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Nick Federline's NCAA college basketball betting picks for Wednesday, March 3, 2021. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Welcome back! In this article every week, we'll be giving you some of the top college basketball games and betting picks for Wednesday, March 10, 2021. As we enter our final week before the NCAA Tournament field is revealed on Sunday, keep an eye out for our extended coverage of March Madness. Stay tuned here at Rotoballer for our comprehensive March Madness coverage, including a look at this week's Bubble Report.
Last week's 1-2 record was a disappointing fallback. The North Carolina A&T vs. South Carolina State opened our week with yet another cancellation at the hands of COVID-19. UConn easily dispatched of Seton Hall to continue the Huskies' recent strong stretch. Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word were well on pace to crush the total, only to collapse down the final five minutes and fall barely short, and Maryland, unfortunately, lost a "can't lose" game against Big Ten basement dweller Northwestern. The 1-2 week drops the season-long record to 27-20.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks. Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 27-20.
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Minnesota vs. Northwestern - 6:30 PM
On February 11, Minnesota sat at 13-7, and likely in the NCAA Tournament field with victories over Ohio State, Michigan, and Purdue. The past month has been abysmal, with seven straight losses and virtually any chance at an at-large bid having been kissed away. Much of the recent run is a direct result of the Golden Gophers missing two starters - 7-footer Liam Robbins, and junior guard Gabe Kalscheur - but Coach Richard Pitino hasn't found enough depth that he trusts on the team to keep his stars' legs fresh. Junior Canadian point guard Marcus Carr, who played his freshman year at Pitt under former coach Kevin Stallings, was honored with a spot on the All-Big Ten third team and will need to put the team on his shoulders if the Gophers stand any chance of running the table in the Big Ten Tournament.
Evanston, Illinois, is a difficult place to win, but Coach Chris Collins has done a fairly good job given the difficult circumstances. Recruiting has improved, with 4-star recruits such as forwards Miller Kopp and Pete Kance (2018), and Robbie Beran (2019) choosing to play for the Wildcats. A December-to-February 13-game losing streak was snapped on February 25th, when Northwestern took down Minnesota in Minneapolis, and they then rattled off two more wins over Maryland and Nebraska. Northwestern enters the Big Ten Tournament with a bit of momentum and hopes to notch a win in the conference tournament to give its young team, which consists of zero scholarship seniors, a headstart on the 2021-2022 season.
Pick: Northwestern -1
Butler vs. Xavier - 8:00 PM
The Butler Bulldogs are a prime example of parlaying a strong NCAA Tournament performance into long-term sustained success and an improved trajectory for the program. As recently as 2012, Butler played as a member of the Horizon League, a traditional one-bid "mid-major" league. Thanks to five straight NCAA Tournament appearances (and two consecutive National Title appearances) under current Celtics Coach Brad Stevens, the team joined the Big East conference. The conference improvement has brought about a significant increase in available funding, improved recruiting and an opportunity to actually make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tournament. While Coach LaVall Jordan's team is in a rebuilding year, the Bulldogs are always a threat to make a run.
The Xavier Musketeers are as bubbly as it gets this year. A 13-7 record, and a relatively milquetoast nonconference schedule leaves Coach Travis Steele's team with little wiggle room. Sophomore forward Zach Freemantle provides the Musketeers with one of the better interior scorers in the conference, teaming up well with the stars on the perimeter - Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson. Freemantle paces the way with 16.3 points per game and 9.0 rebounds per game. Scruggs, a third-year starter, is returning home to Indianapolis for the site of the tournament and he hopes to make it a prolonged stay as the NCAA Tournament will also be held in an Indianapolis "bubble."
Pick: Over 133.5
Sacramento State vs. Northern Colorado - 11:00 AM
In the early bird game, the Big Sky Conference pits two conference opponents who have yet to face each other in this odd year, with schedules shaken up due to COVID. Coach Brian Katz's team has been in a rut of late, with a 2-8 record since the end of January. This Hornets squad features a starting lineup full of five seniors, but that experience has not yet played itself into success on the court. Forward Ethan Esposito, a native of Naples, Italy, by way of Torrey Pines, California, leads the team in scoring with 18.3 points per game. The "hometown hero" is guard Christian Terrell, who comes from nearby Sacramento High School, and often finds himself playing as an undersized forward, which partially can explain the Hornets' dismal 310th ranking in rebounds per game.
The Northern Colorado Bears are led by Coach Steve Smiley, in his first season in charge of the Greeley, Colorado program. Smiley spent four years as the top assistant, and has continued to lead a strong defense, paired with a slow-paced offense. The Bears feature four players averaging double figure scoring, and a slew of juniors who will use this year's experiences to come back even stronger next year. Point guard Tre'Shon Smoots, a native of Sacramento State who opted to join the Bears over his hometown team, should revel in the opportunity to prove the Hornets wrong for passing on him as a recruit.
Pick: Northern Colorado -2
Penn State vs. Nebraska - 9:00 PM
The Penn State Nittany Lions have overcome a variety of struggles this year, including replacing their former head coach Pat Chambers in the month running up to the season. The team has not gotten its expected contributions from Binghamton transfer guard Sam Sessoms. Sessoms was an electric scorer in the America East conference, scoring over 1,000 points during his two seasons in Binghamton, but has been an inefficient volume shooter in his first year at State College. Interim Coach Jim Ferry has leaned on sophomore forward Seth Lundy for more and more offensive punch down-the-stretch and it seems to be paying off. The Nittany Lions sport a young team, and will commence a national search for their new head coach at the conclusion of this year.
Coach Fred Hoiberg's team is the worst in the Big Ten by a long-shot. With only 3 conference wins, and a very poor offense AND defense, this team needs a wholesale change starting with recruiting. Hoiberg brought in several transfers who have yet to mesh into a winning cohesive unit, but former West Virginia forward Teddy Allen and former Pitt guard Trey McGowens do offer the offensive creation and spark. With Allen presently unavailable, McGowens, former Western Illinois guard Kobe Webster, and former TCU forward Lat Mayen have been forced to take on more responsibilities and shot creation than they are normally accustomed. Icelandic guard Thorir Thorbjarnarson is a non-threat on offense, but does offer one of the team's better defensive wing players and is the only player still on the roster from former Coach Tim Miles' tenure.
Pick: Penn State -7
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