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Welcome to Week 16 WR Matchups to Target. Last week’s picks yielded one triple multiplier (3 fantasy points per $1,000 in DraftKings salary) in Jayden Reed, and proved successful in predicting team results with teammates of two of this column’s picks seeing top-five WR performances (Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp).
Week 16 brings injury concerns for a few top receivers, including question marks for the statuses of Pro Bowl receivers Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen among others. Which receivers will step up this week?
Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
$6,900 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel; vs. Starling Thomas V
Moore had his worst receiving performance since Week 9 last week against the Browns but has a great opportunity for a bounceback this week against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals present the top matchup for receivers this week according to PFF, along with being the 32nd-ranked defense according to DVOA. Arizona deploys zone coverage on 83% of snaps (4th most in the league). They have allowed 7.11 yards per coverage snap, the third-worst mark in the league. They have also surrendered a first down or touchdown on 42.7% of zone coverage snaps — the worst mark in the NFL.
Moore’s matchup with the Cardinals secondary presents the third-best PFF matchup advantage among all receivers this week (89.7 matchup advantage). Moore is a smash play in all formats this week and a great bet to top his receiving prop of 63.5 yards.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
$6,700 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel; vs. Tre Avery
Metcalf enters Week 16 as the WR22, with four top-24 performances over his last six games.
He has a game with the Titans next on the schedule, the second-best matchup on the week for receivers per PFF. Metcalf lines up as the X-receiver in Seattle’s offense 57% of the time and is projected to line up against CB Tre Avery for the majority of snaps. Avery has a 45.7 defensive grade according to PFF, the third-worst among qualifying defensive backs this season.
The Titans have allowed 9.1 yards per coverage target and a 19.4% explosive play rate in man, both bottom-five marks in the NFL. The Titans' defense also gives up the 7th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Expect Metcalf to perform at or above his weekly averages of 7.6 targets and 14.7 fantasy points per game on Sunday.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
$6,300 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel; vs. Zyon McCollum
Ridley is the WR27 in PPR this season as a boom or bust option in fantasy. He has three top-10 performances in PPR to go along with five games outside the top 50 receivers.
Ridley has a great matchup this week against the Buccaneers, the third-best matchup for receivers this week according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. They have deployed single-high coverage on 56.3% of their defensive snaps since Week 10. Against single-high coverage, Ridley has a 25.6% target share, a 42.4% air-yard share, and a 29.4% first-read share. Tampa Bay has also allowed the second-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers over the last six weeks per FantasyPros.
A key factor to watch for Ridley this week is the availability of fellow receiver Zay Jones, who is day-to-day nursing an ankle injury. In eight games with Jones in the lineup this season, Ridley has averaged 5.3 catches, 70.6 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. In six games without Jones, Ridley is averaging 3.0 catches, 36 receiving yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game.
Ridley should be considered in all formats given the matchup but should be considered more as a tournament play if Jones misses.
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Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
$5,100 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel; vs. Jaylon Jones
London has been another wildly inconsistent performer this year but can be a great play in the right matchup. He has four top-24 performances to go along with five games outside the top-50 at the position.
This week London has a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, the ninth-best matchup for receivers according to PFF. The Colts have surrendered an average of 5.4 catches, 87.9 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns to opposing leading receivers this year.
As the X-receiver in the Falcons offense 44% of the time, London is projected to line up most often against Colts CB Jaylon Jones. His 81.9 PFF receiving grade poses a significant advantage over Jones’ 59 defensive grade.
As the WR24 in DraftKings salary this week, London is a great bet to return value in GPP/tournaments.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders
$4,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel; vs. Michael Carter II
Samuel has been hot in December, totaling 206 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 18 catches (26 targets) over his past three games. He had his best fantasy performance of the season last week against the Rams, finishing with 21.1 PPR points.
He’ll look to keep the temperature up this week at MetLife as the Commanders face off with the Jets in Week 16. Despite having the number-one toughest matchup for receivers according to PFF’s strength of schedule, Samuel has a lucrative matchup in the slot against CB Michael Carter II. The Jets have played man coverage at a top-eight rate this year which suits Samuel, who leads his team in yards per route run (2.04) and fantasy points per route run (0.45) against man coverage.
Consider Samuel in DFS and as a fantasy sleeper in fantasy playoff matchups, who is a particular discount on DraftKings.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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