NFL Touchdown Predictions: Week 15 Fantasy Football TD Props (2023)

December 13, 2023

Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 15 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for six players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.

We are 9-5 over our last three Pie Shop articles! This is our best streak yet as we head into fantasy playoff season. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we selected five players and finished 1-3 (Aaron Jones did not play).

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

We have matchups on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday this week as we head into the fantasy playoffs. In this article, I am selecting players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 15 Pie Shop.

Picks (20-14)

Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)

Chargers @ Raiders, Thursday 6:15 PM MST

Ironically, after the report that Ekeler would split touches, he had his best fantasy performance since Week 10. Unfortunately, Justin Herbert will miss the rest of the season after fracturing his index finger on his throwing hand. 

However, Easton Stick will be behind a shaky offensive line that will force him to check down. This week, Ekeler faces a Raiders team that is allowing the seventh-most rushing touchdowns per week at the position. It might be tough for this team to score, but if they get an offensive touchdown, Ekeler will likely be the one celebrating.

David Montgomery (RB, DET)

Broncos @ Lions, Saturday 6:15 PM MST

Last week, I called for Montgomery and he failed to score for only the second game this season. I’m going back to the well as he has an excellent matchup. As I mentioned above, the Broncos are the team that Ekeler rejuvenated his season against.

The Broncos are tied with the Raiders with the seventh-most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position. However, they are also allowing the most rushing yards per game. Montgomery is the power back in a home game where I expect the Lions to come out flying. I like the chances of Montgomery finding the end zone and eating against this mediocre run defense.

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

Texans @ Titans, Sunday 11:00 AM MST

I’ll be honest, I was surprised that Henry managed to come through against a tough Dolphins defense last week. However, his two yards per carry were saved by his inability to be stopped at the goal line. 

This week, I expect he’ll find success against a team he historically dominates. In his last four games against the Texans, he has averaged over 200 rushing yards and 1.75 touchdowns. That’s wild. Even though this defense has been better, Henry should fall into the end zone.

Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)

Commanders @ Rams, Sunday 2:05 PM MST

Kyren the Siren has been incredible all season. With a dominant amount of work every week, he is a clear fantasy star going into the playoffs. This offense is cooking and Williams has scored four touchdowns in his last four games. 

This week, he faces a Commanders team that is solid against the run; however, they allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game to the RB position. Between his workload and involvement in the passing game, I think the Rams will dominate the Commanders from the first snap. As a result, give me a positive game script with an RB that will see all of the backfield touches in this one.

Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)

49ers @ Cardinals, Sunday 2:05 PM MST

This matchup could be a blood bath. I frankly could have selected any of the 49ers' skill position players to score a touchdown in this one. This offense is on fire and now faces a divisional rival with an abysmal defense.

I chose Deebo because I feel like what he has done lately has gone relatively under the radar. Over his last two games, he has five touchdowns and 265 receiving yards. He now faces a Cardinals team that can be dominated both on the ground and in the air. Considering Deebo has a rushing touchdown in three straight weeks, I expect he'll find the end zone in some capacity this weekend.

DK Metcalf (WR, SEA)

Eagles @ Seahawks, Monday 6:15 PM MST

My top three athletes that I don’t want to be around when things aren’t going their way include Draymond Green, Patrick Mahomes, and DK Metcalf. Last week, Metcalf was ejected after he nearly tore Fred Warner’s head off by grabbing his face mask. 

Thankfully, he managed to score a touchdown on the opening drive with an impressive contested catch. This week, he faces an Eagles team that is leading the league in touchdowns to the position, with a ridiculous 1.8 WR touchdowns per game.

Considering the Seahawks are also averaging 1.4 touchdowns per game to WRs, this could be a high-flying passing game. As a result, give me the alpha WR on the team that will likely be playing from behind.

Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!

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