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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/1/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
The last big NRFI slate for me was Monday, when I recommended six different games for NRFI bets. I was bumming hard when the first three bets lost and thinking, "What do I have to do to get a win?" after last week's hot streak came to a screeching halt.
But the last three bets all hit, and I can live with a 3-3 night. I'm ready to reload and get back after it tonight, as we have all 30 teams in action in the first post-trade deadline slate. I'm back to my comfort zone of four picks, all of them NRFIs tonight.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, August 1, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 1, 2025)
- Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies: 6:45 pm ET
- Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays: 7:07 pm ET
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: 7:10 pm ET
- Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners: 10:10 pm ET
Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Jack Flaherty
- PHI: Ranger Suarez
We kick things off with one of the better pitching matchups on the slate and two very good teams with dreams of a deep postseason run. The Phillies will roll out lefty Ranger Suarez, who is enjoying a fantastic season in 2025. The crafty lefty owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this year, while raising his strikeout rate to 23.7%.
The strikeouts are something we haven't seen from him in the past, as he's relied on an elite ground-ball rate and excellent batted-ball metrics.
Ranger Suárez, Dirty 73mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/zJZoiAbDMR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 26, 2025
As far as NRFIs go, Suarez has been elite with a 14-1 record this year, and he comes into this game riding an eight-game NRFI streak. With the Tigers going just 8-2 on offensive NRFIs over their last 10 games, both the pitcher and hitter trends line up quite nicely here.
For Detroit, it'll turn to righty Jack Flaherty, who has seen his ERA balloon to 4.51 this year. However, his underlying metrics are still excellent, including an elite 29% K%.
Flaherty has a 17-4 NRFI record this year and should have the upper hand here, though the Phillies will send both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to the plate in the first frame. If Flaherty avoids the long ball, I think he can escape the first inning unscathed.
We get a bit of a boost with the weather, too, as the wind is blowing in from center field, and temperatures will only be in the 70s today in Philly.
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- KCR: Michael Wacha
- TOR: Kevin Gausman
One of our underappreciated NRFI kings is on the mound today as Michael Wacha toes the rubber for the Royals. That's right, despite being a fairly mediocre pitcher, Wacha owns an impressive 20-1 NRFI record this season. He faces a Toronto team that is slumping in the first inning, going 9-1 on offensive NRFIs over its last 10 games.
You have to love both of those trends, even if clicking on Wacha against the AL East leaders makes you a bit nervous.
Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who can be Jekyll or Hyde out there depending on how he's locating his split-finger pitch and whether or not he's getting in front of or behind hitters. I'm going to give Gausman the benefit of the doubt today, as he's been in great form lately. Gausman just tossed six innings of one-hit baseball against the Tigers with 10 strikeouts, and that was after he shut down the Yankees for just one run while striking out eight in his start before that.
Kevin Gausman nearly catching a body with this Splitter...for a Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/Le9r7f26y8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 26, 2025
Hopefully, Wacha can continue his first-inning dominance, and we get the same version of Gausman that we've seen in his last two starts!
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SFG: Robbie Ray
- NYM: David Peterson
The heat wave that struck the East Coast has pushed through, and temperatures are only going to be in the 70s today. The wind is supposed to be blowing in from right center field today, which should help a fly-ball pitcher like Robbie Ray, too.
Speaking of Ray, he will bring his 2.93 ERA and 17-5 NRFI record into this one and gets to face a Mets lineup that has been 8-2 on offensive NRFIs over their last 10 games.
For the Mets, they'll counter with a lefty of their own, David Peterson, who is enjoying a career year with a 2.83 ERA of his own. Peterson is the opposite of Ray in a way in that he relies more on groundballs (55% GB%) than strikeouts, but has been just as effective at run prevention this season.
Peterson brings a strong NRFI record, too, as he's 17-3 on NRFIs this season across 20 starts. We aren't getting the best odds here on this game, likely because of the strong surface numbers from both pitchers, but I do think it's still one of the best four bets on the day.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TEX: Jack Leiter
- SEA: Logan Gilbert
It's hard to trust the young righty Leiter entirely, but he has looked good lately, and the Mariners, despite adding some offense at the deadline, are still just 8-2 on offensive NRFIs over their last 10 games.
Happy Leiter-Day! Let's start this weekend off right with a W tonight.
Jack Leiter's last 5 starts:
— 3-1 W-L
— 27 IP
— 3.00 ERA
— 13 BB
— 32 SO pic.twitter.com/xBiXw9ucLF— The Prospect Times (@ProspectTimes) August 1, 2025
Meanwhile, Leiter is 14-4 on NRFIs this season and has racked up two in a row. I think he could be coming into his own, and the pressure will be on him to pitch well tonight as either Leiter or Kumar Rocker is likely heading to the bullpen now that Merrill Kelly is coming to Texas to join its rotation.
For Seattle, Logan Gilbert has only a 7-7 NRFI record this season, which is not what you would expect from the guy who looked like the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award before he went down with an injury early in the season.
Gilbert's metrics have been solid across the board, however, and he's still checking all the boxes in terms of being an ace-level arm. With the Rangers going just 8-2 on offensive NRFIs over their last 10, Gilbert is in a strong position to pick up another NRFI and help us cash this bet.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Rockies, Twins, Blue Jays, Brewers (90%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Orioles, Guardians, Athletics (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: White Sox, Orioles, Athletics, Dodgers (4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Reds, Marlins (.317)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Braves (.440)
Conclusion
After a roller coaster Monday that ended with a much-needed 3-3 finish, we're reloaded and ready to attack tonight’s full 15-game slate with confidence.
With four carefully selected NRFI bets today, this card features strong pitching matchups, favorable weather conditions, and cold first-inning offenses -- just the formula we look for in sharp NRFI betting.
From Flaherty vs. Suárez to Wacha's NRFI dominance, each of tonight’s MLB NRFI bets is built on proven data and momentum. Stay locked in, monitor lineups and forecasts, and keep checking back here daily for the best NRFI bets today in MLB.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight if you're tailing these bets!
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