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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/17/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Taking down both games was a great way to start the week of KBO action. Naturally, both Samsung and Doosan's bullpens decided to make things interesting, including Seung-hwan Oh who recently returned to Samsung after a few-year stint in MLB. From a reader perspective, continue to look for more First 5 Inning and Team Total bets as we look to try and take bullpens out of certain matchups.
- Tuesday, June 16: 2-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 55-30-1 (64%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Wednesday, June 17th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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LG Twins (-205) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
LG: Chan-kyu Im (2-2, 5.24 ERA)
Hanwha: Chad Bell (0-2, 8.80 ERA)
LG has won five of their last six, including Tuesday's 9-5 win, despite a little late-inning prod from Hanwha. Roberto Ramos is still out of the lineup but he is expected to rejoin sometime this week (possibly Thursday). Eun-sung Chae and Hyun-soo Kim have helped carry things along quite well, but getting the slugger back will be a big boost to the Twins. LG is a road warrior team, scoring 6.5 runs per game, almost a run more than at home. They hit .272 against lefties which is fifth in the KBO, but with such a lefty-heavy lineup, it's certainly worth noting.
On the outside, it might look like Chan-kyu Im has had a rough start to the season, but it seems some bad luck is in play. No, he's still not that good, but he's finished six innings in five of his six starts, has allowed more than four runs just once, and also has just one game with a negative K/BB. Im has been touched up a few times, but his .333 BABIP against is due to come down a bit, and his 4.27 FIP is on a career-best pace.
Hanwha stunned many bettors over the weekend by sweeping a doubleheader against Doosan to break their 18-game losing streak. Over their last three games they've plated 15 runs, which is more than they scored in any three-game series across their losing streak. However, they do average less than three runs per home game. Jared Hoying's struggles continue but 38-year-old Tae-kyun Kim continues to pace the batting order over his modest four-game hit streak.
Chad Bell has been atrocious since returning to the Eagles squad in late May. His last start against Doosan was the first time he hit the 90-pitch mark but he still didn't complete more than 4.1 innings. Bell's numbers are surely inflated, but we have to remember the guy had very little time to prepare for the season and these foreign arms get used and abused in the KBO, he's better than the sub-9 ERA with a 2.02 WHIP. Last season, had a .294 BABIP, 4.11 FIP, and 76 % strand rate. The southpaw isn't an ace, but he'll need to start getting back to form before he joins his former Hanwha teammates who were removed from the roster.
I'm taking a gamble on Bell being closer to his 2019 version here, and with Ramos likely still unavailable, I think LG struggles against the southpaw. I'll never question you taking the RL against Hanwha daily, but I like this play much better tomorrow. Also consider the under is 11-6 in Hanwha home games so far.
Pick(s): Under 10.5 (-115, Draftkings Sportsbook)
KT Wiz at SK Wyverns (-129)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
KT: Byung-wook Jo (0-0, 4.50 ERA)
SK: Tae-hoon Kim (1-3, 4.91 ERA)
The Wiz offense have been pretty spotty as to when they show up and when they don't. Before scoring six on Tuesday, they got blanked Saturday by Samsung. Mel Rojas Jr. and Baek-ho Kang are back to hitting the ball at a consistently high-rate but it's the supporting cast around them that need to show up. They average five runs per game on the road, one of the better marks in the league and they'll look to best that mark against the southpaw Tae-hoon Kim. KT is mashing lefties to a .305 clip this season along with a solid .275 road average.
The 30-year-old Kim has performed admirably joining the rotation after spending all of 2019 in the bullpen. Through six outings, he has just one start with more than four runs allowed and has kept the ball in the park with just two homers allowed. But there is some regression due here. His 5.30 FIP is a little high but his opponent average and BABIP are just way too low. A .191 opponent average paired with a .213 BABIP against raise my eyebrows. The BABIP is second lowest in the KBO, behind NC's Chang-mo Koo and you can't convince me that these two arms are even remotely similar in talent. Just to get the point across, his 19/20 K/BB makes him the only qualified SP with a negative K-BB%.
KT has the best average against left-handers in the KBO and they're starting to see the writing on the wall. Their batting order is going to be what wins them games as their entire pitching staff continues to struggle. Going up against a lefty like Kim who is all but due for another big blow up start, I like the Wiz to pour it on Wednesday.
Pick(s): KT Team Total Over 4.5 (-137, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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