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Welcome to Week 12 WR Matchups to Target for the main slate. Last week, four of our five picks finished in the top 10 at the position in DraftKings points, with multipliers for those picks ranging from 2.9 to 5.4 DK points per $1,000 in salary. We’ll use the same principles to make picks for this week.
The majority of Week 11 top WR performers were familiar faces except two -- Bills WR Khalil Shakir and Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf both cracked the top 10 at the position for the first time this season. The Week 12 main slate should bring more unexpected results with five divisional matchups on the slate.
Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
$7,600 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel; vs. Marco Wilson
With more risk among the top five priced receivers on the DFS main slate this week, Nacua is a dependable, high-floor pick that could pay off particularly in cash/head-to-head contests this week.
The rookie enters Week 12 as the WR9 in PPR scoring but has not had a top-10 performance at the position since Week 7. That could change against the Cardinals this week, PFF’s third-easiest matchup for receivers this week.
As the clear-cut second option in the Rams passing attack, Nacua has tallied seven or more targets in every single game this season. He ranks eighth among receivers in target this year despite already having his bye week. His high volume and top matchup advantage against DB Marco Wilson make him a great choice in DFS yet again.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$7,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel; vs. Jaylon Jones
Turning 30 with a new quarterback hasn’t slowed Evans down this season. He is the WR12 in PPR with three top-10 weeks through 10 games.
Evans and the Buccs face off with the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, PFF’s fourth-easiest matchup for receivers. The Colts play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Evans fares well against zone, ranking fifth among receivers in yards per route run and 12th in receiving grade against zone coverage.
The 10th-year pro has lined up on the outside 72% of the time this season and has a significant matchup advantage over perimeter corners Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker Jr. (65.6 and 47 defensive grades, respectively). In a passing game script with the Buccaneers as 2.5-point underdogs, Evans is a great play in DFS this week.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
$6,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel; vs. Carlton Davis III
The Colts have been a middle-of-the-pack offense with Gardner Minshew under center, ranking 18th in offensive DVOA and in passing yards per game. This week, the Indianapolis Colts receiving room gets a juicy matchup with the Buccaneers, PFF’s second-easiest matchup for receivers this week.
Pittman should be the top beneficiary of this matchup with excellent matchups against Carlton Davis III and Zyon McCollum (matchup advantage grade of 89 against both corners, according to PFF). The Buccaneers have given up 21+ DK points to a receiver in three of their last four games.
Pittman has a high floor with consistent volume in the Colts offense, earning 31% of the team’s receptions so far this year. The fourth-year receiver has eight catches in six of nine games this season, including three straight.
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Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
$4,900 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel; vs. DJ Turner II
Johnson has been disappointing for fantasy managers this year with only one top-12 performance among receivers in his six games this season. The Steelers are looking at a fresh start this week without OC Matt Canada, who was let go from the team after a 13-10 loss to the Browns last week.
Pittsburgh receivers have the 11th-best matchup in the league this week, according to PFF, with Johnson’s primary matchup against DJ Turner II being the largest opportunity for DFS. As the Z receiver in the Steelers offense, Johnson will see plenty of Turner II, who defends the left side of the defense 50% of the time.
Johnson will look to take advantage of a defense that allowed 15 DK points or more to the top opposing receiver in their last nine straight games. The 27-year-old is a great bet in tournaments given a low projected ownership percentage. His inexpensive cost as the 26th-highest price receiver on the DraftKings slate means he is a great discount this week.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
$3,600 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel; vs. Bradley Roby
Shakir has come alive in his second season for Buffalo, playing over 70% of snaps in two straight games and surpassing Gabe Davis as the WR2 for the Bills in recent weeks. He enters Week 12 fresh off of a career-high 115 receiving yards on three catches, including one long touchdown.
Shakir has a matchup with the Eagles on Sunday. Philadelphia’s secondary has been susceptible to the pass this year, particularly in the slot, with CB Bradley Roby (PFF grade of 61) continuing to underperform. The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points to receivers in the NFL thus far.
The Eagles play man coverage at a top-12 rate, which Shakir has been particularly efficient against this season. The second-year pro is averaging 0.46 fantasy points per route run against zone, tied for 16th among wide receivers. Shakir is another great high-ceiling/low-floor bet in tournaments on Sunday.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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