RADIO
Welcome to the Week 7 edition of RotoBaller's UFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players in DraftKings' Week 7 UFL contests. Each week during the UFL 2024 season and postseason, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit for DraftKings' wide array of tournaments and cash games. After you're done here, be sure also to read all our other weekly UFL fantasy football articles.
The XFL and USFL had both defied the odds over the last pair of springs to complete full seasons -- one in the case of the former and two in the case of the latter. They've now joined forces in the hopes of forming a stable and long-lasting pro football alternative for fans that also serves as a launchpad to the NFL for as many players as possible. There's a solid degree of carryover in terms of personnel from both leagues for the 2024 season, even though several teams from each league didn't make the cut for the UFL.
DraftKings' UFL DFS rosters largely mirror that of NFL contests, with a notable exception -- there is no TE-specific spot, but rather two WR/TE spots and two additional flex spots that can be filled with a running back, wide receiver, or tight end.
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UFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go UFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are, therefore, suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it is meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
UFL Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Danny Etling, MICH at D.C. | $9.3K (Saturday, 5/11 UPDATE: With Etling demoted to No. 3 quarterback, consider pivoting to the Renegades' Luis Perez, who's listed as an "Also Consider" option below, or the Defenders' Jordan Ta'amu, whose salary is $9K)
Etling came through nicely as a Week 6 value recommendation in his second start, generating 17.6 DK points on the strength of 257 total yards and a passing touchdown. That was preceded by 15 DK points in Week 5 against the Showboats, and he's complemented his work through the air by averaging a healthy 5.4 yards per carry on the ground.
Etling now takes on an aggressive but inconsistent Defenders defense, one that's picked off just a single pass through six games. D.C. has also conceded a 62.7 percent completion rate, a robust 10.4 yards per completion, and 10 touchdown passes. Gregg Williams' crew has also given up the second-most passing yards per contest (200.7), furthering Etling's case.
Former Patriots quarterback Danny Etling showing off the wheels:#NEPats | #UFL
— New England Sports Review (@nesportreview) May 5, 2024
ALSO CONSIDER: Luis Perez, ARL vs. MEM | $8.9K
UFL Running Back DFS Value Plays
Matt Colburn, MICH at D.C. | $7K
Colburn had a much more subdued performance in Week 6 than a game prior, but he's still carrying a very reasonable salary and carries plenty of upside. The versatile Wake Forest product makes for an interesting pairing with Etling, given he does have a passing game role, and Colburn has flashed some solid upside this season with a pair of 14-plus DK-point tallies.
The Defenders could help Colburn bounce back from a modest 3.9 DK-point day in Week 6, as they've surrendered 4.3 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns. D.C. has also conceded the second-most rushing yards per contest (112.5), and Colburn should continue to see enough work on the ground alongside Wes Hills to have a chance to exploit those vulnerabilities.
De'Veon Smith, ARL vs. MEM | $6.3K
The Renegades' offensive line hasn't exactly been consistent in opening up running room this season, but Smith did post his second double-digit DK-point tally of the season in Week 6 against the Panthers with 68 total yards on 17 touches. The Michigan product also saw a season-high five targets in that contest, and with the potential Leddie Brown (undisclosed) being out again in Week 7, Smith should be given consideration.
The Showboats is a good candidate to target, as Memphis is yielding 4.6 yards per carry, which is the second-highest figure in the league, and has also allowed a UFL-high 10 rushing touchdowns. The amount of efficiency runners have been able to muster against Memphis' front seven should give Smith a chance to enjoy some success despite his unit's spotty blocking.
UFL Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Kelvin Harmon, D.C. vs. MICH | $7.8K
Harmon continued to cement himself as Jordan Ta'amu's top target in Week 6, posting a season-high 27.1 DK points with a season-best 8-101-1 line on 12 targets. That marked the third straight game visiting the end zone for Harmon, who also has three straight double-digit DK-point tallies and at least six targets in four consecutive contests.
The Panthers have been relatively stingy against the pass, allowing a 60.4 percent completion rate and just 5.7 yards per attempt. However, Michigan has been susceptible to the big play, surrendering 9.5 yards per completion, seven passing touchdowns and the third-most passing yards per game (198.0). Given Harmon's steady role in the air attack, he should have volume on his side once again Sunday.
Burn the defense ✅
Hang onto the ball after a big hit ✅Kelvin Harmon with a big-time play for @XFLDefenders 💪 pic.twitter.com/QTjM7JwnPZ
— United Football League (@TheUFL) May 5, 2024
JaVonta Payton, ARL vs. MEM | $6.7K
Payton is an interesting value option given his recent body of work and increasing chemistry with Luis Perez, not to mention his matchup. The Tennessee product is up to a 17-285-2 line on the season, and he's parlayed his 16 targets the last two weeks into nine receptions, 157 yards, and a touchdown, adding a 14-yard rushing touchdown.
Those numbers have netted 27.9 and 13.2 DK points, solid-to-excellent returns on his current salary. Payton has at least six targets in three games thus far, and his speed should play well versus a Showboats defense that's also been vulnerable to the pass. Memphis has allowed a league-high 70.3 percent completion rate, 10.9 yards per completion, and 12 passing touchdowns, giving Payton no shortage of upside.
Steven Mitchell Jr., STL at BHAM | $4K
Mitchell made his season debut in Week 5 yet failed to come up with either of the targets he saw, but it was a different story in Week 6. The one-time Houston Texan turned five targets into a 4-35-1 line that netted 13.5 DK points, capitalizing on the defensive attention the Roughnecks were forced to pay to several of his other talented teammates.
Mitchell has the speed and savvy to exploit single coverage, even against a tough opponent like the Stallions. And, it's worth noting that while Birmingham's defense has rightfully earned plenty of accolades, they've also given up the second-most completions (128), 8.7 yards per completion, and eight touchdown passes. With a salary that carries minimal risk, Mitchell is an excellent tournament value play.
ALSO CONSIDER: Siaosi Mariner, MICH at D.C. | $5.6K
UFL Flex DFS Value Plays
Jace Sternberger, TE - BHAM vs. STL | $6.3K
Sternberger's salary continues to be very reasonable, and he'll check into Week 7 with a solid average of 7.9 DK points per contest despite some inconsistent usage. The field-stretching tight end only managed two receptions in Week 6 following a 12.6 DK-point tally in Week 5, but Sternberger did show off his penchant for chunk plays once again by averaging 17.5 yards per grab.
Sternberger is averaging a deep-threat-like 19.7 yards per catch overall for the season, and although he only has 12 receptions, he clearly has the upside to deliver with a couple of big plays.
Adrian Martinez with a DIME to Jace Sternberger 🎯 🎯 🎯
The @USFLStallions are flying 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VIp8y5wksj
— United Football League (@TheUFL) April 28, 2024
Sal Cannella, TE - ARL vs. MEM | $5.9K
Cannella is the second tight end I like the looks of this week from a value perspective. Much like Sternberger, Cannella can get down the field when necessary and has plenty of established chemistry with Luis Perez.
The Showboats' vulnerabilities against the pass described in Payton's entry earlier naturally also apply to Canella, who has eight targets each in three of his past four games, including two straight, and just posted a season-high 17.2 DK points in Week 6.
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