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Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in the Divisional Round of the 2026 playoffs. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.
We trimmed the playoff field down from 14 to eight last weekend, and now we are poised for another huge weekend of NFL playoff football. Even if your team was eliminated (like my Steelers were, and my surrogate NFC team - the Eagles - were also), you should be interested in these games as we have some pretty fun matchups and a guaranteed new Super Bowl champ in 2026.
I want to take this opportunity to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.
All odds listed are at Novig and can change fairly quickly as users make their predictions, so don't hesitate to grab the best odds when you see them! Now, here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for the Wild Card games this weekend!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.
You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NFL Picks Against the Spread
Houston Texans +3.5 (-116) at New England Patriots
The Texans' defense didn't let down in the Wild Card round. They smothered the Steelers and then forced two late turnovers that they turned into defensive touchdowns, breaking that game wide open. I watched that game closely, and while I knew that Houston's defense was their calling card and highly ranked, I still came away impressed with how they can put pressure on the QB, rally to the football to gang tackle, and how there just doesn't seem to be a weakness for opponents to exploit.
The Patriots didn't exactly bust the doors down last week on offense either. They led just 6-3 at the half and didn't pull away until the fourth quarter in their win over the Chargers. Their rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, has been excellent this year, but didn't play that well in his playoff debut and will face an even tougher test this week.
Meanwhile, I think C.J. Stroud got his worst game out of the way and should be better this week. He had some inexcusable gaffes on those two fumbles and a bad pick, but he also stepped up in the pocket and delivered some quality throws when they needed him. Even without Nico Collins, who will miss this game with a concussion, he has enough weapons to keep the chains moving. I like the Texans to win this week, and at worst, cover a 3.5-point spread even in a close loss.
NFL Passing Prop Bets
C.J. Stroud OVER 207.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Patriots have one of the worst pass defenses of any of the remaining playoff teams, ranking just 25th (DVOA) on the year.
When you combine that with the fact that the Texans can struggle to run the football at times, I think we'll see quite a bit of Stroud and the Houston passing game. Houston may have run for over 100 yards against the Steelers last week, but the Patriots' run defense will be a bigger challenge, and I would expect Mike Vrabel to take away the run and force Stroud to throw, especially after watching him turn it over three times last week against Pittsburgh.
This is a pretty low bar and one that Stroud cleared in eight of his 15 starts this season so far. For those who will say the Pats haven't allowed a 200-yard passer in eight straight weeks, my counter-argument would be to look at the names of those opposing passers - Justin Fields, Brady Cook, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco, and Quinn Ewers. Josh Allen and Justin Herbert are the only good QBs they slowed down, and Herbert had absolutely no protection.
Rushing Prop Bets
Bo Nix OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
The running back props this week are all a bit dicey for my liking, but we have some mobile quarterbacks who could be using their legs this weekend quite a bit. Nix is certainly one of those quarterbacks who won't hesitate to run when he needs to. We've seen that on full display just in the last two weeks alone as he's scrambled for 42 and 49 yards in his last two games.
The Bills allowed Trevor Lawrence to rush six times for 31 yards last week, and with the Broncos being a pass-heavy offense, I think we can expect a lot of Nix dropbacks again in this one. The more passing attempts for Nix, the better I like this prop, as all he needs to do is break off a few long scrambles to cash this one.
NFL Receiving Prop Bets
Jake Tonges OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
George Kittle's season is over, leaving Tonges in line for most of the snaps this week at the tight end position. We saw Tonges string together some solid production over a four-game span earlier this season when Kittle was banged up. From Weeks 4 through 6, he finished with 58, 41, and 58 yards receiving. He also posted a solid 7-60 yards against the Bears in Week 17 when Kittle was out.
The tight end position is the one DvP spot where Seattle has a weakness. With the Seahawks likely shutting down Christian McCaffrey in the run game, I expect Brock Purdy to look Tonges's way to help move the chains in the passing game.
Christian Kirk OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
I'll admit that I didn't have Kirk leading the Texans in receiving last week on my Bingo card. But in hindsight, it was a good matchup for him against the Steelers' secondary and high percentage of man coverage. When Collins went down early in that one, it made Kirk an even bigger part of the gameplan, and he delivered with a massive 8-144-1 line.
Christian Kirk is having a night!
He converts the 3rd down for 46 yards 😤
HOUvsPIT on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/aFus9CxtO7— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2026
I am not saying he will repeat that performance, but he should clearly see more opportunities again this week with Nico out than he did for most of the season. He's a good player, and just because many folks have forgotten about him doesn't mean that he's not more than capable of stepping up for the Texans this week. With the Patriots funneling a lot of their opponents' receiving production to the slot, I look for Kirk to have another solid day and clear this relatively low number with ease.
Anytime Touchdown Bets
Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (-113)
Charbonnet just always seems to be involved down around the goal line. He has had a clear advantage in red zone touches (55%) compared to KW3 (just 33%) this season, and racked up an impressive 12 touchdowns. He scored one in both meetings with the Niners already this season, and I expect Seattle to be able to run the football successfully this week against that depleted Niners' front seven.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-106)
Josh Allen scored two rushing touchdowns last week, once again donning his Superman cape and willing the Bills to a huge road win over the Jaguars.
Josh Allen powers through for the TD ‼️
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/1icPoQLxNy
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 11, 2026
That was his 16th rushing touchdown this season, and despite his 30% red zone rushing share, he's still almost even money to get in the end zone again this week. He's the goal-line back for this offense, and we know that they lean on him even more in big spots, so I would be very surprised if he doesn't find paydirt against Denver in this game.
