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Analysis of five fantasy baseball third basemen drafted in the middle rounds. Are these 3B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some mid-round third basemen for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
After a 2018 season in which he was mostly hurt, Donaldson took a one-year contract into 2019. It paid off—figuratively and literally—with a strong 2019 and a four-year, $92-million contract from Minnesota in January. The move should also pay off for fantasy owners, as Donaldson finds himself in a strong lineup, certainly no weaker than the one he had in Atlanta in 2019. Age may be the main mitigating factor in projecting Donaldson now, but 2019 was his best of the Statcast era in several statistics, including his barrel rate (15.7%), exit velocity (92.9 mph), and hard-hit rate (50.0%). All of those ranked in the top 4% of MLB. His contact also suggested more of a .269 hitter than the .259 he produced.
One area where Donaldson did not improve from 2018 to ’19 was swing and misses, going from 12.8% to 12.5% of pitches seen, which were the two highest marks since his rookie season back in 2010. That will be something to watch, but the overall profile still suggests someone who crushes the ball when he does make contact. Donaldson should hit another 35-40 home runs and the Twins lineup may allow him to post 100 each of runs and RBI (for just the third and second time, respectively). He won’t steal bases and the swing-and-miss leaves some concern about his batting average, but he should be drafted in the top 100 despite a slightly lower ADP of 108.
Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds
Reds second baseman Moustakas is an underrated power bat, especially now that he plays in Great American Ballpark, which was eighth in 2019 HR Park Factors per ESPN. Moose mashed 35 home runs with a career-best 9.1% walk rate and .262 ISO over 584 plate appearances for Milwaukee last season, which helped him land a four-year deal this offseason. His .252 career batting average won’t burn your pursuit of his 40-homer potential either. Do note he crushed 25 homers with a .263 average in just 84 first-half games, before slowing down the stretch. However, much of that was due to a left hand injury in late August, which left him unable to comfortably grip a bat throughout September, where he hit just .186 in 20 games.
If health holds in friendly Cincinnati, we should be looking at an undervalued source of 35-40 homers. Despite the injury-zapped September, his 35 homers were tied for 24th-most among qualified hitters with a .262 ISO that ranked 22nd. Power isn’t everything, but it feeds the bulk of our fantasy categories. With strong pop and MI/CI positional versatility on most platforms, Moustakas is worth locking in as a starting 2B or 3B in 12-team leagues per our staff rankings. We would recommend eyeing him around pick 100, while his early NFBC ADP of 122 signals a strong buy opportunity.
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner enters 2020 on the downside of his career. With so many great, young options at third base in fantasy baseball, the days of Turner as a must-start third baseman are coming to an end. The good news is that last season, Turner played in 135 games for the first time since 2016 and tied his career high with 27 home runs. The bad news is that he saw his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging all fall for the third-consecutive season. He also had a three-year high in K% (16.9) and a three-year low in BB% (9.3). Turner used to make his money on breaking balls. From 2016-2018 he batted .327 and slugged .551, but those numbers dropped in 2019. He managed a batting average of .262 and had a .397 slugging percentage versus the same types of pitches he used to dominate.
These trends usually don't turn around for an injury-prone, 35-year-old third baseman. Another factor in Turner's decline is that the Dodgers are in an excellent position because they have so many infield options. Cody Bellinger, Gavin Lux, Max Muncy, Corey Seager, and Enrique Hernandez will all be vying for playing time with Turner. With third base so deep, his declining ratios, and a team full of young talent, Justin Turner is only worth a draft spot if he falls later than his current ADP (169) on draft day.
Scott Kingery, Philadelphia Phillies
Kingery joined a rare group in signing a long-term MLB contract before he had even played a game in the big leagues. His rookie year was a letdown, but last season saw him post a respectable .258/.315/.474 line with 19 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 500 plate appearances. The 25-year-old logged time at second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions; he even recorded four outs as a pitcher. He enters the 2020 season eligible at only 3B and OF on most platforms (retaining 2B and SS on the less-stringent Yahoo standard), and will open the year as the starting third baseman after Maikel Franco was shown the door over the winter.
Perhaps having a regular home in the field will help Kingery remain consistent at the plate, which has been a problem for him to this point. He slumped badly in the second half of 2019, posting an OPS 179 points lower than he had before the break. Contact issues will likely continue to suppress his batting average, but Kingery offers 20/20 potential at a reasonable price (current ADP of 166).
J.D. Davis, New York Mets
Davis did everything the Mets and fantasy owners could have asked of him in 2019: He hit .307 with 22 home runs, scored 65 runs, drove in 57 RBI, and even threw in three bases without being caught. While Davis started 2019 without a consistent role, he clearly earned his spot as an everyday starter, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be given that opportunity in 2020.
Beyond the fantasy stat line, Davis improved almost every single one of his peripheral stats. He was more selective at the plate as he dropped his O-Swing rate from a below-average 32.4% to an above-average 27.9% and his overall swing rate from 50.1% to 48.8%. Likewise, when Davis decided to swing, he made contact more consistently by dropping his Swinging Strike rate to 12.4%. The batted-ball data shows a number of other improvements as well.
Davis improved his GB/FB ratio and hit more balls with authority while relying on pull power less often. The result was a .383 xwOBA that was good enough for 23rd on the leaderboard. Among full-time starters, Davis will have the best xwOBA versus ADP (173) of any player in the draft. Given the Mets’ current roster construction, expect Davis to get 150 starts while providing a .285 BA, 28 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI, and four SB.
