RADIO
Welcome to the Week 16 Saturday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Saturday's main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have one of the most intriguing slates of the season from a DFS perspective on tap. Not only may many of our fellow competitors be building lineups with less focus than usual due to Christmas Eve, but there are also several games that could be significantly impacted by weather. However, there are still plenty of appealing value plays, even some that are involved in a couple of those contests, to choose from.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jared Goff, DET at CAR | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $28
Goff continues to outperform his salaries nearly each week, yet his salaries don't seem to rise much, which naturally is a benefit to us as DFS players. The veteran quarterback's latest success came in a tough Week 15 road battle against the Jets, when he finished with 252 yards and a touchdown without an interception. While that did snap a three-game streak of multi-touchdown games for Goff, he seems as comfortable as any other time in his career and will have the valuable commodity of stable weather on his side Saturday in a matchup against a talented but inconsistent pass defense.
The Panthers play plenty of zone coverage, something the likes of Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown are well-equipped to exploit. Additionally, Carolina ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in sacks (29) and adjusted sack rate (5.7%). Goff has picked apart a Jaguars team with a very similar modest pass-rush profile in the Jaguars to the tune of 31-for-41 passing and 340 yards with two touchdowns in Week 13, and the relatively comfortable weather conditions should help him to another productive outing.
Gardner Minshew, PHI at DAL | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $20
The reflexive assumption many may have about the Eagles' air attack experiencing a major downgrade with Minshew starting in place of Jalen Hurts (shoulder) could certainly be one we can use to our advantage Saturday, especially in tournaments. Not only will Minshew's minuscule salaries open up plenty for you elsewhere in your lineup, but he could actually deliver very strong returns, given the embarrassment of skill-position riches at his disposal. That's more than just speculation, considering Minshew averaged 17.1 DK/FD points in two starts last season and also eclipsed 20 fantasy points on nine occasions during his first two seasons in Jacksonville.
The Cowboys put plenty of bad secondary play on film in the second half of the overtime loss to the Jaguars in Week 15, and Dallas is now allowing 242.3 passing yards per contest in the last three, an enormous increase over the 191.6 they're yielding for the season, which naturally factors in their recent struggles. What's more, star cornerback Trevon Diggs is now questionable for Saturday's game with an illness, and an absence on his part would naturally represent a major downgrade for Dallas' defense. Minshew walks right into a turn-key operation with respect to the Eagles' offense and should have very little trouble providing justification, at minimum, for his very modest salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Sam Darnold, CAR vs. DET | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $26
DK/Yahoo Special: Dak Prescott, DAL vs. PHI | DK: $6,100, Yahoo: $27
DK-only Special: Geno Smith, SEA at KC | $5,800
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Miles Sanders, PHI at DAL | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $23
Another misconception about the Eagles' Week 16 offense could well be that Sanders can't deliver a strong fantasy return alongside Minshew and his pass catchers. While the Cowboys do have a talented defense, it's one that's a bit injury-hampered and has also been vulnerable to the run most of the season. Sanders may also be less popular than he otherwise would be after burning many DFS players in Week 15, and he could also be in position to benefit from Hurts' absence in that the highly mobile signal-caller won't be around to vulture rushing/touchdown opportunities from him, as was the case often in Week 15 versus the Bears.
The Cowboys come in allowing 133.1 rushing yards per game, including 131.3 per home contest. Dallas will also be missing starting linebacker Leighton Vander Esch with a shoulder/neck injury, and even Micah Parsons is carrying a questionable tag due to an illness. The Cowboys already rank No. 21 in second-level yards allowed per Football Outsiders, and Sanders is well-equipped to take advantage given his elite speed, 15.0 percent broken-tackle rate and the fact his offensive line is facilitating 4.85 RB yards per carry and ranks No. 3 in second-level yards facilitated specifically, which all helped Sanders to an impressive 18-71-1 line on the ground against Dallas back in Week 6.
J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. ATL | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $19
Dobbins is another back who could partly benefit from the absence of his starting quarterback Saturday, and he also comes into this favorable matchup running hot after back-to-back 100-yard performances. Both those games have come with Lamar Jackson sidelined with the PCL sprain that will also keep him out Saturday, and weather could also be in Dobbins' favor versus the Falcons.
The Christmas Eve forecast in Baltimore calls for sub-20-degree temperatures and up to 17 mph winds, and with Tyler Huntley at quarterback instead of Jackson, head coach John Harbaugh could well lean heavily on Dobbins in a game Baltimore's defense may be able to nearly win by itself while facing rookie Desmond Ridder in his second start.
The Falcons also check in allowing 154.7 rushing yards per game in the last three, along with 4.3 RB yards per carry for the season. Meanwhile, Dobbins is averaging an astounding 8.8 yards per carry in his first two games back from injured reserve, ripping off three runs of at least 20 yards along the way. It's also worth noting the Falcons have given up 13 red-zone rushing TDs, while Dobbins has 12 red-zone touches in just six games this season.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. SEA | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $22
DK/Yahoo Special: Alvin Kamara, NO at CLE| DK: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC vs. SEA | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $19
Smith-Schuster has developed an elite level of chemistry with Patrick Mahomes as their first season together has unfolded. The offseason addition has logged a whopping 21 targets over his last two games alone, leading to a 19-162-1 line over that span. Smith-Schuster has already eclipsed 20 DK points on three occasions since Week 6, and with fellow wideout Mecole Hardman (abdomen) not expected to be activated from injured reserve ahead of Saturday, Smith-Schuster should be in line for another heavy workload versus a Seahawks team allowing the second-most opponent plays per road game (68.1).
Seattle has surrendered 226.3 passing yards per road game at 10.4 yards per completion, with the latter figure dovetailing particularly well with Smith-Schuster's receiver profile. The sixth-year vet is averaging 12.0 yards per reception and 9.2 yards per target, and his aDOT sits at a short-area 7.4 yards. Smith-Schuster does typically need some solid catch volume to deliver a strong fantasy return, but with a tiny 3.3% drop rate and average of 7.1 targets per contest, he should be in good position to deliver.
DJ Moore, CAR vs. DET | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $18
Moore came through nicely as a value play in Week 15, delivering a 5-73-1 line on six targets against the Steelers. The fifth-year pro is unquestionably Sam Darnold's top target, and he's laying claim to just under 27% of the team's passing game looks, as well as 46.1% of the Panthers' air yards. The high-powered Lions offense now comes to town in Week 16, and Carolina therefore figures to have to rely on the passing game more than usual in order to ensure it has a chance at keeping up with Detroit in a game the Panthers need to hang on to their slim playoff hopes. Moore will have the benefit of a cold but clear weather forecast in Carolina, something many other games can't offer.
The Lions have actually been a better pass defense by the numbers on the road, but they're allowing 284 passing yards per game in the last three, along with an NFC-high 11.9 yards per completion when traveling. The latter figure is especially relevant in Moore's case, as he typically won't need high volume in receptions to deliver a strong performance thanks to his big-play ability. Moore is averaging 13.3 yards per reception and has taken 13 of his 51 catches for 20+ yards while sporting a robust aDOT of 12.4 yards, all numbers that make him especially well-suited to exploit a Detroit defense that's surrendered an NFL-high 2,835 receiving yards to wideouts.
Darius Slayton, NYG at MIN | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $19
Slayton will have even less to worry about when it comes to weather Saturday, as he'll have the benefit of taking the field in the perfect indoor conditions of U.S. Bank Stadium. The speedster could also be lower rostered than in recent weeks after turning in a modest 5-23 line on seven targets in the nationally televised Sunday night clash against the Commanders. However, Slayton had produced a 27-500-2 line in the previous seven games, drawing a target on a solid 24% of his routes during that span and averaging an elite 18.5 yards per catch. Those numbers all bode well for his chances of success against a Vikings secondary that's been anything but consistent.
Minnesota is allowing 275.1 passing yards per home game and doing so at 11.0 yards per completion. What's more, no team has allowed more receptions to wideouts than the Vikings' 211, and only the Lions have yielded more receiving yards to the position than the 2,807 that Minnesota has surrendered. Slayton is laying claim to 30.5% of the Giants' air yards for the season and is averaging a career-best 15.8 yards per grab on a fantasy-friendly 12.0-yard aDOT, making him an excellent candidate for some big gains in the climate-controlled confines of U.S. Bank Stadium.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Marquise Goodwin, SEA at KC | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $19
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dallas Goedert, PHI at DAL | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
Building on what was noted earlier about Minshew's ability to run the Eagles' offense successfully, Goedert makes for a very intriguing play in his first game off injured reserve. The talented tight end's injury was to his shoulder, meaning his legs have gotten some valuable late-season rest over the last five weeks and he should therefore have a nice built-in advantage against many of the defenders that will be trying to slow him down.
Goedert had posted tallies of 12.4 and 27 DK points in two of his three games before getting hurt, and he could enjoy a sizable role in his return with Minshew likely to trust him plenty on short and intermediate routes. The Cowboys have allowed a 67-512 line to tight ends this season, and they'll be without Leighton Vander Esch (neck/shoulder) for Saturday's game, with the possibility Micah Parsons (illness) sits out as well. Goedert certainly has the athleticism to take advantage of those vulnerabilities and won't have to do an inordinate amount to pay off his very modest salaries.
Juwan Johnson, NO at CLE | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $16
Both Chris Olave (hamstring) and Jarvis Landry (IR-ankle) will miss Saturday's game, meaning Johnson, who's already enjoying a prominent red-zone role during the latter half of the season, could see a nice boost in opportunity. The third-year pro tight end already has a career-high 35-416-7 line on a career-best 55 targets, and he checks into Saturday's contest with five touchdowns in his last four games alone.
Johnson is already being targeted on over 23% of his routes in the last eight games, and that figure should see a bump Saturday against a Browns team that's given up a healthy 11.8 yards per catch to tight ends, along with 14 red-zone passing touchdowns. In turn, Johnson is averaging 11.9 yards per catch and sports a solid-for-his-position 9.0-yard aDOT, and he's converted four of his five red-zone targets in the last four games into scores.
ALSO CONSIDER: Mark Andrews, BAL vs. ATL | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $21
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