RADIO
Winning in a fantasy baseball redraft league requires a nice blend of high-floor players and upside shots.
While prospects do present more risk in a one-year setting like a redraft league, if they hit, they pay big dividends.
While most are familiar with the top prospects, what do they bring to the table and will they make an impact for redraft leagues? Let's break them down.
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Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Mashing 31 home runs in 2023 across 117 games, Caminero posted elite exit velocities, reaching 111 mph on his 90th percentile exit velocity, which would rank in the top five among all hitters in baseball. The power is evident to all fields, and he can hit opposite-field home runs with the flick of his wrist. You could argue for a 70 grade on his power, and I would not be upset.
The contact skills are average as Caminero posted a contact rate north of 73 percent and a zone contact rate north of 80 percent. He is not going to be a .324 hitter like we saw in the minors, but he is capable of being a .270+ hitter consistently. The bat speed and barrel control allow Caminero to make adjustments on the fly in his swing and cover the zone well without expanding it too often.
Speed will not be a part of his game, and while he may give you a near zero in stolen bases, it is balanced out by the elite power and solid feel to hit. Caminero is not only the Rays' top prospect, but also arguably the top prospect in all of baseball. He is a swing tweak away from putting up elite power seasons.
While the rumors are out there that Caminero will begin the year in Triple-A, it would be hard to keep him down with a strong spring training performance. Even if he does start in the minors, the Rays are not likely to keep him down long, especially with the prospect promotion incentive.
Junior Caminero took this breaking ball down and away and hit it where it was pitched, putting over the right field wall for a 💣. He controls the barrel through the zone so well and has easy power.#RaysUp pic.twitter.com/k92rnYylfK
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) May 17, 2023
Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Langford mashed in his career at Florida, hitting 47 home runs and slashing .363/.471/.746 while striking out just 14.6 percent of the time and walking 15 percent across 610 plate appearances.
Langford does not chase often and has a strong feel for contact in the zone. Chasing just 15 percent of pitches collegiately while making contact on 88 percent of pitches in the zone is rather impressive. Langford’s average exit velocity in college trailed Dylan Crews by a decent margin, but a number sitting near 91 mph is still very impressive, considering his higher-end exit velocities were stellar (110 mph, 90th percentile).
Langford exploded in his pro debut and made himself No. 1 in the draft class and, for some, the top overall prospect. Between four levels and 200 plate appearances, Langford slashed .360/.480/.677 with 10 home runs and 29 extra-base hits.
The underlying data from college carried right over to pro ball as Langford made contact at a high clip, posting a zone contact rate north of 85 percent while his overall contact rate sat near 81 percent. The chase rate was right in line with his college number, and his 90th percentile exit velocity was north of 107 mph.
Langford was on the taxi squad during the World Series and was a legitimate candidate to replace Adolis Garcia on the roster when he went down with an injury, speaking highly of how the Rangers view Langford. There is a strong possibility he is on the 2024 Opening Day roster, but if not, it will not be long before he is roaming the outfield with the Rangers.
Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Holliday hits and hits some more. Between four levels as a 19-year-old last season, Holliday slashed .323/.442/.499 with 12 home runs, making it to Triple-A by season's end.
Holliday combines a strong feel for the strike zone and good contact skills. Checking in with a chase rate under 20 percent last season shows the elite batting eye as well as making contact on over 82 percent of pitches in the zone.
The only question is, how much power does Holliday get to? He hit 12 home runs last season. He added a ton of extra-base hits, having 30 doubles and nine triples to pair with the 12 home runs. The exit velocities were pretty respectable for a hitter with a smaller build that is 19 years old, as Holliday posted a 91 mph average exit velocity and a 102.3 mph 90th percentile. The average exit velocity is firmly above average, and the 90th percentile is average for the minor leagues.
He also needs to lift the ball more to get into 20+ home run territory, and it shows that the harder he hits the ball, the lower the launch angle. Holliday had just a 6-degree launch angle on balls hit over 95 mph and a -1-degree launch angle to the pull side.
Holliday has been getting run at second base so far this spring but unfortunately will begin the year in the minors. He shouldn't be down for too long though, and needs to be stashed in all leagues. He will be the top prospect call-up.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Chourio made waves in the prospect community in 2022 as a young 18-year-old who completely skipped the Complex and headed off to Single-A Carolina, where he hit the ground running. Chourio made it to Double-A in 2022 and, between three levels, slashed .288/.342/.538 with 20 home runs, 55 extra-base hits, and 16 stolen bases in 99 games, elevating his stock to one of the top prospects in baseball.
2023 was a tale of two halves, and to me, it was clear the tacky ball had a large effect on him in the first half as Chourio spent his season in Biloxi, part of the Southern League. In the first half, he hit just .249/.304/.410 with 11 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The swing-and-miss issues stemmed mostly from changeups, which were moving much more aggressively with the pre-tacked ball. His contact rate in the first half of 75 percent jumped to 81 percent in the second half as Chourio mashed and made his way to Triple-A, finishing the second half with a slash of .324/.379/.538 with 11 home runs in 57 games.
Chourio already gets to big exit velocities and puts the ball out of the park to all fields. His average exit velocity hovered around 91 mph, while his 90th percentile exit velocity sat at 105 mph. Chourio has posted exit velocities as high as 113 mph, which is pretty impressive for his age, all while running hard-hit rates north of 55 percent.
From a plate discipline standpoint, Chourio is quite aggressive and has shown the propensity to chase pitches out of the zone, but he makes up for it with the amount of contact that he makes. As previously mentioned, the contact rate jumped significantly in the second half, but was solid even with the tacky ball in play in the Southern League. It is worth noting that despite a high chase rate of 35 percent, he showed a much better feel in Triple-A, chasing just 22 percent of pitches out of the zone.
The pure upside with Chourio compares to any hitter in the minors. There is power, a strong feel for contact, and the speed to steal 30 bases per season consistently. Considering the data and poise he has shown as a young prospect, it is fun to dream on the kind of player Chourio could become.
Signing the largest extension for a player who has never debuted in the majors this offseason pretty much guarantees that Chourio is in the Brewers lineup on Opening Day.
Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
Carter has long been known as a high-floor hitter who gets on base at a high clip, dating back to his debut in 2021. Most teams did not even have Carter on their radar in the 2020 draft as a prep player that many thought would land at Duke, where he was committed. The Rangers liked him enough to snag him in the second round, and it looks like a steal.
Another strong minor league season in which Carter slashed .288/.413/.450 led him to be called up to the majors in September, where he mashed through the playoffs. With the Rangers, Carter hit over .300 and five home runs in 23 games, which was impressive considering he hit just 13 in 108 minor league games.
Carter has a well-rounded skill set, but his hit-tool-and-plate approach is probably his best asset. Posting a contact rate of 75 percent with an in-zone rate of 83 percent in the minors, Carter saw a small tick back on both numbers from 2022. The chase rate of 19 percent this season was also a very impressive number, which helped lead to high OBPs. Carter has posted elite chase rates his entire career, and that carried over to the majors as he chased just 9 percent of pitches out of the zone in a small sample.
The power is the biggest question mark in his game, with average exit velocities of 85 mph and 85.5 mph over the last two seasons. In the majors, that jumped to 89, which was encouraging, but it was a small sample. Carter has a projectable body and is still 21 years old, leaving plenty of time for him to fill out and add power.
The in-game power does play up beyond the exit velocities because Carter hits the ball at ideal launch angles consistently. His sweet spot percentage in the majors would have ranked at the top.
Carter does so many things well, having above-average contact with plus plate discipline and run times. He is a threat to steal bases, and if the power comes around, Carter could be a star. While he will need to improve against lefties, the numbers are not as bad as some make them out to be, with the contact rate dropping to around 71 percent. He will spend nearly the entire 2024 season as a 21-year-old in the majors.
The power growth potential was there with Evan Carter and we are seeing it so far this year. 3 home runs in 5 games so far. Already had strong contact skills and good speed/stolen base instincts.
pic.twitter.com/eqm9qalogC— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) April 16, 2023
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