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Hello RotoBallers and welcome back to Break The Slate, our NFL DFS Lineup Picks for the Week 16 Christmas Day Slate! I appreciate you joining me in our season-long quest to find the best plays at each position for every NFL DFS slate. As the NFL season continues to chug right along, we've reached the time of year when many season-long fantasy managers might be out of the running for their league championship. As a result, some turn to DFS to stay in the action for the remainder of the season, so for those joining us for the first time: WELCOME!
Due to the holidays, the NFL has shuffled things up a bit this weekend, with the majority of the Week 16 slate taking place on Saturday. The Sunday Christmas Day slate will feature three games spread throughout the day. There are a lot of similarities with the Thanksgiving Day slate, so we'll attack our DFS thought process in a similar way, meaning we'll need to get unique in some areas of roster construction in order to differentiate our lineups from the rest of the pack.
These NFL DFS lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DFS points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. Also, be sure to also check out our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DFS lineups this Sunday – let's Break The Slate together!
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Quarterbacks - Week 16 Christmas Day Slate DFS Picks
Tom Brady - TB @ ARI ($6,100 DK & $7,500 FD)
It's been a tough year on and off the field for the GOAT, but just like always, Tom Brady endures. The 45-year-old hasn't made many DFS shortlists lately. However, Brady is coming off one of his better statistical outings of the season - a Week 15 loss to the Bengals in which he threw for over 300 yards for just the third time in 2022 and tossed three TDs - and draws a terrific matchup against a trainwreck Arizona Cardinals squad.
Of course, the fact that we're on a three-game slate makes pulling the trigger on Brady a little easier, though I could argue that he'd deserve consideration even on a full slate. Despite his lack of consistent success this year, the Bucs are still throwing the ball at the highest rate in the NFL - a massive 67.40% of the time - and Brady still has two extremely talented receivers at his disposal in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Aaron Rodgers - GB @ MIA ($5,900 DK & $7,300 FD)
Like the aforementioned Brady, Aaron Rodgers is another future HOFer that's having a bad year. Unlike Brady, Rodgers doesn't have elite volume to fall back on, as Green Bay prefers to lean on the run, which has led to last year's MVP topping 40 pass attempts in just two games this season and topping 300 yards passing in exactly zero games in 2022.
None of it sounds great, yet here we are on a three-game Christmas Day slate and Rodgers actually makes some sense. He draws a pass-friendly, warm-weather environment in Miami, as well as a Dolphins defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points in the NFL to the QB position and is something of a pass-funnel unit overall.
We know that Rodgers will need to be ultra-efficient to post a GPP-winning type of score on this slate, but we're betting a player that's capable of pulling off such a feat thanks to his talent and the best potential game environment he's seen in quite some time.
Running Backs - Week 16 Christmas Day Slate DFS Picks
James Conner - TB @ ARI ($7,000 DK & $7,500 FD)
While the large majority of the backfields on this Christmas Day slate are timeshare situations, we have no such concerns with Arizona's James Conner, who is featured as the unquestioned lead back in this Cardinals' offense.
Conner's Christmas Day matchup against a Tampa Bay unit that ranks 12th in Rush Defense DVOA is certainly no gift, however, volume makes up for a lot, and the Arizona RB should have a sleigh full of opportunities in this one. He's averaged 21.6 touches per game of the Cardinals last five and his 91% average snap rate since Week 10 leads the NFL over that timeframe.
Marlon Mack - DEN @ LAR ($4,600 DK & $5,700 FD)
We're forced to think outside the box on these short slates in order to differentiate our lineups from the rest of the pack. As a result, Denver's Marlon Mack deserves GPP dart-throw consideration and serves as an intriguing contrarian pivot.
Still working his way back from a 2020 Achilles injury, Mack latched on in Denver earlier this year and has earned some playing time thanks to their disastrous backfield situation. He's looked explosive in spot duty over recent weeks, rushing for 52 yards and a TD on eight carries, as well as catching six passes for 88 yards and a score in the pass game.
On a three-game slate we must be willing to take chances and Mack's viability is aided by legitimate health concerns with Denver's lead back, Latavius Murray. Murray has been limited in practice all week with a foot injury and is currently listed as questionable for Sunday's tilt against a Rams squad that has tossed in the towel on the season.
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Wide Receivers - Week 16 Christmas Day Slate DFS Picks
Tyreek Hill - GB @ MIA ($9,000 DK & $9,200 FD)
Being contrarian on a three-game slate is a must, be we also need to target players with the ability to pile up raw points. Tyreek Hill has proven himself to be one of the best DFS producers in the NFL this year. He trails only Justin Jefferson in DraftKings points scored at the WR position in 2022.
The Packers aren't an easy matchup for receivers, as they stand eighth in the league in Pass Defense DVOA. However, Hill is about as matchup proof as they come and his usage metrics are off the charts. He's first in the NFL in team target share (33.8%) and second in total Air Yards (1,758).
Christian Watson - GB @ MIA ($6,000 DK & $7,700 FD)
After getting his rookie season off to a sluggish start thanks to a combination of injuries and going through the process of earning Aaron Rodgers' trust, Christian Watson has finally emerged as a potential star.
Since a breakout game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, Watson has led the entire NFL in receiving TDs with seven. He's earned a team-leading 23.4% target share and amassed 518 total Air Yards. He gets a Dolphins secondary that ranks just 26th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA.
Tight Ends - Week 16 Christmas Day Slate DFS Picks
Greg Dulcich - DEN @ LAR ($3,900 DK & $5,700 FD)
We've been given a real lump of coal at the TE position on this slate and the sad part is that we're forced to play one. Without much enthusiasm, I'll lock in Greg Dulcich at the brutal TE spot.
The rookie has failed to bank much production, but the underlying usage has actually been terrific. Dulcich has an impressive aDOT of 9.50 since Week 10 and his 311 Air Yards over the last six weeks stands as the sixth-most at the TE position. The talented rookie should have Russell Wilson back in the lineup this week and his big-play potential gives him the highest ceiling on the slate at the dreadful TE position.
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