB Jerry Jacobs and CB Will Harris.
Detroit has played zone coverage at a top-12 rate. Flowers has more catches against zone coverage than all other Ravens receivers combined this season (30 catches compared to 28 for the rest of the receiver room).
https://twitter.com/TheFFBallers/status/1714795771139182846
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
$5,600 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel; vs. Damarri Mathis
The Denver Broncos have a historically poor defense, earning the lowest defensive DVOA score for any team through six weeks. They rank as the seventh-best matchup for opposing receivers, according to PFF. As the 18th-highest-priced wideout, receiver Christian Watson stands out as a particular value this week.
Watson will line up primarily against CB Damarri Mathis and his 34.7 defensive PFF grade, the lowest grade among all eligible starting cornerbacks so far this season. By working primarily from the Z-receiver spot, the former second-round pick will mostly avoid standout CB Patrick Surtain II, who will draw WR Romeo Doubs most often in this matchup.
Watson is an especially interesting play in tournaments this week as a high-ceiling option who is still working his way back to a full complement of snaps in a Packers offense in need of playmakers.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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