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Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday, 10/28/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.
Injuries are stacking up already after only one week of NBA games, with Anthony Edwards being the latest casualty. But NBA teams have deep rosters, and it has to be the "next man up" mentality for these teams as there is a lot of basketball left to play this season. We'll be targeting some of those players expected to step up into larger roles today with some of our prop bets!
If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.
As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Wednesday's NBA slate!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.
The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost built into the odds offered on each side of a bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!
NBA Prop Bet Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET. All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Naz Reid OVER 17.5 Points (52%)
The Hornets are off to a strong 3-1 start, despite missing two starters as Kon Knueppel and Coby White have yet to play a game. Both Reid and Brandon Miller have had to carry this offense, and it's led to a career-high 28% usage rate for Reid in his new featured role.
& one❗️ #HiveMentality https://t.co/RqdeOuPgu5
— Charlotte Hornets (@hornets) October 22, 2026
He's a good outside shooter, but can also get buckets in the paint. He's really had his full offensive arsenal on display this year, and has gone for 18 or more points in three of four games, just narrowly missing with 17 points in 25 minutes against the Hawks in a game where he didn't play in the fourth quarter due to a blowout.
He faces the Pistons tonight in the second half of a back-to-back, and Detroit is allowing opposing power forwards to score at a high rate already this year.
Anthony Black OVER 13.5 Points (56%)
The player we've come to affectionately know as "AB" wasted no time making a big impact for the Magic in his first game of the season, dropping 18 points in 26 minutes against the Knicks.
AB's season debut https://t.co/YHN8JAlNeY
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) October 26, 2026
Black missed the entire preseason and Orlando's first three games, but didn't look rusty at all, shooting 6-for-11 from the field and knocking down five threes. With Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs both out for a while, he's going to have to take on a big role for this Magic team. He should start tonight, and his points prop is far too low for a player of his caliber.
We saw him break out last year when he was thrust into a similar situation. I expect him to play around 30 minutes and to have a big game here against Toronto in what should be a really good game, and likely a close contest that comes down to the wire.
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NBA Value Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET. All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Tari Eason OVER 6.5 Rebounds (49%)
Eason is likely to move into the starting lineup tonight with both Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams out for the Rockets. Houston will likely shift Jabari Smith Jr. to center and insert Eason at the four, where he has a plus matchup against Kyle Kuzma and a Milwaukee team that is giving up boards in bunches to bigs.
Eason is coming off an 8-rebound game against the Hawks and played 32 minutes in that one. Last year, he went over this number in six of the eight games that Alperen Sengun missed, with 8 or more in those six games. He's an excellent rebounder, and this game environment should produce plenty of rebounding opportunities.
Collin Murray-Boyles OVER 5.5 Rebounds (53%)
Toronto is set to deal with a multi-week absence of Kawhi Leonard, and CMB is one of several players who are going to have to step up in a big way.
While I expect others (like Ja'Kobe Walter) to help pick up the scoring for the Raptors, I also think the second-year big man Murray-Boyles is going to have to step into a larger role, too. He's yet to play 20 minutes this season, but his coach had talked about using him at both power forward and center this year, and resuming a sixth-man type role for Toronto.
I think his low minutes have more to do with Toronto being in a few blowouts early this year and with Walter shifting into the starting lineup; look for CMB to now play closer to 24-25 minutes per night. He's a low-usage player, but a tenacious rebounder who already has 6+ boards in two out of the Raptors' three games.
If we get 24 minutes for CMB tonight, I think he could easily grab as many as 10 boards in a good matchup with an undersized Orlando frontcourt that is allowing the most boards to opposing power forwards in the NBA so far.
Obi Toppin OVER 11.5 Points (54%)
I love targeting bench players who have significant roles in their team's current rotation, and Toppin certainly fits the bill there. He's playing 23 minutes a night off the bench, but has been a nice source of offense for Indiana, averaging 15.8 points per game with a 20% usage rate.
The steal turns into an Obi Toppin three. https://t.co/fCKObMOWf3
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) October 27, 2026
Indiana will be without starting center Ivica Zubac again in this game tonight, which bodes well for Toppin's playing time as Zubac's replacement at center, Jay Huff, simply rarely plays as many minutes as a typical starter, even when thrust into the starting lineup. Toppin can play minutes at the four, or some small-ball backup center minutes, and I expect him to continue to get up shots at a high rate.
He's gone over this number in all four games this season, and the Pacers will surely need his offense in this matchup with the Super Sixers.
Jaylon Tyson OVER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (52%)
Those who have followed my work know that I am a Cavs fan and also a huge fan of Tyson's game. He was a free square for us last season when he filled in as a part-time starter when the Cavs dealt with a bevy of injuries.
He's back to the bench this season, but is the first guy to sub in for Cleveland and is playing around 21 minutes a night. He's anchoring a very good second unit that also features sharpshooter Sam Merrill, EuroLeague veteran Mario Hezonja, and rookie bucket-getter Meleek Thomas.
Tyson can do a little of everything, and has already hit 20 PRA in his last two games. In a good matchup with Washington here tonight, I like him to keep up that solid production.
Good luck if you're tailing, and thanks for reading!
