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The NFL's version of the Elite Eight remains. The betting favorites, Baltimore and San Francisco, reenter the fold after earning and serving their bye week. In each instance, the one seeds get to face off against an up-and-coming team fresh off of a playoff upset.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into semi-confident picks and toss-ups. The number next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of the first game. Injury question marks for Sunday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not.
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Semi-Confident Picks For Divisional Round Pick 'Em Pools
4 - San Francisco vs. Green Bay
The most impressive performance of Wild Card weekend belongs to the Green Bay Packers. They scored on nearly every possession when the game's outcome was in question. The onslaught stopped when they let up and just ran to kill the clock. It was a flawless postseason debut for Jordan Love, even if the official passer rating figure was a tad shy of perfection.
The Packers' 48 points on Sunday tied for the second-most in a road playoff game in NFL history. Green Bay also became the youngest team (25 years, eight months, three days) to win a playoff game. The Packers don't rebuild, they reload. The future for this team is shockingly bright.
The future hasn't arrived yet. As evidenced by their regular season results, the San Francisco 49ers are a completely different animal than the Cowboys. Two things are seemingly a guarantee: Green Bay won't drop a near-50 burger in Santa Clara and the 49ers won't be shut out for nearly an entire half. The offense is far too efficient and the Green Bay defense still has its holes.
Similar to the way Buffalo took down the Cowboys, the Packers leaned on the running game, a.k.a Aaron Jones. The Dallas defense rarely handled Jones at or near the line of scrimmage, running for 5.6 yards per attempt. The San Francisco run defense is sturdier and the line is healthy, something that wasn't true at the tail end of the regular season.
3 - Detroit vs. Tampa Bay
The Lions may be facing a downgrade in competition when they host their Divisional playoff game. The Rams were playing their best football of the season. While they have won six of their last seven games, nobody is scared of facing the Bucs in the postseason. Beating up on the NFC South and the shell of Philadelphia doesn't strike fear.
The running game is obsolete when matched up against Detroit. Kyren Williams, who led the league with 95.3 rushing yards per game in the regular season, was limited to 61 yards. The Lions set out to at least take away one aspect of offenses. The secondary surely hasn't stepped up, so it falls on the front seven. Rachaad White, one of Tampa Bay's best weapons this season, will be relegated to obscurity.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will have fun beating up on the Detroit secondary. Puka Nacua and Co. ran past, through, and around the Lions' cornerbacks.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their secondary is statistically (slightly) worse than Detroit's. Amon-Ra St. Brown will feast, just as he did in Week 6 when the All-Pro racked up 12 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown.
It's been a magical, Comeback Player of the Year-esque season for Baker Mayfield, but the Cinderella story ends in Motown.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of The Divisional Round
2 - Baltimore vs. Houston
Week 1, 2023: A wet-behind-the-ears C.J. Stroud took the field in M&T Bank Stadium for the first start in his professional career. He led the Texans to zero touchdown drives and Houston, predictably, lost by 16 points to Lamar Jackson's Ravens. A lot has changed since then.
For starters, Stroud is considered by many to be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. Nico Collins was, at the time, just a sneaky sleeper for some in the fantasy football community. He's being viewed now as an elite, alpha option at the position. Dameon Pierce was the starting running back in Week 1. Veteran Devin Singletary is the leader of the backfield now and is giving the Texans a respectable ground game.
On the Baltimore side, Jackson did not play at all like the presumptive MVP he would go on to be. Granted, tight end Mark Andrews wasn't in the lineup. Isaiah Likely was shut down in his place and more than half of Baltimore's passing yards went to rookie Zay Flowers. Andrews could be back on Saturday.
Two things that haven't changed are the ways that each defense is playing. Baltimore (albeit not quite the best after Week 1) continued their success in keeping their opponents out of the endzone. By the end of the season, they allowed the fewest points per game (16.5). The Texans held the Ravens to 110 rushing yards, including 38 from Jackson, just above the 96.6 average they surrendered this season. Baltimore averaged 156.5 rushing yards per game. The Texans' front seven is very good.
Stroud was, for the most part, counted out in the Wild Card round. The Texans will have to take to the road and face a better defense and the MVP favorite. I'm giving Houston more credit by placing them in this section but, like Green Bay, they're still at least a year away from competing for the Lombardi Trophy.
1 - Buffalo vs. Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game comes in Orchard Park, New York. At least Mahomes and the Chiefs are used to playing in the cold.
There's going to be trepidation picking against the reigning Super Bowl champions. Mahomes is, after all, 12-3 in the postseason. Playing on the road in the playoffs is a different animal. Playing on the road in the playoffs in Buffalo is a nightmare.
The Bills have arguably been the better team for the latter part of the regular season, including a win at Kansas City in Week 14. Then, the Bills utilized James Cook in both facets of the game to propel the offense.
Ultimately, in a matchup featuring Mahomes and Josh Allen, the defenses will prove to be the difference. Both of these teams rank in the top four in points allowed per game. The 20-17 final score in that regular season game proves the point. If the Bills can get their injured linebackers and cornerbacks in the lineup on Sunday, it will help their push toward the AFC Championship game.
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