The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 19

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 19. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

The MLB trade deadline is tomorrow and that will soon be followed by trade deadlines in many fantasy leagues, leaving waivers/free agency as the only remaining option to improve our teams. To do that, we'll need to make drops and as we enter the final weeks of the season, we also have to make tougher decisions. And sometimes the toughest decision is to keep a scuffling player who could end up having a big finish to the season.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:

• Nick Mariano's fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups (Premium)
• Start/Sit recommendations - All Pitcher Matchups for Week Ahead
• Fantasy baseball waiver wire rankings (top 80 players)
• FAAB fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Outfield fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• 1B/3B fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• 2B/SS fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Catcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Hitter streamers - fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Two-start pitcher streamers - fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Cut List- Players To Consider Dropping

 

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

A.J. Puk - RP, Miami Marlins - 61% rostered

Those of you who have asked me about whether or not a closer is droppable will know I tend to have the same answer; no, but by all means trade them. That's purely down to the fact that in almost every league if a closer is dropped, they will be picked up. So they have value to another team.

In an era where multiple teams have no defined closers and go with matchups and committees, that's not a hard and fast rule. In the case of Puk, there are more factors as to why I believe he's worth replacing on your fantasy rosters with the biggest one coming on Thursday.

Since June 1, the Marlins' bullpen has combined for a total of 13 saves. Puk has 10 of them. George Soriano has one (a three-inning save in a blowout win) and Dylan Floro has the other two. It was fair to say Puk had been the Marlins' closer.

Unfortunately, Puk has been struggling in July and seemed to be losing his grip on the role. On the year, Puk has a 4-4 W-L record, 4.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 44 Ks (33.1 IP). So far in July, Puk has a 9.72 ERA, two losses, and three blown saves (7.1 IP).

Floro could've taken over as the closer but was traded to the Twins. Tanner Scott has emerged as the Marlins' best reliever, with a 2.38 ERA since June 1 (22.2 IP). And the Marlins traded for Jorge Lopez, sending Floro the other way.

Lopez had a 5.09 ERA (35.1 IP) with the Twins this year and a 6.57 ERA since June 1, so it seemed unlikely that the Marlins would turn to him to lockdown the ninth innings. Then it appeared as though the Marlins finally addressed the back end of their bullpen by trading for David Robertson.

If we look at a timeline of recent events, it paints a puzzling picture that has seemingly got clarity following Thursday's move.

• July 18, Puk takes the loss after allowing three runs (two earned) in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Cardinals.
• July 21, Skip Schumaker gives Puk a vote of confidence and confirms he remains the closer but Scott will see more higher-leverage spots.

• July 22, Puk pitches a clean eighth inning in a tie-game before Scott gives up the go-ahead run in the ninth inning and takes the loss.
• July 23, Scott pitches a clean eighth inning with the Marlins up by one run. Puk is called to close out the game in the ninth inning but gives up a game-tying homer before being pulled following another hit and a walk, recording just two outs.
• July 26, the Marlins trade for Lopez, sending Floro to the Twins.
• July 28, the Marlins trade for Robertson from the Mets.

If you haven't worked it out, the bullpen in Miami has been a bit of a mess and the Marlins decided to try and solidify things by trading for Robertson. Now, they could still go with a committee of Puk and Robertson (with a bit of Scott), but I suspect Robertson will be the lead in any such scenario.

Friday probably removed any doubt that Robertson will be the main closer after Scott and Puk both gave up a run as they beat the Tigers 6-5. Puk got the ninth up two runs and tallied three strikeouts. According to the MLB, that secured him the win rather than a save......

As of Sunday morning, MLB.com is still showing Puk as having the win on Friday rather than the save. It'll be worth checking your leagues to see what he has been credited with as it could be subject to a stat correction.

We should get some answers in the coming days as to how the Marlins plan on using Puk, Robertson, and Scott. Maybe holding on for another week isn't a bad plan. But don't miss out on adding someone because you hold onto Puk for an extra week.

Verdict: If you are in a deep league or struggling for saves, keeping Puk makes sense and I wouldn't bet against him finding some form again this year and grabbing the odd save. But, if you have a need elsewhere or need to sacrifice someone to activate a player off of your IL, I wouldn't lose any sleep if you send Puk to waivers. He may have lost all fantasy value by this time next week.

Brandon Lowe - 2B, Tampa Bay Rays - 51% rostered

For the second straight season, Brandon Lowe has missed significant time with a back issue. And for the second straight season, he's also failed to come close to replicating his 2021 season, when he hit 39 homers with a .247/.340/.523 slash line.

In 2023, Lowe is slashing .218/.316/.423 with 12 homers, 37 RBI, 32 runs, and five stolen bases (69 games). Lowe hasn't been too bad after missing a month with the back injury and is slashing .259/.368/.500 since his return on July 4. The problem is, he's only got eight RBI and six runs in those 19 games.

That's despite homering three times and is largely down to the Rays' offense cooling off significantly. After being the second-highest run scorer in the first three months of the season, the Rays rank last in runs scored in July (74).

There are two main reasons why I'm fine dropping Lowe (excluding the concern I have about his seemingly chronic back issues). The first is his splits against left-handed pitching (LHP) and right-handed pitching (RHP). The second being he's just not performed well.

If we take a look at his Statcast Profile, we can get a picture of how poorly he's performed.

A lack of consistent good contact, a lot of strikeouts, and a dreadful batting average don't lend themselves to much fantasy production. The walk rate (11.9% BB%) has always been a strength of Lowe's and the 11.4% Barrel% is also good but it isn't enough to offset the rest of his hit profile.

Then, there are his splits. Lowe has always struggled against LHP. Even in 2021 during his huge breakout season, he only hit .198/.261/.401 with an 83 wRC+ against lefties. But he made up for it by hitting .270/.375/.581 against righties with a 161 wRC+.

The Rays do tend to limit his at-bats against LHP and as we can see below, they're wise to continue doing so.

Split	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	wRC+
Vs LHP	26	0	.174	.269	.174	30.8%	11.5%	36
Vs RHP	243	12	.223	.321	.450	27.2%	11.9%	118

Obviously, 26 plate appearances aren't much to go on but the Rays clearly want to minimize how often he faces LHP. Lowe is going to get fewer at-bats than most other hitters on your roster.

Lowe is also one of the hitters with nearly identical expected numbers to his actual stats. He's sporting a .216 xBA, .420 xSLG, and .322 xwOBA (.325 wOBA). Hoping for a change in fortunes won't help in this case as Lowe has been performing as his numbers suggest.

I certainly don't believe the Rays' offense will continue to struggle this much for the remainder of the season. But I also didn't buy into their early-season numbers. Being a slightly better-than-average offense may help Lowe but that's all I'd be expecting over the final two months.

Verdict: Lowe still has some pop and there are not a lot of options to replace him with at second base. So in deeper leagues, if you need the power, holding makes sense. Outside of that, there isn't really much reason to keep Lowe around and I'd be looking at alternative options for your team if you can.

Jake McCarthy - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - 48% rostered

It's been a curious season for Jake McCarthy. He was generally being drafted inside the top 30 outfielders after displaying his speed last year (23 steals in 99 games) while hitting for a solid average (.283).

McCarthy started the season hitting .143/.229/.238 in his first 22 games and that was enough to see him demoted. Since being recalled in late May, he has hit .299/.370/.396 (52 games).

For the season, McCarthy has two homers, 14 RBI, 32 runs, and 23 stolen bases with a .256/.331/.352 slash line. He generally doesn't face LHP but he has been in the Diamondbacks' lineup more than he's sat courtesy of being on the strong side of a platoon.

If you didn't know what sort of hitter McCarthy is, his Hits Spray Chart above should show you. He lacks power, looks to make contact, and slaps the ball the other way, using his speed to beat out infield hits. It's a similar style to Steven Kwan but without the elite K%.

And that's not a bad thing. It plays to his strength and best utilizes his speed, which is what you are interested in for your fantasy teams. This leads me to 'what to do if you roster McCarthy'.

Simply put, he's only really helping you with stolen bases. There's little power and he won't tally many RBI hitting in the bottom part of the order and with such limited power. But he'll continue to score a decent amount of runs and McCarthy can put up a .280 batting average over the final two months.

McCarthy is pretty much a two-category contributor with a sprinkling of runs. Whether you roster him entirely depends on if that is what you need. And while he's included in this section, he's by no means a definitive drop. It's entirely dependent on your team's needs.

If you don't require the steals, there's a good chance someone in your league does so before you consider dropping McCarthy. I'd make sure to explore a possible trade as he has value with his legs.

Verdict: McCarthy is by no means a surefire 'drop', but it's so entirely reliant on what your team needs. He's also not someone I'd consider as undroppable. If you don't need the stolen bases, just make sure to explore the trade market in your league first before consigning McCarthy to the waiver wire.

 

Hold For Now

Jorge Soler - OF, Miami Marlins - 85% rostered

Jorge Soler ranks tied-12th for homers this year but has seen his rostership drop after a disappointing July. In truth, outside of a torrid May, Soler has only been a solid source of power and a decent fantasy option rather than the league winner fantasy managers thought he might be in May.

On the year, Soler has 24 homers, 54 RBI, 56 runs, and one stolen base with a .240/.331/.485 slash line. At present, Soler is on course to have the second-best year of his career, behind only his 48-homer 2019 campaign.

There's never been any disputing Soler's power, but his consistency is what has been lacking. Last year, nine of his 13 homers came in May with the other four coming in April and June. In 2021, 21 of his 27 homers came in the second half of the season.

We can see how inconsistent Soler can be by looking at his monthly splits so far this year.

Month	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	wRC+
April	107	5	.221	.308	.463	23.4%	108
May	121	12	.271	.350	.626	28.1%	160
June	103	5	.238	.369	.452	16.5%	128
July	95	2	.224	.284	.365	30.5%	77

What can we expect from Soler over the remaining couple of months? Well, your guess is as good as mine. He could rattle off back-to-back months with double-digit homers or he could hit .200 with five homers and a 30.0% K% during the rest of this season.

The reality remains though that Soler is one of the premier power sources in baseball. Even after a disappointing July, there's no reason to believe he can't go on a rampage. I'd be loathe to drop him unless home runs are meaningless to you in your league.

Ezequiel Duran - 2B/3B/SS/OF - 68% rostered

Ezequiel Duran is a player that sits in between the 'Hold For Now' and 'Worth Dropping and Replacing' sections. But I'm putting him in here for now as I'm more of a believer than a naysayer.

Duran was arguably the headline player the Rangers received in the now-infamous Joey Gallo to the Yankees trade. And after flashing a bit of his power/speed potential in 58 games last year, Duran has emerged as a regular in the Rangers' outfield this year.

The Rangers' outfield looked to be a weak point coming into this season but Duran has helped solidify it, hitting .287/.330/.490 with 13 homers, 38 RBI, 41 runs, and five steals (81 games). If you extrapolate that over a full season, we're looking at ~25 homers, ~80 RBI, ~80 runs, and ~10 stolen bases.

Given Duran has almost exclusively hit in the bottom third of the Rangers' lineup, those counting stats are impressive and a testament to how good the offense has been in Texas.

The question is, how legitimate are Duran's numbers and whether or not he can sustain his success? There's no getting away from the fact Duran has had a rotten July, hitting .179/.233/.269 with a 36 wRC+.

But we can't ignore the fact Duran hit .320/.361/.557 with a 152 wRC+ in the first three months of the season. And the reason I'm more in the believer camp is the quality of contact he's been making all season.

There's no denying that Duran is aggressive at the plate and a bit of a free-swinger. His 54.2% Swing% is the 15th-highest among the 164 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. In points leagues, that can have a bigger impact.

In standard leagues, Duran has been contributing across the board. While I'm not convinced he repeats his early-season numbers, I certainly believe he'll be a viable option over the remainder of this season. He has shown enough upside to make us believe there could be more to come.

Being eligible to fill in at four different positions in your lineups also holds value, especially in deeper leagues. Even if he's just a bench bat that you slot in when needed, Duran can still contribute in most leagues over the remainder of 2023.

The Rangers could still trade for an outfielder. Given Duran has spent most of his time at DH or in left field since Corey Seager returned from his early-season injury, that could impact his playing time. That would possibly move Duran into the 'safe to drop zone'.

Braxton Garrett - SP, Miami Marlins - 54% rostered

Prior to Friday's start, I had Braxton Garrett firmly in the 'Hold For Now' section. Even though it was against the Tigers, Garrett vindicated that by completing 6.0 IP without allowing an earned run and striking out six.

That's left his season line at a 5-3 W-L record, 4.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 117 Ks (106.0 IP). That's pretty good going for a pitcher who was largely undrafted this year.

The main reason Garrett went undrafted was he didn't have a secure spot in the Marlins' rotation to start the year, despite putting up a 3.58 ERA in 17 starts (88.0 IP) last year. Garrett did make the Opening Day roster and after an inauspicious start to the season, gave up 11 runs against the Braves on May 3.

That took his ERA to 5.81 and his rostership down to almost zero. Since then, Garrett has a 3.50 ERA in 15 starts (79.2 IP) but a disappointing July has seen fantasy managers send him packing. Friday's start could be the beginning of a big final two months.

The reason I say that is down to Garrett's underlying numbers. On the year, Garrett has a 3.08 xFIP and 3.27 SIERA, suggesting his 4.08 ERA is unlucky. That's further evidenced by his .327 BABIP.

And Garrett is a prime example of why I say you shouldn't use a player's Statcast Profile as an 'all-or-nothing' tool. His is pretty putrid.

Clearly, Garrett gives up hard contact. But he strikes out plenty and only walks a few, which helps to minimize the damage. Garrett also keeps the ball in the ballpark, with a 47.5% GB% (groundball rate). That is the 20th-highest among 104 qualified pitchers and his 20.7% FB% (fly ball rate) is the 12th-lowest.

As mentioned, Garrett hasn't been productive this month. Prior to Friday, he'd made four starts in July (18.1 IP) with a 7.85 ERA. The reason I wasn't too concerned by that was down to his 3.90 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA during those four starts.

There will be the odd game when Garrett runs into trouble when the hard-hit balls find gaps and he gives up more fly balls. My main concern with Garrett was on full display Friday when he left the game with a 4-1 lead after six innings.

Four Marlins relievers combined to give up four runs in three innings (all allowing one earned run each) to end hopes of Garrett picking up a sixth win of the season. Maybe Robertson can solidify things.

In shallow leagues, Garrett is probably more of a top-end streaming option. Given the ineffectiveness and injuries to starting pitchers we've seen, I'd have no problem continuing to roster Garrett and starting him most of the time.

 

On the Hot Seat

Mitch Keller - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates - 86% rostered

A bit like Garrett, Mitch Keller was someone I still wanted to give more time to before Friday's start following two disastrous outings in which Keller allowed 14 earned runs in 11.0 IP.

And on Friday, Keller was better with eight strikeouts over 5.2 IP and allowing two earned runs against the Phillies. That's left Keller sporting a 9-7 W-L record, 3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 145 Ks in 22 starts (133.2 IP).

Keller is a name that has been mentioned in trade rumors for some time. Given he's not eligible for free agency until 2026, he is a coveted starting pitcher. The reality is, unless he's traded to somewhere like Cincinnati where the ballpark would be a huge downgrade, Keller going to a contender should help his value.

Keller has 12 quality starts and nine wins. In the seven games in which Keller has failed to complete six innings, he has an 0-6 W-L record. With the Pirates' offense ranking 26th in runs scored (429), wins won't be easy to come by if Keller remains in Pittsburgh.

I alluded to Keller's two dreadful starts prior to Friday. If we look at Keller's monthly splits, prior to July he had been one of the more consistent starting pitchers in the first half.

Month	IP	ERA	xFIP	SIERA	AVG	K%	BB%
April	35.2	3.53	3.72	3.86	.230	26.8%	8.1%
May	39.0	3.00	2.38	2.55	.223	33.8%	3.2%
June	30.1	3.56	4.31	4.44	.214	19.8%	8.7%
July	28.2	6.28	4.79	4.75	.288	20.5%	9.1%

The two things that really stand out are how Keller's June and July xFIP and SIERA are similar, yet his ERA is notably higher in July. And how Keller's strikeouts have dropped off significantly since May.

That is why he finds himself on the Hot Seat. Not due to a couple of bad outings this month. But in reality, his struggles have been going on for two months and have only just begun to be noticeable.

One of the biggest reasons for that is the quality of contact against his main pitches has gone up, especially his cutter. Keller has thrown his cutter 22.3% of the time this year, his second-most-used pitch.

And as we can see below, the slugging percentage against it has gone up considerably.

The slugging percentage against his cutter has ballooned but Keller has at least cut its usage, throwing it 17.8% of the time in July. But it still had a .875 SLG against it, which is huge. Keller has allowed more homers off his cutter (five) than any other pitch.

A change in scenery might help rectify that as a different pitching coach might identify certain things and implement a different usage rate given Keller throws six pitches.

And as a fantasy manager, I do want to see Keller in a different location with different ideas and hopefully, more run support. If his struggles can be remedied by changing his arsenal somewhat, Keller has displayed his capabilities and should be a top-40 SP over the remainder of the season.

However, if he remains in Pittsburgh this year and continues to struggle with diminished strikeouts and seeing his most-thrown pitches give up the hardest contact, then we may have to pull the plug on Keller in 2023 and consign him to waivers.

 

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover at least three requests each week.

Jonathan India - 2B, Cincinnati Reds - 92% rostered

Earlier this season, stories about the Reds possibly trading Jonathan India were shut down. India was deemed a clubhouse leader, the heartbeat of the team, and despite the Reds' seemingly endless young infield talent, India was staying put.

Then earlier this week, rumors were circling that the Reds were willing to listen to offers for India in exchange for pitching help. That doesn't mean they will definitely trade him of course but India is still someone who could be playing for a different team over the final two months of this season.

There are two reasons I mention that, despite the fact they might not come into any thinking in regards to fantasy baseball. One is the possibility India ends up in a worse situation and the second is the mental impact of having his name uttered in potential trade talks constantly.

The reason the first part is important is how good India's current situation is. Not only have the Reds been one of the better teams offensively in recent weeks, ranking sixth in runs scored since June 1 (257), but their home ballpark remains one of the most hitter-friendly.

The second reason is something we can't quantify but is something I've mentioned previously. We never know what impact things like this have on a player (or any off-field issues for that matter) but it is worth remembering that players are humans. Knowing he could be traded at any moment might be playing on his mind.

I'm not going to use that as the reason for his recent struggles (as we simply don't know) but it could certainly be playing a part. Since June 1, India is hitting .215/.298/.392 (47 games). Over the whole season, India is hitting .251/.336/.410 with 14 homers, 52 RBI, 68 runs, and 12 stolen bases.

A more pertinent reason for India's struggles came to light on Saturday when he was scratched from the starting lineup due to heel discomfort. It's something India has apparently been dealing with for a few weeks and we're awaiting news from the MRI underwent yesterday.

That news has basically thrown out any need to delve into his numbers. If it's been bugging India for a few weeks, it's safe to attribute that to why his numbers have fallen away. It might also end up being the reason he isn't traded away in the next 24 hours.

For now, we just have to await the MRI results. Given the way India has performed while dealing with the issue and the depth the Reds have in their infield, it's quite plausible they put him on the IL, even if it is just for 10 days to rest it. Until we know more, there's not much left to do.

Anthony Rizzo - 1B, New York Yankees - 79% rostered

Back in the Week 14 edition, Anthony Rizzo was one of four Yankees to feature and was the only one I was keen to suggest is worth holding. At that time, Rizzo was riding a 25-game homerless streak.

He then went on to go 20 more games before finally hitting a home run last Sunday. He followed that up by going 0-for-9 in two games against the Mets and then went 2-for-8 in the first two games of their series with the Orioles.

What has made Rizzo's struggles all the more frustrating is how well he started the season. It's been a campaign of two halves so far for Rizzo as the below graph demonstrates.

In the first two months of the season, Rizzo hit .304/.376/.505 with 11 homers (53 games). Since June 1, Rizzo is hitting .173/.279/.231 (43 games). The difference couldn't be much starker.

Rizzo's 22.1% K% and 8.6% BB% are both the worst he has had in a decade and another indicator of how badly he's struggled. He currently ranks as the 29th first baseman this year. But don't fear, everything is okay again as Aaron Judge has returned and will make every Yankee hitter better.

Okay, maybe not. But his return could give the likes of Rizzo a boost and a much-needed one at that. I don't envision him coming close to repeating what he did in April and May but I don't believe he's as bad as he has been over the last two months.

If you've been holding onto Rizzo for this long, I'd probably give him a little bit more time to see if Judge's magical powers rub off on him. And if you've held on this long, you've got the patience of a saint. I certainly feel like he can end the year with 20+ homers still.

Luke Raley - 1B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 55% rostered

Luke Raley went from being undrafted this offseason to the 16th-ranked first baseman and 30th-ranked outfielder (116th overall). But fantasy managers are questioning whether Raley is legit or is still worthwhile in rostering.

We don't have much of a track record to go off with Raley given he only had a total of 144 plate appearances in the majors over the previous two years. In 2023, Raley is hitting .269/.358/.538 with 15 homers, 39 RBI, 45 runs, and 11 steals (83 games).

Raley's ability to help across all categories has been his main asset, especially the stolen bases at a corner infield spot. Only three first-base-eligible players have more steals than Raley and only 11 total players can boast 15+ homers, 10+ steals, and a batting average of .270 or better.

As is the Rays' way and in a similar vein to Lowe, Raley seldom faces LHP, with just 23 of his 286 plate appearances this year coming against lefties. But Raley does have a 109 wRC+ against LHP this year. Albeit a small sample, he's at least shown competency against them.

And Raley's Statcast Profile is rather telling. He makes a lot of quality contact but he swings and misses. A lot.

That does leave him less valuable in some points leagues, especially with the below-average walk rate (7.3% BB%). But the quality of contact has maintained Raley's fantasy relevancy.

He's also shown multiple ways of providing value each month. Raley's 119 wRC+ in July is actually his lowest mark this year but is still better than average. In April, Raley only had a .226 batting average but hit seven homers. In June, he hit .348 with only three homers.

As mentioned earlier when assessing Lowe, the Rays' offense has fallen off a cliff lately, which is why Raley has just eight RBI and three runs this month. He's hitting .233/.343/.417 in July with two homers and two steals, so he has at least chipped in with a bit of power and speed.

I don't think we see another month where Raley hits seven homers or has a .348 batting average. But I also don't think he slides into irrelevancy and the Rays' offense will surely improve in the coming weeks.

Raley has more value in daily roster move leagues given his propensity to be on the bench against lefties. Being eligible at two positions obviously helps managers put him into their lineups where best when he does start.

If you have been rostering Raley, I don't see any reason to drop him at this point unless you have considerably better options at outfield and corner infield. I wouldn't be too alarmed by the recent lack of production, making Raley not really a drop candidate.

But he is a bit like Lowe where I would consider dropping him if there is a specific need you need immediate help in or if someone appears on waivers that would be a big upgrade to your team somewhere.

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