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Welcome to Week 17 WR Matchups to Target. Last week’s picks yielded two double-multiplier finishes (two fantasy points per $1,000 in DraftKings salary) in Calvin Ridley and DK Metcalf, who finished WR11 and WR24, respectively.
Week 17 marks the end of the fantasy season for the majority of leagues. Fittingly, many of the fantasy studs that got managers to their fantasy championships have great matchups this week. The Sunday slate is a top-heavy one at receiver, with the top 24 WRs in salary seeing many favorable matchups.
Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
$7,900 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel; vs. Deonte Banks
Nacua stands out as the top rookie receiving breakout performer this year in one of the most impressive rookie WR classes in years. He ranks fourth in the NFL in receiving yardage, sixth in targets, and eighth in receptions.
He has seven or more targets in every single game this season and is coming off his best game as a pro against the Saints last week, finishing with nine catches for 164 yards and a touchdown.
Rams receivers have the 4th-best matchup of any team this week per PFF’s strength of schedule metric. Nacua has the top matchup advantage of any receiver this week against the Giants secondary according to PFF. He will mostly be covered by CBs Deonte Banks and Adoree Jackson, who have 51.8 and 49.1 defensive PFF grades, among the lowest for defensive backs this year.
Nacua has a high floor in a pass-happy offense, with the opportunity to break the rookie receiving record on Sunday. He is a great bet for cash games this weekend.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
$7,300 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel; vs. Sterling Thomas V
The Eagles have the second-best receiving matchup of the week in a game against the Cardinals on Sunday. Grabbing Philadelphia’s WR2 for your lineups, who is $1,300 cheaper than A.J. Brown on DraftKings this week, is a great way to get in on the action. Smith has hit double-digit DK points in eight straight games and has finished among the top 12 receivers three times over that span.
Arizona deploys zone coverage at a top-five rate despite allowing 7.11 yards per coverage snap, the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Cardinals have surrendered a first down or a touchdown on 42.2% of zone coverage snaps, the worst rate in the NFL. Smith has produced well against zone, running the most routes against that coverage while accounting for 0.38 fantasy points per route run (31st among all receivers).
As the 13th-most expensive receiver on the main slate, Smith is a great bet in tournaments if looking to pivot away from top options.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
$7,200 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel; vs. Tre Avery
Collins is one of the best values on the main slate this week in a smash bounce-back matchup versus the Titans. The 24-year-old has four top-5 finishes at the position this season, including topping 30 DK points in three games.
The Titans present the number-one matchup for opposing receivers this week per PFF’s strength of schedule metric. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. He will be lining up primarily opposite cornerback Tre Avery, who has the worst PFF grade of any qualifying defensive back this season (40.6).
Collins missed the Texans’ Week 15 matchup with the Titans but has every opportunity for another top-ten performance this week. Start him everywhere.
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Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
$6,800 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel; vs. Christian Izien
Olave is enjoying an excellent second half of his season, finishing in the top 14 receivers five times in his last six games and compiling 94 receiving yards or more in four of his last five.
As the Saints' unquestioned number one target, Olave has seen a 24.9% target share with a 40.7% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 31.7% first-read share.
This week he faces off with the Buccaneers, PFF’s third-easiest matchup for receivers. Since Week 11, the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. They have allowed the fifth-most receptions to receivers in 2023.
As the 18th receiver in price on DraftKings and 14th on FanDuel, he is another great pivot from the top-priced options in both cash and GPP.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$6,100 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel; vs. Alontae Taylor
Godwin had a slow start to the season but has shown a growing rapport with QB Baker Mayfield in recent weeks, tallying at least 11 targets and 53 receiving yards in each of his last three games.
His growing participation in the passing offense means an excellent opportunity to have shares in the Bucs' passing game this week against the Saints without paying up for Mike Evans, who is $1,700 more expensive on DraftKings. Since Week 12, New Orleans has the fourth-highest rate of single-high. Against single-high, Godwin has a 22% target share, 1.78 YPRR, and a 26.5% first-read share.
While Evans will certainly be the more popular DFS pick this week, consider stacking Godwin with Baker Mayfield in tournaments as a cheaper, contrarian way to take advantage of a good matchup.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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