Underpriced Pitchers According to ATC Projections

July 18, 2020

With the 2020 MLB season shortened to 60 games, RotoBaller's Ariel Cohen has updated his ATC projections. Nicklaus Gaut turns these projections into fantasy baseball dollars and looks at underpriced pitchers compared to NFBC ADP.

While nothing is guaranteed, we can at least see the light at the end of the tunnel. Baseball is back, baby! Summer camp (I refuse to call it Spring Training 2.0) has now begun and Opening Day is set for July 23/24. Coming with the return are seismic changes; a universal DH, limited opponents, a free runner in extra innings, and - in case you missed it - only 60 games!

All these new changes mean we have to throw out all of our old projections. Luckily, RotoBaller has 2019's most accurate ranker, Ariel Cohen, to give us his updated ATC projections. I took those projections and turned them into fantasy dollars, ranking them accordingly. By comparing these rankings to the latest NFBC ADP data, we can see which players ATC likes at their draft price, and who should be passed on.

We've already covered the mispriced hitters, so now it's time for the pitchers. While there's always a chance that a projection will go bust, since it's inception ATC has proven to be one of the most reliable models available. With that in mind, it's the wise fantasy player that keeps these projections in mind to try and hunt bargains wherever you can find them. Let's start with the pitchers who are projected to outearn their draft-day prices.

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Methodology

To work out the fantasy values, I applied a z-score methodology to ATC projections, first running the projections through the Fangraphs auction calculator and taking the pitchers valued above negative 10 dollars. I then applied my own z-score method to this revised player pool and ranked the players accordingly.

Along with my calculated dollar values, I used NFBC ADP's since April 15th, which left me with a sample pool of 30 drafts. Below are the 56 pitchers being drafted within the top-150, along with what number pitchers that they're being drafted as, what number pitcher ATC projects them as according to my valuations, and the difference between the two ranks:

Just as I'm targeting hitters who contribute in all categories and have high-average potential, I want pitchers who fit a similar bill. Strikeouts are fine and I'd rather have someone on a contender than a basement dweller because of the added win potential. But I believe ratios - and ERA in particular - are going to be the biggest value-drivers for pitchers.

With that in mind, we'll take a look at each of the biggest bargains according to ATC to see how each pitcher rates. Not all categories will be created equal in this shortened season and skills that may have carried your pitchers in the past may not provide the same support with only 60 games to prove themselves. Let's see who may shine the most, relative to where you're drafting them.

Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays - 52 ADP

ATC Projections: 66 IP - 5 W - 76 SO - 3.41 ERA - 1.17 WHIP

We keep waiting for Morton to turn back into a pumpkin but instead he's gotten better and better with every year since he escaped Pittsburgh three seasons ago. Those that thought Morton might leave his new magic in Texas after leaving Houston for Tampa Bay were sorely mistaken. The 36-year-old right-hander finished as the #9 starting pitcher according to the Fangraphs auction calculator, with 16 wins and 240 strikeouts in 194.2 IP, and posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Wins

While not as important as the ratios, wins will (unfortunately) will be even more important. In this department, Morton doesn't worry me, collecting 45 wins over the past three seasons. He'll never be confused for some workhorse that's a threat to go the distance every start but Morton isn't as big of a short-shifter as your impression may be. Morton pitched seven innings in seven of his 33 starts in 2019, six innings in 14 starts, and five innings in seven starts.

Strikeouts

No worries here, with Morton posting a career-high 30.4% K-rate, making it the third year in a row that he's set a new career-best in the metric. On the back of a variety of fastballs and one of the game's best curveballs, I don't suspect whiffery will become a problem for Morton anytime soon. The curve had a 41.3% K-rate in 2019, while his four-seam posted a 37.9% K-rate.

ERA/WHIP

Normally, I would have no worries about Morton's ratios. He just finished posting a 3.05 ERA that was backed up by a 2.81 xFIP and 3.28 xERA that was in the top-10% of the league. His 3.54 SIERA was a bit higher but that's just picking nits, to an extent. And Morton's 1.08 WHIP was a career-low, as he dropped two-points from his walk-rate in 2018, finishing with 7.2% BB%.

The issue with Morton (and the other pitchers in the AL East) is that he won't do much escaping from difficult opponents and hitter's ballparks with the specialized schedule. And while Morton does strikeout lefties at a higher rate than righties, he also has a much bigger home run problem; he had a 0.36 HR/9 against right-handers last season and a 1.06 HR/9 against left-handers.

If lefties hit you hard, this is not the schedule (or the park factors*) you are looking for. Considering both home runs and overall runs, only the Mets and the Marlins can truly be called pitcher parks, with every other stadium finishing in the top-10 of one, or both, of the factors. Morton already dealt with the AL East meatgrinder last season but will add Washington, Philadelphia, and Atlanta this season. Here is the Rays 2020 schedule, along with the 3-year park factors for left-handed batters:

*Baseball Prospectus 3-Year Park Factor ranks for LHB

As you can see, the schedule is not as balanced as you may have assumed, both between home/road balance within the division and games played against teams out of the division. There's good and bad in the above for the Rays. In terms of interleague, they get six games against the Marlins and don't have to play in Philadelphia. Within the AL East, however, the results aren't as favorable. Seven of their 10 games against the Orioles are in Baltimore and six of their 10 against the Yankees are in New York. They do get a slightly better deal only going to Toronto three times but I still think the bad outweighs the good.

Best Case Scenario 

Even with the ballpark and opponent concerns, we're not doubting Morton and his Uncle Charlie in this hypothetical best-case season. Let's assume he's ageless and make some upgrades, using his production rates from 2019 and ATC's projected innings. That would bump him up to:

6 W - 82 K - 3.05 ERA - 1.08 WHIP

There aren't any seismic bumps with the above line but it would be enough to make Morton the #5 pitcher, giving you just over the value of Walker Buehler, and trailing only Cole, Verlander, deGrom, and Scherzer. While I do worry about his east-only schedule, Morton has all of the ingredients to return big-time value in a shortened season. If you're on a winning team and have an ERA pedigree, then you're on my radar when the price is right.

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays - 53 ADP

ATC Projections: 62 IP - 5 W - 78 K - 3.34 ERA - 1.18 WHIP

From one Ray to another. After winning the AL Cy Young award in 2018 (and ascending to the fantasy elite) Snell fell flat on his face in 2019. Snell posted a 4.68 and 1.27 WHIP in only 107 innings and missing most of the second half after having surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow.

However, as I detailed early this year, Snell was likely hurt long before having surgery in late-July and this significantly affected his performance. Long story short, Snell absolutely cruised through April and May, pitching as good or better than he did in 2018.

Not only did Snell get absolutely torched in June, he got smoked while his velocity ticked down and he completely went away from the heavy curveball/slider approach he had used prior. After looking at his heatmaps, it's easy to see how his injury may have been affecting his movement:

After digging deeper, it seems to be quite obvious that Snell was pitching hurt for a long time and had the results to match it. All signs have pointed to Snell being completely healthy for 2020 even though Tommy John can always be lurking right around the corner.

Best Case Scenario

That he's exactly like he was in April and May? Because that was the best Snell we've ever seen and I think it was only derailed by his elbow issues. Let's take Snell's numbers from last April and May and extrapolate them out to this 60-game season.

Applying my z-score methodology to the ATC projections already makes Snell a big buy for me, with the left-hander clocking in as the ninth-best starting pitcher. But when applying his pre-injury numbers from last season to ATC's projected innings, he becomes an even bigger treasure:

62 IP: 5 W - 83 K - 3.05 ERA - 1.05 WHIP

The improvements shake out to five more strikeouts, two fewer earned runs, and eight few combined hits and walks. This would move Snell from the #9 starting pitcher to the #5 starting pitcher. While it's not unrealistic in a shortened season, the ratio improvements are a little much for me.

I still like Snell considering the price but he has enough bad marks against him in a shortened season that I'm shying away. I'm confident in the strikeouts but not in the wins. Snell only threw 23 pitches in his recent spring outing and it's just the second time he's faced live hitters since needing a cortisone shot prior to original spring training. It's hard to be confident that Snell will line for many wins given where he seems to be in his throwing program.

Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics - 91 ADP

ATC Projections: 25 IP - 1 W - 12 SV - 34 K - 2.95 ERA - 1.09 WHIP

Running ATC projections through my valuations, Hendriks is just one of many closers that appear to be undervalued. This makes sense to me, as relievers will now be responsible for a greater percentage of innings pitched, thereby increasing their relative fantasy value. Not only that, but multiple teams have already stated that many starters may be limited in their first trips through the rotation, meaning relievers will be responsible for an even bigger slice of the innings pie.

The thing is, is that the increasing value of relievers is not being ignored. Hendriks 91 ADP from above is from NFBC drafts since April 15th, which is far enough back to give us a robust sample size. However, the 13 drafts that have taken place since July 1 (aka after the shortened season was confirmed) tell a different story for Hendricks and the rest of the reliever class. Here are the top-30 relievers and their change in ADP:

The reliever market is changing in a hurry and it's hard to disagree with the fluctuations. Not only will they pitch a bigger percentage of innings but with only a two month season some of the uncertainty that goes along with drafting closers is diminished. Two months means there isn't as much time for established closers to lose their jobs. That makes me more confident in bumping up relievers, particularly the top-tier.

After a dominant 2019 in which he usurped Blake Treinen for the top spot, Hendriks has firmly placed himself in the upper crust of closers. He finished the season with 25 saves in 32 chances, striking out 124 batters in 85 innings, with a 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Hendricks seems to have a firm grip on the job for 2020 and Oakland is again set to have a contending team that should afford him plenty of save opportunities.

Best Case Scenario

The best case for fantasy players might be one where he simply doesn't get drafted in the 70s like he has been lately. But even with the rising price, I think Hendriks will give you a solid ROI with what ATC is projecting. But this is about dreaming bigger. We don't have to give him a repeat of his 1.95 ERA but how about if we swap in his 2.58 SIERA for the 2.95 ERA that ATC projects? His projected 1.09 WHIP can be left alone, as it's only a moderate rise from last year. The ERA change would bump Hendricks from the projected #21 pitcher to #16.

Trying to predict the number of saves that closers will have in only 60 games is a dangerous proposition. ATC projects Hendricks to have 12 SV, which is tied for the third-most. But let's be real; save numbers will likely go higher than what the projections are conservatively calling for, only projecting the leader to finish with 14 SV. After 60 games in 2019, Kirby Yates led the league with 22 saves, with five players having between 16 - 19 saves. If we give Hendricks the aforementioned ERA bump (which was the difference of just one less earned run) and give him 15 saves instead of 12, then the A's closer would move from the #21 pitcher to the #15 pitcher.

If you notice, taking away one earned run improved Hendricks' value by more than adding three more saves. That's just more evidence for me that ratios are what's going to rule the day with pitchers, relative to counting stats like saves and strikeouts. If I were an ABBA song in drafts, I'd definitely be "Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (More Closers in My Draft).

Taylor Rogers, Minnesota Twins - 102 ADP

ATC Projections: 24 IP - 1 W - 12 SV - 28 K - 3.12 ERA - 1.08 WHIP

I'm admittedly pretty annoyed that I don't have more shares of Rogers. I'd gotten a few here and there but I'd only really ramped up my targeting of him in my last few drafts before the pandemic shut it all down. Since then Rogers' draft price has only risen, going from a 112 ADP in the last week prior to spring training shutting down, to a 102 ADP since April 15th. And in the small sample of drafts we have since July 1, he's risen even more, with an 84 ADP. The great reliever inflation has been brutal.

Rogers did struggle more in the second half, posting a 3.59 ERA that was a far cry from the 1.82 ERA he put up in the first half. However, while his ERA fluctuated, his SIERA stayed steady. Rogers had a 2.74 SIERA in the first half and a 2.48 SIERA in the second half. His job security also got locked in more as the season went on and Rogers now enters 2020 with only Sergio Romo and Trevor May lurking behind him. It's not just his hold on the job that I love; Rogers also has serious skills.

The left-hander posted a 32.4% K-rate in 2019 that was in top-10% of baseball and a minuscule 4.0% BB% that was in the top-2%. In fact, among qualified relievers, Rogers had the fifth-lowest walk-rate; when looking at just closers, Rogers had the lowest rate by almost a full percent over Roberto Osuna.

Besides the skills and besides his supposed lock on the job, what makes me most excited is the team that he's on. After their record-setting offensive performance in 2019, the Minnesota Twins are loaded up even more after the addition of Josh Donaldson. And while the Twins rotation is solid, it still consists of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, and Rich Hill; these guys aren't going to throw a lot of shutouts. Big offense plus occasionally shaky pitching could equal lots of opportunities. Especially against this cupcake schedule:

Best Case Scenario

ATC is projecting Rogers for a 3.12 ERA but as I've mentioned, best-case scenarios for me are going to involve stronger ratios. So let's say Rogers puts up an ERA that's more reminiscent of his steady 2.63 SIERA from 2019. Rogers is the #23 pitcher according to my ATC valuations but would jump up to the #19 pitcher if you gave him one less earned run (and 2.63 ERA). And given the team around him (and the schedule they're playing) taking the over on a projected 12 saves doesn't seem to be a horrible bet. Bumping Rogers up to 15 saves (along with subtracting one earned run), would move him up the #17 pitcher.

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