Week 14 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

December 8, 2018

Nick Mariano's Week 14 fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2018 NFL season. ECR comparison for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks.

Hello and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings in the spotlight and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). I’m currently eighth in FantasyPros accuracy competition, fighting with the smartest of cookies, after finishing ninth (out of 130) in 2017.

I hope this piece gives you a glimpse into my rationale for deviating from the ECR, which has led me back into the top-10 and you (hopefully) to the promised land. Don’t settle for less and hold your advice to high standards. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Week 14 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

There are a handful of QBs that I like more than most that might push their way into streaming viability. The fun names to explore are Mitch Trubisky (13 vs. 15) and Mr. Josh Allen (17 vs. 20).

Trubisky appears set to rejoin the Bears on the field for a marquee matchup against the Rams in a game that Vegas has an Over/Under of 52.5 points for. While I don’t love that Trubs’ shoulder was hurt, his legs are fresh as he’ll look to top 40 rush yards for the sixth time in just 11 games. Mix his mobility in with an attack mode that rivals Patrick Mahomes and you’ve got QB1 potential every week. His 9.3 intended air yards per attempt are fifth out of qualified QBs (Mahomes: 9.4) per NFL Next Gen Stats, while the same database paints him as one of six QBs with an aggression rate at 19% or higher. It’s not like Jordan Howard is going to beat the Rams.

Allen is polarizing considering he’s thrown five touchdowns and seven interceptions, but you know why his name is here. Since returning to action in Week 12, the rookie has turned in 224 rushing yards and a score on 22 attempts alongside 26-for-52 passing for 391 yards, three TDs and two INTs. Those two games were against Jacksonville and Miami -- no pushovers there -- and now he faces the Jets, who have allowed Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota and Trubisky to rush for 43 yards or more. Oh, and the aforementioned intended air yards stat? Allen’s 11.7 mark leads second-place Jameis Winston by over a full yard.

Those I like less are Matt Ryan (15 vs. 11) and Russell Wilson (16 vs. 13). Let’s focus on Ryan first since he takes the biggest fall from grace. He heads to chilly Lambeau, where the Packers just head Josh Rosen to 149 yards, with hopes of rebounding from an atrocious show with just 131 yards against Baltimore. Ryan’s 2018 splits see his completion percentage fall by seven percentage points, not far from the 4.69% disparity on his career.

Then there’s Wilson, who is attempting to one-up Deshaun Watson’s crazy TD% from 2017. It’s hard to separate the fact that his huge pass plays ding his rushing attempts, but it’s worth noting that he’s rushed for just 35 yards over the last three games. Seattle is the only team in the NFL that runs more than it passes (51% run), which aligns with Russ only having one game of 300-plus passing yards. Mix in a tough Minnesota defense in a game with a Vegas total of 45 and I’m quite iffy that Wilson hits top-12 value.

Week 14 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

There’s no dancing around my love for LeSean McCoy (15 vs. 25) here, which is my way of driving home that I like the Bills to beat the Jets this weekend. The Jets have given up eight TDs to opposing RBs in their last six contests, including two to Shady himself in Week 10. While his stats were disappointing in Week 13, McCoy touched the ball 19 times and should see plenty of work as Buffalo just cleaned out their wide receiver cupboard.

Another jumper is Justin Jackson (23 vs. 27), who goes from a potential flex play to RB2 territory in my books. We’ve got LAC head coach Anthony Lynn on record as saying that Austin Ekeler is a bit worn down and that Jackson could get more looks. This lines up with Ekeler mustering just 43 yards on 18 touches compared to Jackson’s 82 yards with a touchdown on just nine touches. Given Jackson’s 57 yards on seven carries the week before and now the matchup against a Bengals defense that has yielded the most fantasy points to RBs in ‘18, well I’ll be firing up Jackson wherever I can. Take your time, Melvin Gordon!

This offers an easy segue into talking down Ekeler (27 vs. 20), who I see as the 1B to Jackson’s 1A in Week 14. Clearly, this goes against most of my colleagues. But we’ve also seen Ekeler flop when he had the London game to himself so I’m aligning with Lynn’s coachspeak that Ekeler wasn’t meant for this workload -- at least not yet.

It’s also worth noting that I’m down on Sony Michel (16 vs. 12), Jeffery Wilson (25 vs. 22) and Chris Carson (28 vs. 24). I trust Michel won’t get vultured by James Develin again...twice...but I have to leave room for Rex Burkhead continuing to fold in and the fact that FootballOutsiders ranks Miami’s defensive line with the fifth-best power success rate. Rather, the fifth-worst success rate for opposing defenses (56%) in these scenarios: Runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. And that is why I’m not as high on Michel.

As for Wilson, I’m pleased with how well he performed in Week 13’s relief of the injured Matt Breida, but Week 14 against Denver is another story. The Broncos have turned it around lately, keeping Lamar Miller, Melvin Gordon, James Conner and Joe Mixon out of the end zone over their last four games. Wilson should be a decent play in PPR but I’m hesitant to sign off on his playing in standard.

Then there’s Carson, who is battling a dislocated finger and trying to outrun a fast-approaching Rashaad Penny in his rearview mirror. Oh, and he must overcome these obstacles to perform against a Vikings front that allows an average of under 80 yards to RBs. At least Seattle has turned into a run-heavy offense, but I’ll need more than that to bump Carson up into my top-25.

Week 14 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

In the same vein of liking Mitch Trubisky a bit more, Allen Robinson (21 vs. 25) is worth chatting about. Then we’ve got the playmaker Curtis Samuel (33 vs. 39), who I anticipate to step up with Greg Olsen out and Devin Funchess still just Devin Funchess.

The Bears are set to defend Soldier Field against the 11-1 Rams who, while slower in Week 13 against the Rams, are still a force. Robinson’s nine targets paced all Chicago’s wideouts in Week 13’s loss to the Giants and resulted in a 5-79-0 line. Keep in mind, those were Chase Daniel targets. Since returning to play in Week 10, his 288 receiving yards are over 100 more than any other WR with a healthy 13.6 average depth of target. The Bears are three-point underdogs at home and I like Robinson to stay involved throughout the game, even if he has to contend with Aqib Talib at times.

Samuel has finally gotten more play in Carolina’s last two games, logging snap shares of 92% and 83% while Devin Funchess has been out or limited. There’s no doubting that this offense now goes through Christian McCaffrey, who has seen an insane 19 red-zone opportunities in the last three weeks, but Samuel’s three is tied with D.J. Moore for the most by a WR in that span. Week 13 also saw Samuel log 11 targets, one more than CMC, en route to a 6-88-1 receiving line. Sprinkle in a rush attempt here and there and that Denzel Ward should soak up either Funchess or Moore, and I’m all about Curtis here.

As for those slipping down a bit, I’m dinging big-play maestro Tyler Lockett (25 vs. 20) and Corey Davis (31 vs. 26) thanks to some iffy matchups. Well, I suppose Jalen Ramsey isn’t iffy anymore, his knee looked just fine when tangling with T.Y. Hilton in Week 13. Davis has only seen 15 targets over the last three games but has gotten by with TDs in two of them. He’s got the deck stacked against him with lower volume, a matchup with Ramsey and Marcus Mariota at less than 100%.

And while Tyler Lockett’s one catch was a beaut -- a 52-yard TD, for those who didn’t play him -- but that tightrope act makes for a wide range of outcomes. The ceiling is 150 yards on two long TD scampers, but the floor is next to nothing. Simply put, I can't do this with Lockett against Minnesota, even if they are at home.

Week 14 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I’m not sure why Jaylen Samuels has an ECR of 18 at TE (I have him sixth), but I imagine some folks just haven’t moved him up or even realized he was there in the first place. Someone a bit more exciting is New Orleans’ Dan Arnold (15 vs. 29), who gets to tee off against Tampa Bay’s defense that bleeds fantasy points to TEs. Anyone beyond that upper tier is likely relying on touchdowns, so I’ll follow the matchup with a future Hall-of-Fame QB here.

Slipping in the ranks are folks like Kyle Rudolph (16 vs. 12) and Chris Herndon (19 vs. 16). Rudolph was barely within the top-20 in Week 13 after seeing just three targets in Minnesota’s 24-10 loss to New England, with the three targets aligning with my low expectations. He hasn’t caught a touchdown since Week 3 and now faces a Seattle defense (on the road, no less) that has given up just 40 yards per week to TEs. The matchup is even worse for Herndon, as Buffalo yielded an average line of 3-35-0 to TEs in ‘18 and his QB will likely be a rusty Sam Darnold in a game that “boasts” a Vegas total of 38. Gross.

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