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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/12/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Thursday was a nice bounceback for me, after missing on each of my last six picks. The NC Dinos are so easy to target when betting on the KBO. They might not hit every time, but you at least feel safe when placing the bet. Lotte was an easy bet here as well playing Hanwha and it was a crisp game for them from beginning to end. Again, it was a breathe of fresh air for me after the regression I had been seeing, but tomorrow is another day.
- Wednesday , June 10: 2-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 53-29 (64.6%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Friday, June 12th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Kia Tigers (-155) at SK Wyverns
O/U: 8.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Drew Gagnon (2-3, 3.48 ERA)
SK: Jong-hun Park (3-0, 3.44 ERA)
Drew Gagnon is settling into the KBO quite nicely. His last time out he held Doosan to just three runs (just one earned) at home and he had back-to-back shutout starts against KT and Lotte earlier in the year. His 5 BB% hints that he's improved the control issues he faced with the Mets and his 29 K% is second best in the league. He's in great form right now and his 2.49 FIP says that he should only get better.
As an offense, Kia is quite unpredictable. After scoring just six runs in the Doosan series, they went onto score 21 against KT, with 18 coming in the final two. However, you can chalk that up to the Wiz's awful pitching. The Tigers average just 3.89 runs per game on the road, a full run less than when at home (5.1 rpg at home). There's no one main producer for Kia but Preston Tucker, Ji-wan Na, and Hyung-woo Choi have been the busier bats in the order.
The Wyverns have been quite competitive in their last two series', having a +1 run differential and a 3-3 record. They fell just short Thursday, 4-3, despite wracking up nine hits to LG's four. SK is hitting just .241 as a squad but guys like Jamie Romak have been performing better recently, as he has three homers and 12 RBI in his last 10. However, they do struggle to produce at home, batting just .238 while averaging just 3.87 runs as the host. It's odd how many teams are struggling to score runs at home in this league, but the Wyverns are in that category.
SK looks to Jong-hun Park to open the weekend series. The 28-year-old is on a nice little redemption tour after not having his typical double-digit win season in 2019. Through his first six starts, he has surrendered more than six hits just once and has only allowed more than three runs once. Park has given up three home runs but is on pace for a career high 24 K%. His 3.97 FIP is currently at a career-low so he's certainly due for some regression but he's been SK's best starter through their first 32 games.
Both of these pitchers are in good form right now, with Gagnon having the slight advantage. Offensively, neither side is on their favorite side of the field, as both average just under four runs per game in their home/away situation this series. I'm taking the under here but buying the hook up to 9.
Pick(s): Under 9 (-130, Draftkings Sportsbook)
Kiwoom Heroes at NC Dinos
O/U: 11.5
Probable Pitchers
Kiwoom: Seung-ho Lee (0-2, 7.39 ERA)
NC: Chang-mo Koo (5-0, 0.66 ERA)
Kiwoom might have lost each of their last two but their 6-4 in they're L10. Now they get to face the best team in the league on their home field. Seung-ho Lee will toe-the-bump to open the weekend series and his numbers aren't too great through six starts. While his ERA is through the roof, his 6.31 FIP isn't much better.
His one blow up start came against KT May 31 when he allowed eight runs in 2.1 innings. However, he hasn't allowed more than four runs in any other start. His control has been a real issue of late, holding a 2/7 K/BB over his last two starts; this could prove problematic against a lineup like NC. Lee has faced NC at home already and allowed four runs over six innings May 26, so these two have seen each other recently.
The Dinos lineup put up seven Thursday after almost getting blanked on Wednesday. This team does not like being shown up and they make it known by their bouncebacks. They get a juicy matchup against a southpaw Friday, and they're hitting lefties at a .292 clip. Guys like Aaron Altherr, Suk-min Park, and Jin-sung Kang should feast on Lee. The Dinos are without a doubt the safest team to target at home, and their .315 average in Changwon is proof of that.
Kiwoom is no slouch and have really started to boost their way through the standings, but Chang-mo Koo is a different animal. The lineup behind him is too. There's no question the RL is a solid play here but there is way too much juice with it, so I'm going back to trusting the Dinos' lineup. This is the exact same bet from Thursday and I like it just as much as I did against Doosan's shoddy pitching staff.
Pick: NC Team Total Over 6.5 (-118, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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