NFL Conference Championship Betting Picks and Props for Novig

January 23, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in the Conference Championships of the 2025-26 playoffs. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

And then there were four! We are down to the semifinal round of the NFL playoffs, and we have two fantastic matchups on tap for Sunday. The NFC has two juggernauts facing each other for the third time this year, with the winner of the rubber match heading to the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the AFC will have a team other than the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the first time in four years regardless of who wins.

I want to take this opportunity to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.

All odds listed are at Novig and can change fairly quickly as users make their predictions, so don't hesitate to grab the best odds when you see them! Now, here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for the conference championship games on Sunday, January 25.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NFL Picks Against the Spread

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+4.5, -107)

This line started at 5.5, but bettors quickly hit the Denver side, moving it to 4.5 just about everywhere. I am still quite comfortable taking the points here, as I think Denver should be able to compete in this one on the strength of their defense, and I have a certain level of trust that Sean Payton can adequately prepare Jarrett Stidham with a full week of practice on how to execute his offense.

Let's face it, the Patriots have had a soft schedule this year and probably the easiest path to the championship round of any of the four remaining teams. The Chargers crumbled in the first round, and then C.J. Stroud handed the Patriots five turnovers last week. Yes, New England is playing well, and they may win this game. But Denver has a deep team on both sides of the ball and won't go quietly.

NFL Passing Prop Bets

Matthew Stafford OVER 253.5 Passing Yards (-116)

This is the ultimate matchup of strength vs. strength as the likely MVP will face the number one overall defense in the league. Stafford struggled to just 130 yards passing in their first meeting, but then lit up this Seattle secondary for 457 yards in the rematch. Even if we split the difference in those outcomes, we end up at 293 yards!

The big key here is Seattle's run defense, which has been suffocating all season and is in top form right now, shutting down Christian McCaffrey twice in their last two games. If they can do the same thing to the Rams and force Stafford to have to throw it to beat them, then I am pretty confident that he can go over this number, something he has done in seven straight games this season.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Rushing Prop Bets

Jarrett Stidham OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Last week, we rode the Bo Nix rushing prop to an easy cash. I'm ready to go right back to his replacement this week, Stidham, who has a much lower bar at just 13.5 rushing yards. Stidham is not a statue by any means; he can scramble a bit and ran for 34 and 50 yards in two starts for the Raiders back in 2022.

I project a lot of passing volume for Stidham, so more dropbacks mean more opportunities to be pressured and for him to look to run. We also saw Sean Payton use Bo Nix on designed runs last week, so don't be surprised if he has 1-2 of those schemed up for Stidham this week, too.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

DeMario Douglas OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-121)

We saw Douglas get involved early for the Patriots last week, catching a 28-yard touchdown pass in the first half. He added another catch for eight yards, finishing with a 2-36 line. He was not much of a factor during the regular season, but I do like him this week as the Broncos play more man coverage than any other team, and Douglas rated better than any other Patriots wideout against man this season with 4.0 yards per route run.

Douglas operates out of the slot, and Denver tends to funnel production to opposing slot receivers as they have very good corners on the outside, including shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 2.5 Receptions (-125)

Stevenson has really dominated the targets out of the backfield lately, averaging 3.6 targets per game over the Patriots' last five games, while TreVeyon Henderson has averaged just 0.8 during the same stretch. Denver's run defense is usually quite stout, despite allowing over 100 yards on the ground to James Cook III last week. Look for Denver to force the Patriots to throw and for Stevenson to get several dump-offs or screen passes to keep the chains moving for this offense.

Courtland Sutton OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Sutton caught just four of nine targets last week, but still went over this number and finished with 53 yards against the Bills. While Denver likes to spread the ball around, Sutton is still their WR1, and I expect Stidham to lock in on his top target early on, often in this one. The Patriots ranked near the bottom of the league against WR1s this season in DVOA, and Sutton moves around the formation enough that he should avoid Christian Gonzalez some of the time.

This is just too low a bar for a receiver of Sutton's talent, and I think he'll likely be heavily involved in the game plan this week. I also don't think Stidham is going to be that big of a downgrade for the Denver passing game.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+320)

Parkinson has been a touchdown machine this season, catching all nine of his scores in the Rams' last 11 games. He has the second-highest red zone target rate on the team after Davante Adams, ahead of even Puka Nacua. He hit paydirt against the Panthers in the Wild Card round, which ended up being the game-winning touchdown.

He was held out of the end zone last week, but remained the most active tight end of the Rams' bunch, catching three of his seven targets for 56 yards against the Bears. I can't pass up this value; you simply don't get these odds on a player with a 22% red zone target share and a proven track record like Parkinson has this season. Matthew Stafford has a lot of weapons at his disposal, but he clearly trusts Parkinson down around the goal line.