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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 13 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Jaguars at Vikings, Browns at Titans, and Colts at Texans.
Jaguars @ Vikings Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and James Robinson more than 65.5 fantasy points
This should be an exciting game as it pits two bad defenses together with a total currently sitting at 51. Dalvin Cook makes sense as the guy to anchor this prop play due to the volume he should receive against this Jaguars Defense. The Jags are currently allowing over 111 rushing yards per game to backs and have allowed three rushing touchdowns over the previous four weeks. They are also giving up production in the passing game to backs as they have allowed over four receptions per game over that same span. This all translates to them allowing over 21 fantasy points per game to the position. Cook has been a volume monster as he has carried the ball nearly 22 times per game and has also been active in the passing game as he has hauled in nearly three receptions per game. He is the highest-scoring back in fantasy and certainly should have a solid day vs. this defense.
Adam Thielen should return this week from the Covid-19 list and has an opportunity to put up a solid game. The Jaguars have not been good against the pass in 2020, either. They have allowed wide receivers to put up 829 receiving yards over the previous four weeks, which averages out to over 207 yards per game. They have also allowed six receiving touchdowns to wideouts, which is tied for fourth-worst in the league. This is precisely where Thielen has shined in 2020 as he has hauled in a whopping 11 receiving touchdowns, which is tied for second-best in football among wide receivers. Thielen also averages nearly eight targets per game, so the volume is there.
The Vikings have struggled a bit lately vs. running backs as they are allowing 96 rushing yards per game to backs and are also giving up nearly five receptions per game over the previous four weeks to the position. James Robinson has been the horse for the Jags as he is averaging nearly 18 carries per game and has also averaged over three receptions per game. He has also scored in three of his previous five games. He makes for a solid play even if the Jags fall behind thanks in large part to his role in the passing game.
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Browns @ Titans Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown more than 58.5 fantasy points
We have another fun game between the Browns and Titans with a total currently sitting at 53.5, which should provide plenty of fantasy value. Nich Chubb is the guy from the Browns that I want to use in this one. Since he returned from injury in Week 10, Chub has averaged 128 rushing yards per game and has found the end zone twice. He has also carried the ball at least 19 times in each of those three games.
Derrick Henry cannot be left out of any prop involving fantasy points as he is the second-highest scoring running back in fantasy behind the aforementioned, Dalvin Cook. Henry is the definition of a workhorse back as he currently averages 23 carries per game. Over the previous four weeks, Henry has carried the ball 95 times for 482 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Browns are currently allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry as well. If the Titans give Henry his usual workload, he should have no issues contributing in a big way to this total.
A.J. Brown is one of my favorite plays this week against the Browns. Denzel Ward is likely to be out again, which means Brown should be able to have a field day against their secondary. The Browns' pass defensive numbers are a bit inflated over the previous four games as they have had the benefit of playing in some horrendous winds in Weeks 8 and 11. On the season, the Browns have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and this would be much worse if not for the previous four games. Brown has been Ryan Tannehill's favorite target as he has seen an average of over seven targets per game this season. He has also scored in seven of the Titans' previous eight games, which is absolutely astounding. Over those eight games, Brown has averaged nearly 75 receiving yards and a touchdown on over four receptions per game.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Recommended Prop Pick:
Philip Rivers less than 280.5 passing yards and Deshaun Watson more than 276.5 passing yards
While Rivers has thrown over this total in each of his previous three games, he should not be required to do so in this one. He will be getting Jonathan Taylor back, which hopefully means the Colts will be running a bit more vs. this Texans' porous run defense. Over the previous four weeks, Houston has allowed backs to rush for an average of nearly 127 yards per game while also giving up 4.6 yards per carry. The Colts should come out and run the ball effectively in this one based on these numbers. They are also favored by 3.5 points, which should allow them to run the clock as the game winds down.
Watson has thrown over this total in seven of his previous eight games and may need to do so if the Texans have a chance at winning this one. Over the previous six weeks. the Colts have allowed three three-hundred yard passers in Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers. They have also failed to allow a 100-yard rusher all season except for Derrick Henry on two separate occasions. While David Johnson could return this week, the Texans still rank 31st in total rush offense, yet are third in the league in passing offense. This coupled with the fact that the Texans are 3.5 home dogs should lead to more passing in this game and get Watson over the hump.
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