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Minnesota Twins infielder (1B/3B) Miguel Sano had a terrific bounce-back campaign in 2019 after falling off of a cliff and back to the minors in 2018. Frank Ammirante evaluates his ADP in order to project fantasy baseball value for the 2020 MLB season.
Heading into the 2019 season, Miguel Sano’s career was defined by injuries and disappointment mixed with glimpses of potential. What was once one of the top prospects in baseball (Fangraphs ranked him #15 in their 2015 Top-200 list), had become an after-thought in fantasy drafts. He finished the 2018 season slashing .199/.281/.398, with just 13 HR in 299 plate-appearances, causing Twins’ management to send him down to the minors due to his poor performance at the plate. In addition to his poor play on the field, it’s also likely that his off-field issues and conditioning concerns were having a negative impact on his play, as well.
Sano came into 2019 with a clear mind and improved fitness, responding with the best year of his career, slashing .247/.346/.576 with 34 HR in 439 PA. That play was rewarded this past January with the Twins signing him to a three-year, $30 million extension, as Minnesota sent a clear signal that they envision him as a major part of their future.
Entering his age-27 season, it seems that the best is yet to come for the young slugger, who carries a desirable combination of prospect pedigree and prodigious power. It certainly doesn't hurt that Sano will be hitting in one of the best lineups in baseball. Let’s take a deeper dive into his 2019 season to help fully understand his potential going forward.
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Barreling Up With The Best
One of the most intriguing skills in Sano’s profile is his elite ability to barrel the baseball. His 21.2% Brls/BBE% ranked second behind only Joey Gallo, while his 10.7 Brls/PA% ranked 6th behind Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Joey Gallo, Gary Sanchez, and teammate Nelson Cruz. Sano led the majors with a 57.2% hard-hit rate while his 94.4 mph average exit velocity ranked second. His ability to generate hard contact is also reflected in his .537 xwOBAcon, a metric that uses expected weighted on-base average but excludes walks and hit-by-pitches. Put into context, Sano's mark in the category is higher than elite hitters like Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. There aren't many more ways to show that he is is a young hitter who absolutely punishes the baseball, giving him power upside that is in the top tier of MLB. Take a look at this 482 ft HR with 113.5 MPH exit velocity vs. Chicago White Sox
Another improvement that we saw from Sano in 2019 was his decreased groundball rate. Sano traded in groundballs for line drives, as his GB% decreased from 43.8% to 36.0%, while his LD% improved from 16.3% to 22.5%. Sano also began pulling the ball much more, as his Pull% rose from 37.9% to 52.7%. Given that we don’t want Sano to try to spray the ball to the opposite field - as that plays away from his strengths - it was also very encouraging to see his Oppo% decrease from 26.8% in 2018 to 14.9% this past season. This is encouraging news for his future outlook because it's apparent that he's made it more of a focus to swing for the fences.
Sano was also able to pummel the fastball this past year, which was something that he struggled with during the 2018 season. In 2018, Sano faced fastballs 54.7% of the time, against which he posted a .444 xSLG, .356 wOBA, and .314 xwOBA. In 2019, Sano faced 55.5% fastballs but jumped his numbers to a .684 xSLG, .459 wOBA, and .434wOBA. Just watch Sano turn on this 95 mph heater from Lance Lynn, whose 19.8 pVal in 2019 was the sixth-highest in baseball.
Sano’s main issue is his strikeout rate - his 36.2 K% ranked as the worst in baseball. This makes it likely for his batting average to fall within the .220-.250 range, which limits his upside in AVG formats. Sano helps make up for his strikeout issues with a strong walk rate, with his 12.5 BB% coming in as the 19th-highest in baseball, making him a solid target in OBP formats, as his .346 OBP is 0.99 points higher than his .247 AVG. His biggest weakness becomes much more manageable in this format and if Sano ever finds a way to cut down his K-rate by a few points, the young slugger would be in for a monster year.
Another Masher In a Stacked Lineup
The Minnesota Twins have a lineup packed with power, with an MLB-best 307 HR in 2019, including four players who hit 30+ HR and seven with over a .500 SLG% and added 37 HR to their lineup with the signing of Josh Donaldson. This is a terrific setup for counting stats production even though Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has preferred to bat Sano lower in the lineup, with 176 of his 439 PA coming in the sixth slot or lower last season. The good news is that this stacked lineup eases the blow of his low spot in the order - hitting seventh or lower in Minnesota's murderous lineup is just not the same as the same spot for the Marlins. Roster Resource currently projects him to hit eighth, behind second baseman Luis Arraez, but it's reasonable to think that Sano could move closer to the meat of the order if he continues to mash as he did in 2019.
Steamer is projecting Sano to slash .246/.337/.519 with 84 R, 37 HR, 97 RBI, and 1 SB over 581 PA in 2020; while projecting 37 home runs may not feel conservative, it certainly might be considering that Sano just hit 34 HR in only 439 PA.
Using Rotoballer's newest metric, Expected Draft Value, we can measure what kind of production is needed to earn a profit from different draft slots. To earn back the value of Sano's current 126 ADP in NFBC leagues, historical baselines for 5 x 5 Roto leagues tell us that he would need a .259 AVG with 29 HR, 76 R, 80 RBI, and 4 SB. However, putting up a .249 AVG, with 31 HR, 81 R, 84 RBI, and 5 SB would return the value of a 107 ADP. In short, this means that Sano would only need to put up this very achievable line in order to turn a profit at his current ADP - which seems more than reasonable given how projection systems are currently valuing him. But if Sano reaches 600 PA with the home-run rates he's already shown as being possible, then the former bust could easily bust out with more than 40 HR, earning his owners a massive profit in the process.
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