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Running backs have the shortest shelf life of any offensive position in the NFL, often playing at a high level for only three to five years. As a result, there is constant turnover, creating opportunities for emerging young players to break out. Identifying running backs who are declining in effectiveness and those on the cusp of a breakout is extremely valuable in fantasy football, as it allows you to stay ahead of the trends and gain an edge over your competition.
Beyond simply evaluating the raw numbers, there are underlying metrics that provide a more accurate assessment of a player's talent and efficiency. One such metric for running backs is missed tackles forced (MTF), which tracks the number of times opposing defenders failed to tackle them during rushing attempts. Typically, strong runners will create them by breaking tackles while more elusive players manage to avoid the defender altogether. In both cases, the result is additional yards gained, which equates to more fantasy points. It also impresses coaches and coordinators, resulting in more playing time and often a larger role.
Below, you'll find five sleepers—undervalued players based on their 2022 performance and current FFPC ADP—and four busts—players who may be overvalued due to a decline in performance. Each list will count down to the top sleeper or bust. Let's dig in!
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Sleepers
A note for the sleepers, a minimum of 10 missed tackles forced in 2022 is the cutoff.
#5 Jordan Mason (San Francisco 49ers)
Mason kicks off the list as the final player to make the cutoff. In his limited playing time, he managed to force exactly 10 missed tackles on 43 rushing attempts, resulting in an average rate of 23.3% of his total carries. While the sample size is small, it's important to consider that he was playing behind Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey. Obviously, that's going to be the case in 2023 as well. However, it's worth noting that Mitchell has only played in 16 out of 34 possible regular season games in his career. Furthermore, while McCaffrey stayed healthy last season, his participation was limited in the previous two years, playing in only 10 games.
Mason was drafted last year along with Tyrion Davis-Price, who garnered a lot of hype but didn't perform well when given the opportunity. Statistically, Mason outperformed Davis-Price, boasting a higher yards per carry average (6.0 vs. 2.9), more rushing yards (258 vs. 99), and more missed tackles forced (10 vs. 7). As the third back on the depth chart for a top-five rushing offense, Mason is going undrafted in most FFPC drafts, making him a perfect sleeper to target and stash late.
#4 Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Warren was also a member of the 2022 draft class and joined the Steelers as a backup to Najee Harris. Harris struggled with injuries and inconsistency, particularly in the first half of last year. Warren forced 19 missed tackles on just 77 rushing attempts, resulting in an average rate of 24.7% of his carries. He also generated 379 yards, averaging 4.92 yards per carry.
Although he remains firmly behind the starter, Harris, the coaching staff demonstrated a growing appreciation for Warren by increasing his workload down the stretch. he received double-digit carries in two of his final four outings. While Pittsburgh is famous for riding a workhorse back, there is a possibility that their philosophy is changing, much like the rest of the NFL. Warren is expected to serve as the primary insurance back, and there's a chance he could provide weekly flex value, making him a great option at his current ADP of 161.
#3 James Cook (Buffalo Bills)
Another sophomore tailback to consider is Cook, who was selected 63rd overall by the Bills in 2022. While there is certainly some concern after he failed to secure the lead-back role from Devin Singletary in 2022, it's worth noting that the team allowed Singletary to walk and brought in Damien Harris as a replacement. Unlike the other two aforementioned backs, Harris lacks receiving skills. Despite his limited playing time, Cook performed well with his opportunities. He forced 19 missed tackles on 89 rushing attempts, resulting in an average rate of 21.3%. He also averaged 5.7 yards per carry and had the 17th most breakaway runs (15-plus yards). His explosiveness makes him a perfect fit for fantasy because he can score more points per touch than the average player, meaning he can still succeed with a smaller workload.
Moreover, the Bills have emphasized the importance of protecting Josh Allen, which may translate into an increased focus on the running game or giving more carries to the backfield. They finished third in pass rate over expectation last season, indicating an aggressive approach. While they were 16th in rushing attempts overall, they showed an inclination to attack opponents on the ground during the second half of the season. From Week 10 onwards, they averaged 29.4 passing attempts per game compared to 24.4 in the first nine weeks. Although Cook's current ADP is slightly higher at 83, his upside is greater than that of most players around him because of the Bills' potent offense.
#2 Khalil Herbert (Chicago Bears)
The Bears are on the rise with an exciting young offense that could make some noise in 2023. Yet, they decided to move forward without their workhorse back, David Montgomery. Money is always a contributing factor but so is Herbert, who has consistently delivered when called upon. Last year, Herbert forced 29 missed tackles on just 129 rushing attempts, resulting in an average rate of 22.5%. Plus, he was fifth in effectiveness and fourth in rush yards over expected among all NFL tailbacks.
Furthermore, in the three games he played without Montgomery in 2021 and 2022, he finished as the RB11, RB9, and RB1 in half-PPR scoring. Last year, he produced a top-25 finish in five of his other 12 games last season with Montgomery. The Bears elected to bring in D'Onta Foreman on a one-year deal and draft Roschon Johnson in the fourth round but neither player is as electric as Herbert. With an ADP of 95, it's clear that drafters are nervous about the other members in this backfield, which is creating a discount in his value.
#1 Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings)
It's a little odd to consider someone like Mattison as a sleeper, given his name recognition, but when evaluating his potential, he deserves to be here as much as anyone else. Let's start with his 23 missed tackles forced on a mere 77 attempts for an average rate of 29.9%, which is by far the highest mark on this list. Much like Herbert, Mattison has showcased his fantasy potential when given the opportunity to fill in for Dalvin Cook, with notable finishes such as RB4 in Week 18 last season, as well as finishes of RB9, RB7, and RB5 in 2021.
Moreover, the team signed him to a two-year, $7 million deal, including $6.35M guaranteed. Couple this with the rumors that Cook is a potential trade or cut candidate, and this makes Mattison a very intriguing option.
The news continues to trend toward him getting cut, unless a team is willing to trade for him, or he wants to restructure his deal. While neither option seems likely at the moment, you would assume that for a player in Mattison's situation, combined with his talent, his ADP would be skyrocketing. However, he's currently sitting at an ADP of 84 (RB30). While there may be concerns regarding Cook's future with the team, the opportunity to find a running back with top-15 upside at such a late draft position is very rare. And that makes Mattison the cream of the crop.
Busts
#4 Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints)
In regards to missed tackles forced, Kamara ended the year with only 34 of them on 223 rushing attempts for an average rate of 15.2%. Furthermore, he failed to find the end zone in 13 of his 15 games played. Towards the end of the season, he was on the field for 70% or fewer of the offensive snaps in five of his final seven contests. It's not a good sign for an aging tailback with off-the-field issues. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood that Kamara will face a suspension during the season, most likely at the beginning, pending the outcome of the investigation. The suspension could range from four to 10 games, depending on the findings. We can't discount the possibility of a more extended suspension either if something unexpected arises.
Adding fuel to the fire here is the Saints' signing of Jamaal Williams, who excels at the goal line and can pound the rock. The drafting of Kendre Miller 71st overall adds another factor that suggests potential trouble for Kamara. Despite these factors, Kamara still possesses an ADP of 91, which is a steep price for a player that projects to be a rotational back in a committee and will likely miss games due to suspension.
#3 Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)
Mixon finds himself in a similar position to Kamara with underwhelming underlying metrics and concerning legal matters that could lead to a suspension in 2023. Additionally, he produced even fewer missed tackles forced, recording only 23 on 210 rushing attempts, resulting in an average rate of 11.0%. His yards per carry stood at just 3.88. If you exclude his ridiculous five-touchdown performance in Week 9, he only managed to find the end zone four times for the remainder of the season. He also started ceding work to Samaje Perine during the second half of the season.
Mixon's ADP is currently 53, which is high capital to invest in a player that might miss time and will be inefficient again this season. His saving grace is that the team did not select a running back until the fifth round of the 2023 Draft, so they appear to be content with him as their lead back. It's still worth monitoring because they could add a free agent to bolster the backfield and insulate themselves further.
#2 Ezekiel Elliott (Free Agent)
Elliott's performance has been on a decline since the midway point of the 2021 season when he struggled with leg injuries. This led to divided opinions in the fantasy community, with some believing that injuries were the problem and others writing him off as toast. Based on his missed tackles forced, it's the latter. He finished with only 30 on 231 rushing attempts for an average rate of 13.0% last year. It's particularly noteworthy because Tony Pollard ran behind the same O-Line and finished with 41 missed tackles forced on only 93 attempts for an average rate of 21.2%. That's a significant gap.
The one strength that Elliott maintains is his propensity to score touchdowns. He plowed forward for 12 of them in 2022, which is what will likely land him a job in free agency. He can muddy a backfield but is no longer capable of leading one. His current ADP is at 163, which reflects the sentiment above. However, there are plenty of upside options in that same range that are worth taking over him, such as Josh Downs at 184 or Chuba Hubbard at 188.
#1 Leonard Fournette (Free Agent)
Headlining this list is another free agent who has lost a step over the years. Fournette's inabilities were on full display last season when Rachaad White demonstrated efficiency and explosiveness with his opportunities. Fournette struggled to maintain the lead-back role, partly due to his inability to generate long runs. He produced only 15 missed tackles forced on nearly 200 carries (189), resulting in an average rate of 8.0%. Additionally, he gained only 445 yards after contact, ranking 33rd among all backs, despite having the 25th most carries.
Fournette managed to survive thanks to his receiving skills, as he caught 73 passes for 523 yards and three touchdowns. However, that might not be enough to earn him a role on a new team. His ADP has also slipped, currently sitting at 174. Nevertheless, similar to the running backs mentioned above, there are other players in that range who offer more upside.
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