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The underdogs were the talk of the NFL town in Week 7. Seven teams pulled off an upset creating a chaotic week for Pick 'Em pools. Looking ahead to the (hopefully safer) Week 8 slate, there are no teams on bye. NFL schedule makers, in their infinite wisdom, threw in a week when all teams are in action before returning to scheduled off days.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 8 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 - Kansas City at Denver
- 15 - Baltimore at Arizona
- 14 - Detroit vs. Las Vegas
- 13 - Philadelphia at Washington
- 12 - Miami vs. New England
- 11 - Dallas vs. Los Angeles Rams
People started doubting Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game, so the former MVP went out and threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns. We just witnessed the Chiefs play the Broncos two weeks ago and the end result shouldn't be any different.
Baltimore's offense under first-year coordinator Todd Monken is blasting off. Arizona's offense with Joshua Dobbs under center is sputtering on the launch pad.
Detroit looked like the Lions of old against the Ravens but it's likely an anomaly and not a big cause for concern. The Raiders, meanwhile, got blown out by Chicago with 38-year-old Brian Hoyer filling in for Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Commanders took the Eagles to overtime in their first matchup but Washington has rarely looked like a competent team since.
In a third rematch from this grouping, Miami hosts the Patriots. New England pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season with their victory over Buffalo. Lightning doesn't strike twice in the AFC East.
The Cowboys get to host a Los Angeles Rams squad that got outworked, outscored, and out-reffed against Pittsburgh at home.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 8 Pick 'Em Pools
10 - Houston at Carolina
Bryce Young vs. C.J. Stroud: The Battle of the Top Two Picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
| Bryce Young | C.J. Stroud | |
| Completion Percentage | 63.2% | 59.6% |
| Yards | 967 | 1,660 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 1 |
| Record | 0-5 | 3-3 |
Both teams are coming off of their bye weeks feeling very different about their outlook on the season. The Texans are .500 and Stroud is playing like a future star. Young hasn't secured his first NFL victory yet and his defense is tied with Denver for the most points allowed per game. Houston is ranked eighth in that same metric.
This game almost ended up in the tier above but trusting a rookie quarterback to win on the road is never a guarantee. Still, the Texans have proved to be far superior to the winless Panthers.
9 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Chicago
The clock is ticking on Brandon Staley's time leading the Chargers. If his team falls to the Bears at home in primetime, the minute hand may strike midnight.
The Chargers sit at 2-4. That's a worse record than the Jets, Commanders, Raiders, and more. Remember, this was a playoff team last year and was projected to be there again this season. The pass defense is atrocious (allowing the most yards per game) and both Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are dealing with nagging injuries that are impacting their play.
The second victory for the Chicago Bears was their most impressive of the season. An improving defense shut down the duo of Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. Although their record is inferior, the Chargers appear to be a better team than the Raiders. With their backs against the wall, expect Los Angeles to score in bunches. They opened as nearly 10-point favorites but that number has already been dropping.
8 - Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay
There was no panic when the Bills lost to the Jaguars in London. Jacksonville had the benefit of spending an extra week overseas and punched Buffalo in the mouth before they even woke up.
There was no panic when the Bills barely squeaked by a lowly Giants squad when they were two-touchdown favorites at home on Sunday Night Football.
It may be time to panic about Buffalo after they allowed the Patriots to score 29 points, including a game-winning touchdown drive with just seconds remaining. Josh Allen had two turnovers again (although the lost fumble came on the final play of the game). Bill Belichick schemed Gabe Davis out of the game. In six career games against New England, the wideout averages 1.8 catches and 20.5 yards per game. The Patriots also kept Stefon Diggs mostly in check.
Belichick knows the Bills inside and out. He does, after all, see them twice a year. The Buccaneers won't be as ready to remove Buffalo's weapons from the game. There are still several reasons to be concerned about the Bills but they'll do enough to beat Tampa Bay at home on Thursday Night Football.
7 - Minnesota at Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers (2-4) are off to their worst start since 2006. Is that more or less embarrassing than scoring zero points against the league's worst defense in the entire first half? That's up for debate.
The offense looks discombobulated, which is eye-opening considering they just had a bye week to get things back on track. They did briefly take the lead midway through the fourth quarter before relinquishing it and throwing a game-losing interception. Once the upper class of the NFC North is now dwelling at the bottom of the standings with Chicago.
The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, are finding their footing after a sluggish start to the season. Following their upset victory over San Francisco on Monday Night Football, the Vikings have a golden opportunity to get back to .500 against a division foe.
6 - New York Jets at New York Giants
Just like the Olympics and the World Cup, the battle for New York happens once every four years. It doesn't earn the same worldwide acclaim as the other famous sporting events.
The Jets are coming out of their bye week with a two-game win streak, including a victory over the previously unbeaten Eagles. The Giants earned their way back into the win column by defeating the Commanders at home. One could argue that the offense with Tyrod Taylor under center has been an improvement from the version with Daniel Jones at the helm. It also could just be a softer schedule and the return of Saquon Barkley.
Both offenses average under 20 points per game. It took the Giants three weeks and a Swiss cheese Washington defense to finally find the end zone on offense. The Jets' defense is substantially better than the Commanders' and will be the difference on Sunday.
Wait And See Picks For Week 8
Update: San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is in the NFL's concussion protocol and his status for Sunday is in doubt.
5 - San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Brock Purdy is reaffirming that he is not a top-five quarterback in the world (although the debate was fun for a little while). His home/road splits better represent a young quarterback in the NFL. Who doesn't love Northern California? I'd probably be better at my career if I lived there too.
| Home (3 games) | Road (4 games) | |
| Completion Percentage | 75.6% | 62.1% |
| Yards | 845 | 823 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 4 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 3 |
| Record | 3-0 | 2-2 |
After two straight road losses, Purdy and the rest of the 49ers get to return home to host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. Joe Burrow's calf is healing as days go by and he just got two weeks to relax while Cincinnati served their bye week. With a cleaner bill of health, the entire offense is looking more like the team that reached back-to-back AFC Championship games.
This is probably the most anticipated game on the schedule this week. Because San Francisco is home, they are the pick but this one could truly go either way.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 8
4 - Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Coaching can trump talent. A mediocre defense, a below-average quarterback, and an inefficient running game can somehow lead to a victory with a great coach leading the way. That's how the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-2 and sitting near the top of the very competitive AFC North.
Doug Pederson is also a Super Bowl-winning head coach. Trevor Lawrence is playing like a former first-overall pick (although his fantasy numbers don't reflect that). Travis Etienne Jr. is playing the role of an elite running back to perfection. The rushing defense is solid and the pass defense, although ranked near the bottom of the league, looked improved against New Orleans.
In the two games that the Steelers dropped, they lost by an average of 23.5 points. Their wins have all been within one score. If history repeats itself, the Steelers will win a close game or get blown out.
3 - Indianapolis vs. New Orleans
While you were reading this, Alvin Kamara just caught another check-down pass from Derek Carr.
As fun as it is to poke fun at that aspect of the Saints' offense, it hasn't hurt them. The Saints have tallied over 400 total yards in each of the last two games. Defenses clamp down on the dump-off pass when New Orleans moves into the red zone, which is where struggles arrive. New Orleans' 37.5% red zone touchdown rate is the fifth-worst mark in the league. And when they fail to convert and line up to put three points on the board, their rookie kicker doesn't come through. Blake Grupe has missed three field goal attempts in his last two games.
Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew did Minshew things against Cleveland. He threw for 300+ yards for the second consecutive game and accounted for four touchdowns. For every score, Minshew turned the ball over just as many times, which directly led to 17 Cleveland points. The Saints need to capitalize on those turnovers as well if they hope to steal a road game.
2 - Atlanta at Tennessee
The only thing out of Atlanta that anyone wants to talk about is rookie running back Bijan Robinson barely seeing the field due to a headache that was not common knowledge prior to kickoff. It's distracting everyone from the fact that Desmond Ridder picked up his first road victory of his career. He tried his best to fumble the game away (twice on the goal line, both resulting in turnovers) but a win is a win.
Ridder may pick up his second road victory in Week 8. The Titans will surely be without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill (ankle) and will instead have second-year professional Malik Willis under center. The bigger concern is the decision from the front office to seemingly begin punting on the season. They dealt All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to Philadelphia for a pair of late-round draft picks. Could Derrick Henry and Tannehill be next?
1 - Seattle vs. Cleveland
Stats can give us all the clues as to which teams are good and which are bad. In the end, there's one thing that matters: wins and losses. They may have benefitted from some timely, questionable flags, but the Browns are 4-2.
The Deshaun Watson saga is baffling and we don't have a lot of insight into his shoulder injury, including when he'll be 100% again. Myles Garrett and the defense are keeping this team afloat just long enough for P.J. Walker to make a play to secure a victory. That's why it's hard to confidently pick against the Browns in any week.
Expect them to keep the Seattle offense in check. Geno Smith and Co. were averaging nearly 28 points per game before their bye week. In the two games since against Cincinnati and Arizona, that figure is down to 16.5 points. They're reverting back to Pete Carroll's old ways: winning with defense and a strong running game. Kenneth Walker III is being used as a workhorse and the defense is vastly improved from the beginning of the season with the return of Jamal Adams and the emergence of rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon.
The Browns scored four times on drives that went for ten yards or less against the Colts. If Seattle doesn't gift them short fields, they'll come out victorious at home.
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