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Welcome to Week 18 WR Matchups to Target. Last week’s picks yielded three double-multiplier finishes (two fantasy points per $1,000 in DraftKings salary) in Puka Nacua, Chris Godwin, and Nico Collins.
With the NFL regular season coming to an end this week, teams will either be resting their starters, fighting for final playoff positioning, or looking to finish their season on a prideful high note. This translates to a lot of value across the main slate, with several upside receivers outside the top 10 in price having an opportunity to finish atop the DFS leaderboard.
Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$7,400 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel; vs. Donte Jackson
Mike Evans proved skeptics wrong in his 10th season -- after being drafted as the WR32 in fantasy ADP ahead of the season, Evans enters the final week of the season as WR8 in fantasy points per game, including leading receivers in touchdowns, ranking third in deep targets and ranking tenth in receiving yards.
He has a solid matchup with the Panthers to finish the regular season. Carolina plays the most amount of Cover-3 coverage in the NFL. This bodes well for Evans, who is fifth in the NFL in receiving yards against Cover-3 (528 yards).
The Panthers play zone coverage at a top-three rate despite allowing a first down or touchdown on over 38% of zone coverage snaps, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Evans is cheap enough to be a great WR1 option for DFS lineups on Sunday while allowing room to pay up at other positions.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
$7,200 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel; vs. Starling Thomas V
With Seattle’s playoff hopes still alive with a win on Sunday, they will likely lean on their top receiver against a vulnerable Arizona secondary. Metcalf and the Seattle pass catchers have the third-best receiving matchup of the slate this week per PFF’s strength of schedule metric.
While Metcalf has not lived up to his draft value this year, he has shown great efficiency as a perimeter receiver. He ranks sixth among all eligible perimeter receivers in PFF receiving grade. By contrast, the cornerback he will be matched up against most often, Starling Thomas V, has the 84th perimeter coverage grade this season among 86 eligible corners.
PFF gives Metcalf’s receiving matchup an excellent 97.9 matchup advantage, second-best among all receivers this week. The 26-year-old is a fantastic play in both cash and GPP this week.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
$6,700 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel; vs. Clark Phillips III
Olave has also been a disappointment for much of the 2023 season. After being drafted as the 12th receiver in ADP this offseason, he enters Week 18 as the WR20 in full-point PPR. Despite the underperformance, he has had a resurgence in the second half of the season, finishing in the top 14 receivers five times in his last seven games and compiling 94 receiving yards or more in four of his last six.
Olave and the Saints receivers have the second-best matchup of any receiving corps this week per PFF, putting the Saints' top receiving weapon in a great position to finish his regular season strong against the Falcons. Olave has lined up all over the field for the Saints this year. He has a particularly advantageous matchup advantage over slot CB Mike Hughes, who has a 56.2 PFF coverage grade in comparison to Olave’s 81.9 receiving grade.
Olave has shown a low floor and high ceiling this season with Derek Carr behind center. He is a nice boom-or-bust option who can be stacked with his quarterback in tournaments.
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Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
$6,500 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel; vs. Eric Garror
Ridley had a mixed return to the NFL in 2023 as the WR25 through Week 17. He has had four finishes in the top 12 at the position while also having seven weeks outside the top 36. That said, the 29-year-old receiver has finally begun to see consistent volume over his last month, averaging 10.5 targets over his last four games.
The Jaguars have the second-best receiving matchup of the week against the Titans according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. Tennessee's defense has given up the 9th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and limps into Week 18 with some key injuries.
The last time these two teams faced off in Week 11, Ridley finished with seven catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He is projected to see a fair share of Titans CB Eric Garror who has a 51.4 PFF coverage rating, among the lowest in the NFL.
Ridley is another risk/reward tournament play this week. If QB Trevor Lawrence is able to play, Ridley is a safe bet to outpace his WR19 Sunday slate price tag on DraftKings.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders
$4,300 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel; vs. Jourdan Lewis
Impending free agent Curtis Samuel has a great opportunity to finish his season strong against the Cowboys on Sunday.
As the Commanders' top slot receiver, Samuel will line up most often against Dallas slot CB Jourdan Lewis, the fifth-lowest rated cover corner in the NFL according to PFF. In the first matchup between these two teams back in Week 12, Samuel posted the best game of his 2023 campaign, finishing with nine catches for 100 receiving yards.
Consider riding with Samuel to round out GPP rosters in what is likely his last game as a Commander.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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