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Happy March! In this article every week, we'll be reviewing some of the top college basketball games of the day to see how we can beat Vegas. Today's slate of games brings us into the heart of the conference tournament season. Wednesday was a solid 3-1-1 start to the conference tournament season. Thus far, there have been a few surprises in the conference tournaments, such as Northern Iowa being downright shocked by eighth-seeded Drake and its bubble hopes being dashed.
Here are some of the top college basketball expert betting picks for Saturday, March 7. Let me know your thoughts, and follow me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
Season record to date: 41-44-2 (-2.5 units)
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Western Carolina vs. Mercer - 2:30 pm
The Western Carolina Catamounts have been one of the most exciting teams in college basketball this season. Sporting an 18-11 record and entering the Southern Conference in the #5 seed, Coach Mark Prosser's team ranks 18th in the country scoring nearly 80 points per game in an up-tempo offense. Redshirt junior guard Mason Faulkner transferred into the program from Northern Kentucky and instantly became one of the top players in the conference. With the do-it-all Faulkner and senior double-double machine Carlos Dotson leading the way, the Catamounts pose a challenge as a sleeper that could pose a threat to top-seeded East Tennessee State.
Coach Greg Gary navigated the Mercer Bears to a fourth-place finish in the conference in his first year at the Georgia university. The Bears have been led by senior guard Djordje Dimitrijevic, who emerged as an all-Southern Conference performer this season. The Bears lost the first game between these teams in January but exacted revenge a few weeks later to even the season series. The Bears' defense has been a weak point and may struggle against the Catamounts' perimeter attack.
Pick: Western Carolina -1
Boston College @ Florida State - 4:30 pm
With the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in the middle of a down-year, the Boston College Eagles had a ripe opportunity to emerge as a conference leader this season but seemingly never grasped the chance. Graduate transfer point guard Derryck Thornton, who previously had stops at USC and Duke, is a former 5-star recruit that has led the Eagles in scoring but his final collegiate year has not gone according to plan. With no possibility of the NIT or the NCAA Tournament, Coach Jim Christian is likely entering the final days of his tenure as the Head Coach, unless he can pull off the unthinkable and make a strong run through the conference tournament to obtain the automatic bid.
Florida State needed a pair of late free throws, but they were able to win a crucial road game at Notre Dame. With a win tonight, Florida State would clinch the ACC regular-season crown and solidify its status on the 2-seed line in the NCAA Tournament. The Seminoles have entered the phase of the schedule where the most important thing is to win, no matter how ugly. The Noles have not beaten a team by more than 16.5 points in over a month, and have played more low scoring affairs recently as they reach towards their goal of securing a strong seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Pick: Boston College +16.5
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts (UMass) - 7:00 pm
Little over a month ago, most mock brackets were projecting the Rhode Island Rams as a safe bet for an NCAA Tournament at-large berth. After a dismal recent stretch that has seen the Rams drop four of their past seven games, that previous assurance appears to have been misplaced. The Rams now find themselves on the outside looking in and in desperate need of wins. Rhode Island will need to win out the regular season and spin together at least a few wins in the conference tournament to re-enter its position as a team worthy of an at-large berth.
UMass is in the midst of a rebuilding season, and the Minutemen seem to have found the program-defining building block that they were missing. Coach Matt McCall's team relies heavily on freshmen, but none more so than star freshman center Tre Mitchell. Mitchell, a four-star recruit from the Pittsburgh area and one of the highest-rated recruits in recent UMass history, is averaging over 17 points per game and has the look of a player who will be a problem for opposing Atlantic-10 coaches for years to come. With Mitchell and other promising freshmen does come the drawback of inconsistent play, middling defensive performance and longstanding offensive droughts where the team tends to fall into spells of "hero-ball" expecting Mitchell to create and score all on his own.
Pick: Rhode Island -3
Hawaii @ Cal-State Northridge (CSUN - 10:00 pm
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have had a solid 17-12 season so far in the Big West. The team has played a soft schedule, and relies on its strong perimeter defense, as they allow the fifth-least 3-point field goals in the nation. Junior point guard Drew Buggs is the orchestrator of the offense and leads the way with five assists per game. Hawaii is slowly building a competing program and Brazilian freshman forward Bernardo Da Silva has the makings of a program-altering player in a few years. Despite a promising future, Hawaii has lost six of its last nine and may struggle to be motivated for a meaningless regular-season road game, or be looking ahead towards the conference tournament which begins next week.
The CSUN Matadors have been team that has rounded into form and is playing its best basketball at the right time. Coach Mark Gottfried's team is led by the star duo of Terrell Gomez and Lamine Diane, two names that NBA scouts are keeping a close eye on. The pair of high-flying scorers are leading a resurgent team that recently knocked off the Big West-leading UC Irvine.
Pick: CSUN -3
Stanford @ Oregon - 11:00 pm
Stanford has played itself onto the right side of the bubble with a strong recent month of play. In a relatively strong year for the Pac-12, the Stanford Cardinal has emerged by winning four of its past five games and garnering a top-30 NET ranking. Their non-conference win over Oklahoma looks better every day, and they have shown an ability to play with anyone in the conference, thanks to game-changing forward Oscar Da Silva and an impressive defense, which allows only 61.9 points per game, ranking 12th in the country. Thursday's loss to Oregon State will renew the bubble fear, and Stanford would be well-served to notch another strong road win to boost its resume and put to rest the bubble discussion.
Oregon finds itself as one of the top teams in the Pac-12 and likely to be the top-seeded team in the NCAA Tournament to represent the Pac-12. Coach Dana Altman's team is led by one of the top players in the country, senior guard Payton Pritchard. Pritchard, who was the star of last year's Sweet 16 team, is averaging over 20 points per game and has been a source of fits for opposing defense. Alongside Pritchard, Coach Altman brought in a very well-regarded recruiting class including the top junior college player, guard Chris Duarte. Duarte contributes across the board and had a three-game stretch where he had 21 total steals in conference play. The Ducks dropped the earlier game between these teams.
Pick: Stanford +8
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
