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PGA DFS Vegas Report - Spencer Aguiar's Betting Picks for the Valero Texas Open

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas golf betting lines to find the best PGA DFS sleepers for The Valero Texas Open. His top under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks are included.

All other PGA Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Teeoffsports to get my updated picks as the tournament progresses, and if you don't have that as one of your social media platforms, here is a link for my betting card weekly. Plays will always get updated as soon as they are placed and will include outright, head-to-head and top-20 recommendations. My free DFS column, which includes my top plays of the week and a list of options I will be fading, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter.

 

Other Valero Texas Open Content

Be sure to get an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings PGA picks, FanDuel PGA picks, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Course Breakdown

TPC San Antonio

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded With Bent/Poa)

You can read my DraftKings article at Rotoballer to get my full breakdown of the week in front of us from a statistical perspective.

 

Key Stats

  • Weighted T2G (30%)
  • TPC Stats L24 Rounds (10%)
  • Moderate to Severe Wind L50 (7.5%)
  • Weighted Par-Four (15%)
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better (15%)
  • Putting 5-15 Feet (10%)
  • Weighted GIR (12.5%)

 

Options To Consider - The Valero Texas Open

Bryson DeChambeau (28/1) - I think there are a few routes we can consider at the top of the board, but it is hard for me to ignore Bryson DeChambeau for two core reasons. For starters, if the big-hitting American would have entered this event with any form to speak of whatsoever, I believe he would have been 10/1 in this watered-down field. But more importantly, a missed cut doesn't provide us any extra damage if things don't play out in the fashion I am hoping for in San Antonio. DeChambeau is the third-ranked golfer in my model when looking for pure upside, and he is the only player inside the top five that can be found at over 20/1. I'll take a shot on the potential.


K.H. Lee
(80/1)  - 
I had difficulty deciding what to do with K.H. Lee this week. My initial model believed he lacked the upside to win the event, which certainly could be accurate at the end of the day, but Lee was one of the substantial upside climbers when looking at data over just the past few months. At the end of the day, his 17th-place rank from an overall perspective was enough for me to pull the trigger, and don't forget, there is a reason the industry calls him 'TPC Lee' - beyond Nick Bretwisch, my co-host of the Bettor Golf Podcast, coining that nickname.


Sahith Theegala (80/1) -
 I love this 80/1 number on Sahith Theegala. The California kid grades inside the top-10 of my model in multiple areas, including placing ninth overall in my reconstructed tee-to-green stat.


Troy Merritt (100/1) - 
I might have gone deeper down the board than I should have with Troy Merritt, but it is hard to ignore what happens to his ranking when we increase his par-five scoring potential. My model seems to believe that placing him inside the top-50 in the field for the week would make him one of the 30 most likely names to take home the title, and I've been open with everyone that reads this piece weekly that cracking the top-30 is typically the first order of business for anyone that I want to bet. While Merritt doesn't have that on the surface during the first go-around of the sheet, it doesn't take much to get him into that territory.


Martin Laird (100/1) - See Placement Wager


C.T. Pan (125/1) - See Placement Wager


Matt Jones (130/1) - See Placement Wager


Adam Svensson (200/1) - See Placement Wager


Guido Migliozzi (350/1) - See Placement Wager


Options That Barely Missed

Jordan Spieth (14/1) - If you could have given me an extra 5-6 points, Spieth would have found his way onto my card.

Luke List (60/1) - I spent three years chasing Luke List at this tournament between 2017-2019 because my numbers believed this was one of the best set-ups for him in the world. I never found success during that timeframe, but the upside is there.

 

Odds Risk Win
Bryson DeChambeau 28 0.285 7.98
K.H. Lee 80 0.1 8
Sahith Theegala 80 0.1 8
Troy Merritt 100 0.08 8
Martin Laird 100 0.08 8
C.T. Pan 125 0.06 7.5
Matt Jones 130 0.06 7.8
Adam Svensson 200 0.07 14
Guido Migliozzi 350 0.08 28

 

Top-40 Market 

Kevin Streelman T40 +100 DraftKings, -120 FanDuel

  • I usually play most of these wagers to win around a unit. Some examples land outside the box in both directions, but I will bet this as a strong exposure play of 0.75, which does earn me a win total that is less than I would ideally expect. 
  • First and foremost, I think Streelman was mispriced compared to his counterparts. We see options like Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin and Gary Woodland stretching between -135 and -145 for the same bet. 
  • All those guys are the same likelihood of landing a top-40, and I will take my small built-in edge upfront. 
  • Streelman has a great combination of floor, stats and course history that make him enticing, and he has provided two consecutive top-eight finishes at the venue to go along with three top-22 results over his last four starts on tour. 

 

K.H. Lee T30  +190 Pointsbet, +170 FanDuel

  • We have seen TPC Lee getting steamed in all markets early in the week. On Monday, Lee opened around 100/1 at various credible books and is now as low as 55/1 at some shops to take home this title. You can find better than that if you shop around, but the South Korean rolls into the week with superb form, having posted 11-straight made cuts. 
  • His two top-23 finishes at the property over his last two tries place him 11th in this field for overall course history in my model, and he has a 13th place safety grade when trying to locate golfers that will yield high floors. 

 

Guido Migliozzi T40 +400 FanDuel, +250 DraftKings
T30 +600 FanDuel

  • One of the main reasons I like Guido is because the limited data I have on him shows the 25-year-old to be an elite talent. My model believes the Italian should be priced next to golfers such as Robert MacIntyre at around +110 for a top-40, which means a lot since everything I do revolves around value. 
  • That doesn't suggest this is a lock to hit. Guido could easily miss the cut, but it is the fourth largest discrepancy in pricing I have ever seen on a placement wager.
  • For whatever it is worth, the other three all landed a top-40 in the week where I had the massive contradiction in pricing, but I love the data I have in front of me. 
  • Guido ranks 21st overall, 19th for upside and carries an 11th-place rank in weighted tee to green compared to the field, and I do want to stress one more time that this is through minimal data, but I will trust the early math and try to take a shot for a big score. 

 

Adam Svensson T40 +225 DraftKings, +175 FanDuel 

  • I am at the stage with Adam Svensson that I will keep backing him until something drastically changes with either his game or his odds. 
  • He is 17 spots better on my model in weighted tee to green versus expectation level for a random track and also ranks inside the top-20 in the field for weighted proximity and weighted GIR. 
  • TPC San Antonio looks like a brilliant course for his skillset, and I think Svensson is playable throughout various markets because of the upside he possesses. 
  • The +225 number is nearly 70 points higher than what I deemed as being proper, and while I won't play this nearly as aggressively as I am with Guido, I will try and take a small stance here that my numbers are better than what the casinos believe. 

 

Martin Laird T40 +145 FanDuel, +140 DraftKings

  • Martin Laird’s form leaves something to be desired, but I think this is the optimal way to gain exposure to him versus playing the Scottish golfer at 12-15% on DraftKings. 
  • The ball-striking has remained intact despite the back-to-back missed cuts, which is evident by him gaining nearly five strokes off the tee + approach over his last two starts on tour. 

 

Matt Jones T40 +200 Draftkings, +145 FanDuel

  • You could argue for being more aggressive than just a top-40 since Matt Jones is one of the more volatile golfers in my model, but this is a similar situation that I just mentioned with Laird. I am willing to throw away all numbers from the Players Championship because of the crazy weather, and we have seen him find success at this tournament in the past, providing two top-30s in his last three attempts. 
  • Jones grades well almost across the board for me and should be able to use his par-five scoring and around the green game to find success at the Valero.

 

C.T. Pan T40 +200 FanDuel, +140 Draftkings

  • C.T. Pan has never found success at TPC San Antonio, which will limit my exposure, but the raw data seems to think he eventually turns it around. Pan has gained with his irons in his past three. Around the green in eight of nine. And while the OTT numbers are worrisome, +200 is worth taking a shot.

 

Troy Merritt T40 +150 FanDuel, -110 DraftKings

  • Troy Merritt has posted back-to-back top-40s at the property to go along with two straight top-50s on tour. I think his form is in a good place, and the course seems to meet his eye.
Placement Odds Risk Win
Kevin Streelman 1 0.75 0.75
K.H. Lee (T30) 1.9 0.5 0.95
Guido Migliozzi 4 0.7 2.8
Guido Migliozzi (T30) 6 0.3 1.8
Adam Svensson 2.25 0.6 1.35
Martin Laird 1.45 0.6 0.87
Matt Jones 2 0.7 1.4
C.T. Pan 2 0.5 1
Troy Merritt 1.5 0.7

1.05

 

Head-to-Head Play of the Week 

Keegan Bradley -110 over Jason Day (Bovada)

The early-season resurgence from Day was remarkable to see, but it did come at courses he always tends to find success playing. We can point towards some positive qualities in attempting to pinpoint why Day might do better than expected, but the extra data starts to worry me that he can’t possibly maintain his level for four days.

Putting 10-15 Feet - 97th
Weighted GIR - 90th
Weighted Proximity -127th

 

Sahith Theegala +102 over Ryan Palmer (FanDuel)

Ryan Palmer has the upside to compete, but I am more concerned with the safety rating that places him outside the top-70 golfers in this field. Despite a free play, I will be playing this larger

Safety:
Sahith Theegala - 27th
Ryan Palmer - 74th

Exposure:

Keegan Bradley 1.30 to win 1.18
Sahith Theegala 1.30 to win 1.33

 

Free Matchups

Jordan Spieth -102 over Hideki Matsuyama (FanDuel)

Perhaps this is too aggressive, but I have heard rumblings that Hideki Matsuyama is still struggling with a back injury.

 

Round 1 Matchups

I will post it here later + inside the Round 1 article.

 

DFS Player Pool Options:

*** I am adding this section to the mix moving forward. Here are some of my top golfers that I am looking to build player pools around this week. You can use this list however you see fit, and please note that options are definitely not limited to this group.

Corey Conners Jordan Spieth
Keegan Bradley Bryson DeChambeau
Si Woo Kim Tony Finau
Luke List Kevin Streelman
Sahith Theegala K.H. Lee
C.T. Pan Martin Laird
Brendan Steele Troy Merritt
Matthew Nesmith Lee Westwood
Matt Jones Ian Poulter
Small Sprinkle of Guido Adam Svensson

 

2022 Premium Head-to-Head Record (1-3-0)

-1.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament
H2H Bet
Risk Units W L T TP Percentage Profit/Loss
5.20 1 3 0 4 25.00% -2.7
API Sergio Garcia -110 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.30 1 1 -1.3
Honda Classic Jhonattan Vegas -115 over Mito Periera 1.30 1 1 -1.3
Genesis Cameron Smith -115 over Viktor Hovland 1.35 1 1 -1.35
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +100 over Pat Perez 1.25 1 1 1.25

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-10-2 (+3.80 Units)

Tournament
H2H Bet
Risk Units W L T TP Percentage Profit/Loss
30.96 15 10 2 25 60.00% 3.8
Valspar Joel Dahmen -112 over CT Pan 1.12 1 1 1
Valspar Jason Kokrak -118 over Gary Woodland 1.18 1 1 -1.18
Valspar Alex Noren -120 over Jason Day 1.20 1 1 1
Valspar Mito Periera -120 over Francesco Molianri 1.20 1 1 1
Valspar Pat Perez -120 over Carlos Ortiz 1.20 1 1 1
Players Daniel Berger -120 over Cameron Smith 1.20 1 1 -1.2
Players Brendon Todd -115 over Troy Merritt 1.15 1 1 -1.15
Players Paul Casey -110 over Gary Woodland 1.10 1 1 1
Players Russell Henley -110 over Max Homa 1.10 1 0
API Cam Young -120 over Tom Hoge 1.20 1 1 1
API Sahith Theegala -110 over Andrew Putnam 1.10 1 1 -1.1
Honda Classic Sepp Straka -127 over Dylan Frittelli 1.27 1 1 1
Genesis Jordan Spieth -105 over Brooks Koepka 1.05 1 1 1
Genesis Dustin Johnson -125 over Collin Morikawa 1.25 1 1 -1.25
Genesis Rory McIlroy -115 over Collin Morikawa 1.15 1 1 -1.15
Genesis Sahith Theegala -120 over Francesco Molinari 1.20 1 1 1
Waste Management Luke List -115 over Tony Finau 1.15 1 1 1
Farmers Insurance Talor Gooch -110 over Corey Conners 1.10 1 1 1
American Express K.H. Lee -105 over Michael Thompson 1.05 1 1 1
American Express Gary Woodland -115 over Cameron Champ 1.15 1 0
Sony Billy Horschel +110 over Seamus Power 1.00 1 1 -1
Sony Si Woo Kim +100 over Seamus Power 1.00 1 1 -1
Sentry Patrick Cantlay -108 over Viktor Hovland 1.08 1 1 1
Sentry Jon Rahm -127 over Viktor Hovland 1.27 1 1 1
Sentry Justin Thomas -132 over Viktor Hovland 1.32 1 1 1
Sentry Bryson DeChambeau -112 over Collin Morikawa 1.12 1 1 -1.12
Sentry Jordan Spieth -105 over Hideki Matsuyama 1.05 1 1 -1.05

 

2022 Premium In-Tournament Head-to-Head Record (24-9-6)

+14.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium In-Tournament H2H Bets

Tournament
H2H Bet
Risk Units W L T TP Percentage Profit/Loss
44.63 24 9 6 33 72.73% 14.12
Valspar Adam Svensson -115 over Grayson Sigg (R4) 1.15 1 1 1
Valspar Sahith Theegala -115 over Brice Garnett (R3) 1.15 1 1 1
Valspar Stewart Cink -110 over Brice Garnett (R2) 1.1 1 1 1
Valspar Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R2) 1.05 1 1 -1.05
Valspar Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R1) 1.05 1 1 1
Valspar Brian Harman -110 over Bernd Wiesberger (R1) 1.1 1 1 1
API Adam Schenk -125 over Stephan Jaeger (R3) 1.25 1 1 -1.25
API Maverick McNealy -110 over Tommy Fleetwood (R2) 1.1 1 1 -1.1
API Cam Young -120 over Taylor Pendrith (R1) 1.2 1 1 1
API Gary Woodland -110 over K.H. Lee (R1) 1.1 1 0
API Ian Poulter -120 over Andrew Putnam (R1) 1.2 1 1 1
Honda Classic Nick Taylor -120 over Kevin Tway (R2) 1.2 1 1 1
Honda Classic Sepp Straka -115 over Vincent Whaley (R1) 1.15 1 1 1
Genesis Rickie Fowler -115 over Harry Higgs (R4) 1.15 1 0
Genesis Carlos Ortiz -115 over Francesco Molinari (R3) 1.15 1 1 1
Genesis Adam Hadwin -120 over Scott Stallings (R2) 1.2 1 1 -1.2
Genesis Paul Casey -110 over Abraham Ancer (R1) 1.1 1 1 1
Genesis Russell Henley -110 over Corey Conners (R1) 1.1 1 0
Waste Management Luke List -120 over Francesco Molinari (R4) 1.2 1 1 -1.2
Waste Management Max Homa -115 over Kevin Kisner (R3) 1.15 1 1 1
Waste Management Brooks Koepka -120 over Gary Woodland (R2) 1.2 1 1 1
Waste Management Matthew Fitzpatrick -120 over Aaron Wise (R1) 1.2 1 1 1
Pebble Beach Russell Knox -115 over Brendon Todd (R2) 1.15 1 0
Pebble Beach Jason Day -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick (R1) 1.1 1 1 1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann -110 over Billy Horschel (R3) 1.1 1 1 -1.1
Farmers Insurance Matt Jones -110 over Hudson Swafford (R1) 1.1 1 1 -1.1
Sony Keegan Bradley -120 over Hayden Buckley (R4) 1.2 1 0
Sony Adam Svensson +165 over Seamus Power (R4) 0.8 1 1 -0.8
Sony Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley (R3) 1.18 1 1 1
Sony Corey Conners -125 over Seamus Power (R2) 1.25 1 1 1
Sony Keegan Bradley -110 over Harry Higgs (R2) 1.1 1 1 1
Sony Michael Thompson +112 over Erik Van Rooyen (R1) 1 1 1 1.12
Sony Keegan Bradley -115 over Harry Higgs (R1) 1 1 0
Sentry Abraham Ancer -145 over Branden Grace (R4) 1.45 1 1 -1.45
Sentry Sungjae Im -115 over Hideki Matsuyama (R3) 1.15 1 1 1
Sentry Marc Leishman -130 over Lucas Herbert (R2) 1.3 1 1 1
Sentry Lucas Herbert -115 over Matt Jones (R1) 1.15 1 1 1
Sentry Patrick Cantlay -135 over Harris English (R1) 1.35 1 1 1
Sentry Brooks Koepka +125 over Viktor Hovland (R1) 1 1 1 1.25

 

2022 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Scottie Scheffler Waste Management 30 1
Joaquin Niemann Genesis Invitational 75 1
Jordan Spieth Pebble Beach 22 2
Viktor Hovland Arnold Palmer 18 2
Jason Day Farmers Insurance 110 3
Xander Schauffele Waste Management 16 3
Corey Conners Match Play Rollover 3
Daniel Berger Honda Classic 16 4
Brooks Koepka Match Play Rollover 5
Billy Horschel Waste Management 66 6
Justin Thomas Genesis Invitational 16 6
Chris Kirk Honda Classic 70 7
Tyrrell Hatton Match Play Rollover 9
Keith Mitchell Waste Management 110 10

 

Yearly Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.03 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.26) 194.24% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.64 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.88) 51.70% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

2021 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(17-13-1) +1.97 Units
Outright Winners (10)
Daniel Berger Pebble Beach (18/1)
Max Homa Genesis Invitational (66/1)
Justin Thomas Players Championship (22/1)
Billy Horschel Match Play (150/1)
Cameron Davis Rocket Mortgage (150/1)
Seamus Power Barbasol Championship (20/1)
Kevin Kisner Wyndham Championship (40/1)
Tony Finau Northern Trust (60/1)
Patrick Cantlay BMW Championship (25/1)
Rory McIlroy CJ Cup (20/1)
Overall Units Won (+68.846) 14.22% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2022 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (93-55-9) +43.66 Units 
Free Head to Head Bets (81-88-9) -4.82 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (125-82-22) +26.27 Units 
Outright Winners (30)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
2021 - 32
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41
2021 - 60 

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Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option