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Welcome to Week 15 WR Matchups to Target. The fantasy football season may be over for many teams this week but DFS is here to fill that void. Last week was another great round of WR Matchup picks, with three of five picks finishing in the top 10 at the position and hitting over a three-times multiplier on DraftKings (fantasy points per $1,000 in salary). This included the WR1 on the week in Deebo Samuel.
Week 15 sees a slightly smaller main slate with a Saturday triple-header on the calendar. Rookie receiver breakouts have been the story of recent weeks, with Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, and Zay Flowers all hitting the weekly top 10 for the first time. Which pass catchers will rise to the top this week?
Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$7,500 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel; vs. Corey Ballentine
As the picture of consistency from the wide receiver position, Evans has had another impressive season as the WR10 entering Week 15. After five top-10 performances through his first 12 games, the Pro Bowler had his worst game of the season in Week 14 with a single catch for eight yards.
Evans will look to bounce back this week against the Packers. He has a strong 89.2 matchup advantage against perimeter corner Corey Ballentine, who he will line up most often against. Evans has a considerable size advantage opposite Ballentine, measuring six inches taller and weighing 35 pounds more than his defensive counterpart this week.
The Packers deploy the 12th-highest rate of zone coverage this season. Evans has a strong 23.5% target rate against zone, while also ranking in the top 12 in fantasy points per route run (0.48), PFF receiving grade (86.9), and yards per route run (3.00) versus zone coverage this season. The 30-year-old is a strong pick for cash games this week.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
$7,300 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel; vs. Benjamin St-Juste
Nacua stands out as the top rookie receiving breakout performer this year in one of the most impressive rookie WR classes in years. He ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yardage. Nacua leads the Rams in all receiving categories and has tallied seven or more targets in every single game this season.
Nacua has comfort all over the formation for the Rams but has most commonly lined up as the Z receiver this year (44% of the time). He boasts impressive matchup advantage grades against key defenders Benjamin St-Juste and Jartavius Martin (93.6 and 95.7 advantage grades, respectively).
Nacua’s high volume and top matchup advantage make him a great choice in DFS yet again.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
$7,200 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel; vs. Marco Wilson
Aiyuk has been featured in this article multiple times this season and rightly so. He boasts four top-10 WR performances and six top-20 finishes in 2023.
The Niners have the fourth-best receiving matchup against the Cardinals this week, according to PFF, and Aiyuk is in the best position to take advantage given significant mismatches on the perimeter. Aiyuk has a 92.0 PFF offensive grade this season compared to 41.3 and 52.6 defensive grades for Arizona’s outside corners, Marco Wilson and Kei'Trel Clark.
The Cardinals play zone on 83.1% of snaps, which bodes well for Aiyuk, who ranks inside the top five in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage. Aiyuk and Samuel are great bets this week once more.
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Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
$4,900 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel; vs. Christian Izien
Reed has turned the corner in his rookie season for the Packers, coming off an impressive 10-target, eight-catch game last week against the Giants. He has shown a strong rapport with QB Jordan Love of late, garnering 29 targets in his last four games. He has also been involved in the run game in the second half of the season with 10 rushes since Week 9.
Reed and the Packers have the number-one matchup for receivers this week, according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. Reed’s individual matchup in the slot is the most lucrative of the game -- Buccaneers slot corner Christian Izien has a subpar 62.6 defensive grade. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has given up the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards to slot receivers.
Reed comes at a discount this week as the 26th-priced receiver despite top-12 upside. The rookie is a great play in both cash and tournament contests this week.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
$3,800 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel; vs. Jourdan Lewis
Shakir has been inconsistent for the Bills in his second season, with a WR6 ceiling (Week 11) and a rock-bottom zero-catch floor (Weeks 1 and 4).
Shakir’s 75.8 PFF slot-receiving quietly ranks No. 5 among 33 NFL slot receivers with at least 155 slot-receiving snaps. Shakir ranks first among slot receivers in yards after the catch per reception (7.7) and fourth in yards per route run (2.04). He is also top-12 among slot receivers in missed tackles forced per reception (0.13) and explosive pass plays rate (30.4%).
He will line up most often against Cowboys slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis. Lewis has a 36.7 PFF slot-coverage grade, dead last among 36 qualifying slot cornerbacks. He ranks bottom four in both yards allowed per coverage snap and explosive pass plays allowed rate.
Shakir is a great boom-or-bust play in tournament contests this week.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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