RADIO
What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part one of our Week 1 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus breaks down the first half of the Week 1 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?
Vikings @ Titans - Sunday 9/11 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups I Love
Tajae Sharpe (WR, TEN) - Trying to fight my unrequited man crush for fifth-round rookie Tajae Sharpe is simply an exercise in futility. With Kendall Wright presumably out for week one, don't be surprised if Marcus Mariota leans on his new safety blanket. Delanie Walker served that role last year, but Mariota has been way too bubbly about Sharpe this preseason to make me think it's just hype. That said, Sharpe should be used strictly as a third receiver or flex play in 12+ team PPR leagues.
Adrian Peterson (RB, MIN) - In the unlikely event that the Titans are up big and the Vikings decide to cut Sam Bradford loose in his first game wearing purple, this could come back to haunt me. Otherwise, I can safely predict that Peterson will be among the leaders in rushing yards to begin the year. The Titans weren't completely horrible against the run last year, finishing 21st in yardage allowed. Then again, they didn't have to face someone like AP every week as their divisional opponents lacked any semblance of a running game.
Matchups I Hate
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN) - Henry may very well steal the starting job away from DeMarco Murray and end up as Rookie of the Year. But it ain't gonna happen in Week 1. Murray is the starter, Henry is the backup. That important caveat aside, the Vikings defense allowed just five rushing TD to opponents all last season. He needs to be on your roster, just not in your starting lineup this particular week.
Sam Bradford (QB, MIN) - Not that you were itching to start Bradford anyway (if so, please consult a medical professional to receive treatment), but he hasn't been officially named the starter yet. For some reason, coach Mike Zimmer is playing the waiting game until Sunday morning to announce that the former #1 pick that they traded a first-rounder for might actually start. One week wearing a Vikings jersey is probably not enough to get comfortable in the offense and let's be honest - Bradford has never really been a fantasy starter in the first place.
Notable Players
DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - See Henry, Derrick above. Murray will have tough sledding against the Vikings D, but if there's a chance to score near the goal line, he should get first crack. He is an iffy RB2 for this matchup as we don't really have a clear idea of how many carries he will get in this offense.
Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN) - One of the more divisive sleeper picks of the preseason, you either dig Diggs or you don't. Personally, I'm not on that bandwagon and I was one of the lucky ones who snagged him mid-season last year. Seeing his production tail off once opponents realized he was their only option in the passing game makes me wary. Then again, with only Charles Johnson listed above Diggs on the depth chart, it would seem as if he's still currently their best option. He is an uninspiring WR3 in deep leagues.
Bears @ Texans - Sunday 9/11 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups I Love
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU) - This space could be better used for other purposes, but I should perform my due diligence be reminding you that he is a fantasy stud and should be starting for you this week. The Bears actually allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to WR in 2015, but don't return a lot of experienced corners in 2016. Starter Kyle Fuller is not a lock to play and the Bears' secondary has been shaky all preseason. Expect big things right away from Hopkins.
Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - It's time to unleash the Kraken. Or at least it would be if that were Lamar Miller's nickname. "Miller Time" is way too obvious. Either way, Miller should finally get the chance to be treated like a true feature back to ease Brock Osweiler into things. The Bears allowed 4.5 Y/A last season, 4th worst in the league. Miller averaged 4.6 Y/A over his career running behind mediocre offensive line play in Miami. If my online calculator is accurate, he needs to carry the ball 22 times to crack 100 yards. My calculator couldn't tell me whether he would score a touchdown or not, but my Magic 8 Ball said "Outlook is Good," for what it's worth.
Matchups I Hate
Jay Cutler (QB, CHI) - Cutler will get a big dose of JJ Watt early and often. The Texans were one of the stingiest teams against the pass last season, allowing the third fewest total passing yards. Their pass rush could be even more intimidating if Jadveon Clowney builds on a promising preseason to earn his #1 overall pick status. Without a proven running back to lighten the load, things could turn ugly for Cutler.
Kevin White (WR, CHI) - He would already make for a risky start in his first NFL action, but reports of White being limited in practice mid-week are even more disconcerting. The fact that it's a hamstring issue is enough to make him a player to avoid. Fantasy owners should wait to see him 100% and productive before using up valuable lineup space on White.
Notable Players
Alshon Jeffrey (WR, CHI) - If White doesn't go, Jeffrey will draw double teams on a regular basis. You don't need to necessarily bench him, but temper your expectations considerably.
Chargers @ Chiefs - Sunday 9/11 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups I Love
Danny Woodhead (RB, SD) - This PPR darling could see standard league value by sheer volume. Melvin Gordon is yet to prove himself and until he does, Woodhead is the back to own in SD. He didn't play particularly well against the Chiefs last year, but checkdowns should be frequent as Marcus Peters and crew suffocate the passing game.
Matchups I Hate
Philip Rivers (QB, SD) - Rivers hates the Chiefs. Or maybe the Chiefs hate him. I'm sure it's mutual, but either way he just hasn't performed well against this division rival recently. Rivers went 0-2 with a 0/2 TD/INT rate and 59% Comp% last year. Playing at Arrowhead makes Rivers a low-end QB2 this week.
Notable Players
Jamaal Charles (RB, KC) - Charles is looking more likely to miss week one altogether, which is a big letdown for Charles owners like myself who are expecting a bounceback season. It still may happen, but we'll have to wait and hope he returns to 100% sooner rather than later. In the meanwhile, you did remember to handcuff him with Charcandrick West and/or Spencer Ware, right?
Keenan Allen (WR, SD) - Allen faces a touch match-up against Defensive ROY Marcus Peters, but he will get his share of grabs if the Chargers fall behind by two scores or more. He can't be benched in fantasy leagues, but this is not the week to pony up for his services in DFS.
Raiders @ Saints - Sunday 9/11 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups I Love
Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Ignore all the talk about the offensive line and the preseason struggles. It's the preseason for God's sake. New Orleans re-signed Jahri Evans to shore up the O-line and the Saints have a younger, more athletic receiving corps than last year, boosted by the addition of tight end Coby Fleener and rookie Michael Thomas. Brees should be plugged in as a top-5 QB option each and every week.
Coby Fleener (TE, NO) - All the talk of Fleener struggling to get on the same page as Brees can be ignored for this week. The Saints face a team that allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends last year. Opposing TE put up 910 yards and 11 TD on the Raiders last year, which bodes well for a big-bodied target like Fleener in the red zone.
Clive Walford (TE, OAK) - Let the tight end lovefest continue. Walford is not a household name, but he could make an impact early. As bad as the Raiders D was against the tight end, guess which defense was the absolute worst? Of course, it's the Saints. Pretty much every Raiders skill player should make this list in week one, but Walford is the one you might not suspect. The three C's (Carr, Cooper, and Crabtree) are a given. So technically I love the entire Raiders offense, but you know, word count.
Matchups I Hate
Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - I believe Ingram as a RB1 is a big stretch as it is, but there's nothing about this matchup to indicate he is due for a breakout performance. The Raiders actually finished in the top half of league in Rush defense and Drew Brees will be too busy chucking the ball down the field to feed Ingram 20+ times. The Raiders will be right up there with them on the scoreboard and shootouts don't usually favor running backs.
Notable Players
Michael Thomas (WR, NO) - It will be interesting to see how much of Thomas we see on the field, compared to Brandon Coleman. Dynasty league owners already know about Thomas, but in New Orleans any receiver can quickly become fantasy relevant.
Packers @ Jaguars - Sunday 9/11 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups I Love
Randall Cobb (WR, GB) - #5 overall pick Jalen Ramsey will be thrown to the wolves immediately against the Packers talented receivers. Cobb may be the beneficary here in terms of matchups. Jordy Nelson is a full go for the game, but Cobb may draw more targets as Nelson works his way back.
Matchups I Hate
Blake Bortles (QB, JAX) - Green Bay isn't known for a stout defense, but they forced opposing QBs into a 20/16 QB/INT rate last season. The main area Bortles needs to improve is cutting down on turnovers, so it could be a challenging day for the third year signal caller.
Notable Players
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) - It might be assumed that facing the Jags' inexperienced defense would work in Rodgers' favor, but the Pack may not feel obligated to throw as frequently if they can form any semblance of run game as they would prefer. That depends heavily on Eddie Lacy, which is a tricky proposition, but don't necessarily expect a huge game out of Rodgers.
Bucs @ Falcons - Sunday 9/11 @ 1 PM EST
Matchups I Love
Julio Jones (WR, ATL) - Jones will be targeted roughly 12,844,751 times this season in Kyle Shanahan's offense. He won't catch all of them, but he's about as safe a WR1 as you can get this week. With Antonio Brown facing Josh Norman on MNF, Jones could be the top fantasy scorer of the week.
Matchups I Hate
Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) - Three factors come into play here. 1) The Bucs held opposing runners to 3.4 Y/A last year. 2) Freeman tapered off significantly in the second half last year, scoring just two TD and registering zero 100-yard games. 3) Tevin Coleman will be worked into the equation, cutting into Freeman's snaps. Don't be surprised if your second-round pick ends the day with 56 yards and no scores.
Jameis Winston (QB, TB) - Atlanta allowed 19 passing TD all last season, the exact same number as defending champions Denver, while forcing 15 INT. Winston is known to force the ball when trying to make big plays and could end up with more turnovers than TD.
Notable Players
Vincent Jackson (WR, TB) - Jackson has become an afterthought in fantasy circles after a disappointing 2015. His problem was injury-related, however, not a sudden decline in skills. Prior to last season, V-Jax posted four straight 1,000 yard efforts, three of which came in Tampa Bay. The Falcons were average against the pass, so Jackson could produce flex-worthy numbers.
Dolphins @ Seahawks - Sunday 9/11 @ 4 PM EST
Matchups I Love
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - Seeing as how I picked Wilson to be the NFL MVP this season, I will probably be putting him in this category every week. There is a legitimate reason to think he could shine, given Miami's weakness in the secondary. Wilson played particularly well at home in 2015 with a 17/2 TD/INT rate and 112.4 QBR. He is a bonafide QB1 with a chance to put up big point totals right off the bat.
Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) - Many pundits are refusing to hop on the Baldwin bandwagon after his touchdown bonanza in the second half last year. I'm not suggesting he will go for three TD to start the season, but as mentioned above, if there is a weak spot in the Dolphins' defense it's definitely the secondary. Top corner Byron Maxwell is rehabbing his reputation after a disappointing year in Philly and Baldwin is likely to get the better of him a couple of times.
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - Not that he has a particularly good match-up, but Landry figures to be targeted early and often in this one. If Miami falls behind by two scores or more in the first half, the passing game figures to be in full effect. Landry only finished with less than five catches on four occasions last year. With Devante Parker questionable to go, chances are Landry sees a heavy workload.
Matchups I Hate
Arian Foster/Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - Guess who's going to see more time on the field in week one, coming off a pre-season in which both barely saw game-time snaps. I don't know either and I have been covering the Dolphins weekly since May. Foster figures to start with Ajayi mixing in once in a while, but honestly neither is a good
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) - Graham remains a huge question mark until he shows that he is fully healthy on the field. Even so, he must build some chemistry with Wilson that wasn't there his first year in Seattle. Graham will need to produce before he can be fully trusted by fantasy owners. If he's your best tight end in a 12+ team league, hopefully you have another option. Don't be afraid to keep him benched at least for this week.
Notable Players
Ryan Tannehill (QB, MIA) - It's hard to recommend any offensive player for Miami other than the usually reliable Landry, but Tannehill could put up some yardage if they fall behind early. Adam Gase's offense promises to elevate the embattled quarterback's game, but it will likely take some time. Playing on the road against one of the top defenses in the loudest stadium in the league doesn't figure to be the week it will happen.
Christine Michael (RB, SEA) - Michael is a player to keep a very close eye on this week. If he can repeat his preseason success (113 YDS, 1 TD on 19 carries) then a timeshare with Thomas Rawls could become a reality. That doesn't necessarily help either one, but if Rawls' injury problems persist, Michael could become a viable starter down the road. If Rawls suits up this Sunday, Michael is probably not worth starting unless you are swinging for the fences in hopes of a big performance.
