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Chris Clegg breaks down some underrated prospects who may contribute to their respective MLB teams sooner than later in 2024 and could make a big impact in 2024.
Winning in a fantasy baseball redraft league requires a nice blend of high-floor players and upside shots. While prospects do present more risk in a one-year setting like a redraft league, if they hit, they pay big dividends. The reward could be huge if these players get adequate playing time and perform.
In my most recent article, I broke down the top prospects to know for 2024. But what about sleepers that might provide value in 2024? Those might be the prospects that pay dividends.
Even if you know these names, what kind of impact might they bring to fantasy baseball? Let's break them down.
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Jackson Merrill, SS/OF, San Diego Padres
Merrill was selected 27th overall in 2021 on an under-slot deal but was a successful scouting find by the Padres. Since being drafted, Merill has done nothing but hit and has shown progress with his hit tool every season despite being young for the level.
From a pure contact standpoint, you would be hard-pressed to find a better contact hitter who also has a well-rounded skillset. After posting a 90 percent zone-contact rate in 2022 to pair with an 85 percent overall contact, Merrill followed it up with an 88 percent zone and 83 percent overall contact rate between High-A and Double-A, despite being a young 20-year-old. Merrill chased more in 2023(30 percent vs 26.5 in 2022), but it did not lead to more strikeouts due to the amount of contact he makes.
Given the frame plus bat speed, Merrill gets to solid exit velocity, especially as he has filled out his frame. Posting an average exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity firmly above average, Merrill has failed to turn it into home runs due to high ground ball rates. He managed 15 home runs in 2023, and he saw the ground ball rate trend downward from 59 percent to 40 percent. A substantial change in launch angle was a key part of Merrill getting to more power, but there is still more in the tank.
If you like a high-floor caliber player who is a safe bet to be a solid major league bat, Merrill is a solid bet. While already having a solid frame, there is room for more, and Merrill could add more power to the profile. While the speed is average or slightly above, Merrill has shown consistent success on the base paths, swiping 15 bases this year in 19 tries. The potential is there for Merrill to provide seasons where he hits .300 with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases.
It might be crazy to think that Merrill broke camp with the Padres as a 20-year-old who has not played above Double-A. But the way the Padres spoke about Merrill and utilized him this spring made it less surprising to see him in the starting lineup and playing center field in Seoul.
Jackson Merrill (MLB's No. 12 prospect) puts together his second multihit game of the spring for the @Padres. pic.twitter.com/efKe09p529
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 3, 2024
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
After being selected by the Rays in the second round of the 2021 draft, Manzardo hit and hit some more, with his breakout coming during the 2022 season. After dealing with things off the field for most of 2023 as well as a dislocated shoulder, 2023 felt like a lost season in some ways, but Manzardo rebounded in a major way in the Arizona Fall League, getting back to the root of who he is as a player.
Manzardo has a strong feel for contact, leaving the barrel in the zone for a long time. He made contact on 80 percent of pitches in 2023 with a zone contact rate of 90 percent. The contact has always been strong, but some questioned the ability to get to power after 2022.
Making major strides in that department, Manzardo posted an average exit velocity north of 90 mph with a 90th percentile of 104.5 mph. Those numbers were up from 88.2 and 102.6 mph in 2022.
The contact and plate discipline skills are easily plus or better, and the blossoming power may end up being above average or plus when all is said or done. The hit tool gives Manzarod a unique skillset at first base, and the blossoming power gives some intriguing potential.
While it is likely that Manzardo will start the 2024 season in Triple-A, I don't expect him to stay there long. The Guardians do have spots available, and Manzardo could step right in and make an impact in 2024.
Owen Caissie, OF, Chicago Cubs
If you are looking for a future middle-of-the-order power hitter, Owen Caissie is your guy. You could argue that his power is some of the best in not only the minors but all of baseball, as he posted an average exit velocity north of 94 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 110 mph. Both of these figures would rank among the best hitters in the majors.
While the power is enormous, the contact skills remain a question, though that number also improved after the tacky ball left the Southern League(AA). Through the end of May, Caissie was running a 38 percent strikeout rate with a 65 percent contact rate. After the All-Star break, when the tacky left, Caissie struck out just 28 percent of the time but managed a 68 percent contact rate. While the numbers are still concerning, seeing the improvements was good.
Caissie began his career with San Diego, being selected 45th overall before being traded to the Cubs in the Yu Darvish trade. He has continually improved and seen his stock rise as a professional largely due to his hard work ethic and the fact he has performed well despite being young at each level.. There is a strong chance we will see him in Chicago in 2024, hitting beautiful home runs.
It seems like a stretch that Caissie will make the team on Opening Day; he has shown strong contact skills this spring and still has massive power. If he gets 250 or more plate appearances in the majors, it makes him worth a grab in draft champion leagues and someone to watch very closely who could make an impact in 2024.
Owen Caissie hit his 8th and 9th HRs of the year tonight in a 3 hit game. Caissie has big raw power and seen his K rate trend 📉 over the year. pic.twitter.com/NTfQgwjfFM
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) May 26, 2023
Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins
Lee was among the highest-floor hitters in the 2022 draft, selected eighth overall by the Twins out of California Poly. After a strong debut post-draft in 2022, Lee posted a .275/.347/.461 slash with 16 home runs in Double and Triple-A in 2023.
A switch hitter, Lee has a better swing from the left side and posted a .860 OPS as a lefty and a .603 OPS as a righty. He struck out 14 percent from the left and 24 percent from the right.
Still, Lee made contact on 79 percent of pitches he saw this year and 90 percent of pitches in the zone. While he does have some aggressiveness to his in-the-box and does chase out of the zone at times, even when he does, he puts his bat on the ball.
His average exit velocity in Triple-A checked in north of 90 mph, which is solid, and his 90th percentile was close to 103 mph. He has the power to hit 20 home runs and the speed to steal ten bases regularly.
Lee is a safe bet to be an MLB regular due to his high floor-to-hit. He may not possess any star traits, but Lee should be someone who posts high batting averages consistently, and that could start as early as 2024. I would not be surprised if Lee broke camp with the Twins where his versatility could allow him to play across the infield.
Brooks Lee making it look easy.
This is the second straight game with a double for MLB's No. 18 prospect.
Complete scouting report, news, more on the #MNTwins infielder: https://t.co/5htjeayHfn pic.twitter.com/5250yaVJay
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 2, 2024
