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John Brubaker has his top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings for tonight's Monday Night Football Commanders vs. Bengals showdown slate for Week 3.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have our second of the two Monday Night Football showdowns tonight. It'll be the number two overall pick Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (1-1) heading to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals (0-2). The Bengals, who have been somewhat notorious for their slow starts over the last few seasons, are looking for a win while Daniels and the Commanders will look to build off the momentum of their Week 2 win against the Giants.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Commanders vs. Bengals NFL DFS showdown slate on Sept 23. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, Cincinnati Bengals - $15.9K (DK), $14K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 422 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 10 rushing attempts, 24 rushing yards, one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 26.19%
I'll start things off on this slate with Joe Burrow. I thought there was some cause for concern following Burrow's Week 1 performance against the Patriots. I was wrong, fortunately, as despite losing his matchup against the Chiefs in Week 2, Burrow threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns.
Burrow now gets the opportunity to take on one of the worst defenses in football in the Commanders. My model projects Burrow to throw for a massive 291.88 yards and 2.6 touchdowns while adding 11.13 yards on the ground. This Commanders' defense is not very good, and it appears that the Bengals will have Tee Higgins suit up for the first time this season.
Zack Moss - RB, Cincinnati Bengals - $11.7K (DK), $12K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21 rushing attempts, 78 rushing yards, five targets, three receptions, 30 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -5.63%
If you read my article covering the Bills and Jaguars game before reading this, you may think "Oh no, is this guy only going to write up Bengals now?". I assure you this is not the case, though my second choice at the 1.5x spots tonight is Zack Moss. Moss had a strong Week 1 performance before regressing hard against Kansas City in Week 2, which was somewhat expected due to the pass-heavy game that ended up being.
When Zack Moss got 15 or more rushing attempts last SZN (he did in 6 games) he averaged: ⬇️👀
- 92.2 rushing yards per game
- 4.33 Y/C on 126 attempts
- .66 TDs per gameI love this signing by the Bengals. Win/Win situation.
- Bengals get a good RB that doesn’t need to be… pic.twitter.com/MQoRbjjBbV
— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) June 2, 2024
Nevertheless, my model projects Moss as the best value in this game, projecting him to log 64.32 yards across 12.4 carries while adding 2.59 receptions for 19.64 yards and 0.72 total touchdowns. He will most likely be my highest-owned player overall in this matchup.
Other Captains/MVPs: Ja'Marr Chase, Jayden Daniels
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DFS Flex Plays
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders - $8.6K (DK), $10.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 12 targets, eight receptions, 39 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1 (2023): 19.26%
I will flip the field here and look at a pair of Commanders in my flex spots. I'll start with Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was one of my favorite targets in fantasy drafts this offseason, more so after Jahan Dotson was traded to the Eagles, and boy has it NOT paid off to date. Kliff Kingsbury made it a point to say that Washington's offensive staff was focused on getting McLaurin more involved in the offense.
That would indeed be nice, and while my model projects things to regress in a positive direction in this one, I think I'm even higher on him than my model, where he projects to 4.14 receptions, 59.27 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns on 6.74 targets.
Brian Robinson - RB, Wahington Commanders - $9.8K (DK), $13K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 29 rushing attempts, 173 rushing yards, seven targets, four receptions, 52 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -14.48%
I'll take a look at the running game next, where I think the Commanders have the bigger advantage in this matchup with the Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati struggled against the run in 2023, and having the threat of Jayden Daniel's legs opens things up for Robinson in the backfield.
In this matchup, my model projects Robinson to run for 54.75 yards and 0.42 touchdowns. His lack of work in the passing game ultimately limits his ceiling, so I won't have much of him in my 1.5x spot. However, I like a combination of Robinson, McLaurin, and Daniels as "run-back" options in heavy Cincinnati lineups.
Other Flex Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Jayden Daniels, Austin Ekeler
DFS Value Plays
Mike Gesicki - TE, Cincinnati Bengals - $5.6K (DK), $10K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 109 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE (2023): 4.62%
I'll go back to the tried and true strategy in the showdown slates of years past: double tight ends. We have a couple of strong ones here, starting with Mike Gesicki. Gesicki had a surprising Week 2, amassing seven receptions on nine targets for 91 yards. I fear that regression is near-inevitable with Tee Higgins returning to the lineup on Monday Night Football, but we don't need a huge stat line from Gesicki in this one to hit value.
My model projects Gesicki to have a relatively quiet game, catching just 2.7 of 4.19 targets for 24.02 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. With that said, all we need him to do is find the end zone. I don't anticipate much from Higgins in his first game back, making Gesicki a pseudo-number-two option in this Bengals offense.
For those wondering, Mike Gesicki is dressed for practice. He was limited on Thursday with a calf issue #Bengals pic.twitter.com/Zg5bPPJnrz
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) September 20, 2024
Zach Ertz - TE, Washington Commanders - $5.4K (DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Eight targets, seven receptions, 90 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE (2023): 16.91%
I'll wrap things up with Zach Ertz. As an Eagles fan, I will always respect Zach Ertz for his role in bringing the Eagles a Super Bowl title. Ertz was the model of consistency then, and even as he gets older, he remains consistent.
He's seen four targets in each of the first two games of the season, and my model projects him to see 4.53 targets tonight against a Cincinnati team that had struggled against the position in 2023. He's projected to catch 3.17 of those targets for 28.84 yards and 0.13 touchdowns.
Other Value Plays: Evan McPherson, Chase Brown, Noah Brown
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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