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Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2023 Ryder Cup. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
The question on every golf fan's mind right now is "Can America, despite always looking stronger on paper, break a 30-year drought of wins in Europe?" Well, at some point in this article I have a take on this and a bet to back it up. We get an extra day to fiddle with bets and DFS lineups as the tournament kicks off as we all head to bed on Thursday night on this US side of the Atlantic, with only the true die hards and sickos putting their marriages, jobs and sleep schedules on the line to engulf the most passion-fueled entertainment golf can offer.
In this article you will find most total point props across all those markets, individual golfer total points over/unders and of course, the team to win this bad boy! If you are looking to get a deeper understanding of how each of the 24 golfers will fare on a hole-by-hole strokes-gained level, what their optimal format and pairings look like, how many matches I expect them to play and a best bet for your favorite golfer, I have you covered right >here<. 11,000 words of unadulterated Ryder Cup research.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's get into the bets!
Top Points Scorer ($10)
This is the only market that includes all 24 golfers privileged enough to take part in this year's Ryder Cup. You find the longest odds in this market as a result of this. We have three bets in this market, with two Euros and an American. Before we dive into who they are, my logic behind these bets was to focus on the Euros, because on paper, their team is not nearly as statistically deep as the Americans, forcing Captain Donald to likely send out Rory, Rahm and Viktor 5 times, especially if they get off to a slow start. There is a good chance two of those three play five times for Europe. America being afforded a little more talent down the board, could rest their guys a little more, with Scottie the most likely to play all 5.
Jon Rahm +1200 $4.5 (now +1100 on BetRivers)
He played all five matches at Whistling Straits and is very likely to do so again at Marco Simone. He is missing his side piece, Sergio, who is probably mumbling some grumpy obscenities while sitting on a giant pile of coins like a Spanish Scrooge McDuck, somewhere. Rahm's game is elite enough to carry any partner he is paired with, most likely having to do most of the shouldering of responsibilities in the fourball portion of the event, where I expect most of the Euro rookies to make their debut appearances, with Rahm potentially taking Nicolai Hojgaard under his wing in 2nd session on Friday. If he plays with Viktor, Tyrrell or Rose in foursomes, those pairings have as good a chance as any to win some points.
Viktor Hovland +1200 $4.50 (now +1000 everywhere)
*If you want to get Viktor to +1250, DK has a +250 boost on Top Points Scorers.
Hovland played all five matches in 2021, not winning a single one... I know right? However, that likely changes this time around, with a short game that has seen a bigger resurgence than Kevin James and Taylor Swift memes combined. Hovland's youth and RIDICULOUS iron play out of thick rough is going to suit this course so well! I have him slated to introduce Ludvig Aberg to the Ryder Cup in the fourball sessions, while I think the best pairing for the team is to partner him with Matt Fitzpatrick in foursomes, despite it hurting Vik's overall chances. If they go with Rahm or somebody else instead, this bet is even more appealing.
Sam Burns +7000 $1 (now +6000 on Circa)
This is strictly a number grab at Circa that I made late last night as all other books have Burnsy at +3300 or shorter. I understand that most of you reading this don't have Circa, but figured I would just put it out there. My reasoning: 1) Burns won the match play this year. 2) He went 0-3-2 at the Presidents Cup but Scottie had the shanks for 3 of those losses. The key takeaway here… 5 matches! 3) He is pretty much guaranteed 2 sessions of either 4ball/4somes with the World No. 1 and best buddy, Scottie. 4) If he shows some good form early and the putter on these pure greens starts causing Cameron Young to have a flare up of the night sweats back home, Burns could run the tables. The chances this happens is unlikely, and if you don't have access to this bet, just make Rahm and Viktor $5 bets each.
Top Rookie Points Scorer ($13)
*Golfers in this market (projected matches): Max Homa (4), Wyndham Clark (3), Sam Burns (3), Ludvig Aberg (3), Nicolai Hojgaard (3), Sepp Straka (3), Robert MacIntyre (3), Brian Harman (3)
Max Homa +400 $12.50 (Points Bet)
Max played and won all four of his matches at the Presidents Cup and he finds himself as the highest ranked rookie on the OWGR (7th). He likely doesn't have to take on any of the other rookies who all have some sort of defect to their game despite two of them stealing the Open and US Open this year. If Homa is paired with Brooks in fourballs (twice) and Scottie in foursomes (once), as I have projected, those are three incredibly powerful pairings and if he shows he is in fantastic form, he may get rewarded with a 5th match. Looking at the names he has to score more points than, I have all of them projected no more than 3 matches. If a few of them get hot, this could change, but we can only make bets on what we know right now, and Max should see at least 4 matches with awesome partners, making him the clear favorite to bring this bet home.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Top Captain Points Scorer ($2)
Golfers in this market (projected matches): Brooks Koepka (4), Tommy Fleetwood (4), Collin Morikawa (4), Justin Thomas (3), Jordan Spieth (3), Justin Rose (4), Ludvig Aberg (3), Rickie Fowler (3), Sam Burns (3), Sepp Straka (3), Shane Lowry (3), Nicolai Hojgaard (3)
Justin Rose +1100 $2 (now +1000 at Ceasars)
I am probably far too optimistic on Rosie's chances this week and the delightful numbers we are presented with are not helping resist my Rose addiction either. But if we look above to the projected matches I have for each of his market rivals, only three others will play 4 matches. I know Rose missed the 2021 Ryder Cup and is 43 years old which presents an interesting narrative. Will they roll out the 43-year-old in less than 4 matches, the first time in his RC career, or will his overflowing tea-mug of experience be a vital calming influence on his three partners he plays with (hopefully). Rose is co-leader with Rory for most points earned in Ryder Cups, but has done so in 5 less matches than McIlroy. He is a savage in these events and if he gets the likes of Tyrrell Hatton and Jon Rahm as his partner, I really like his chances at these #LowRiskHighReward odds.
Top USA Points ($12)
Scottie Scheffler +470 $11 (FanDuel)
Don't over think this. He is easily the best player on team USA and the favorite to play all 5 matches. This market avoids the three Euro studs who are the main rivals to also play 5 matches. Cantlay, Max and Brooks give me a bit of concern in this market, but we will trust Scottie to do what Scottie does in match play and dominate. Nothing more to it than that. He has also been working with Phil Kenyon, a very respected short game guru in the industry, which could see Scottie rolling in a few more putts than we have become accustomed to. It sure as heck can't get worse.
Top USA Captain ($15)
Golfers in this market (projected matches): Brooks Koepka (4), Collin Morikawa (4), Justin Thomas (3), Rickie Fowler (3), Sam Burns (3), Jordan Spieth (3)
Brooks Koepka $15 +335 (Now +350 on Caesars)
As we mention in my research deep dive piece, Brooks has done the same thing, year in and year out. He plays one match on Friday, both on Saturday and then takes care of business in singles on Sunday. With only Collin slated to play 4 matches in this market, I like brooks to get at least three points in his starts, especially if the rumors of him and Scottie playing a session of foursomes together is true. Brooks and Max will also be a fantastic fourball pairing, giving brooks a great path to 4 potential points.
Top EURO Captain ($13)
Golfers in this market (projected matches): Tommy Fleetwood (4), Justin Rose (4), Ludvig Aberg (3), Sepp Straka (3), Shane Lowry (3), Nicolai Hojgaard (3)
Justin Rose $13 +380 (FanDuel)
Suprise!!!!! We are back for another hit of Rose powder. Same principle as the top overall captain's pick, but with no Americans. Ideally, he only has to outduel Tommy with no Molli, a drug Tommy was hooked up to all of the 2018 Ryder Cup, but Francesco Molinari is no longer attainable on the streets of Rome. Tommy won 4 of his 5 Ryder Cup points as part of team MoliWood.
Individual Points Over/Unders ($10)
Jordan Spieth UNDER 1.5 -110 (DK)
If you read the write up I had for Spieth and JT in my research article, this bet would come as no surprise. Justin Thomas is -125 for the same bet, so considering they are going to play both matches together, why not grab the better odds of the two and see what happens in the singles. This is basically a small hedge against the bet we will make to win the Ryder Cup, as I think the chances of USA hinge on these two dudes. If they get rolled out twice and lose both matches, well, the job for USA just got that much harder, which, based off their current play entering the week, is very likely.
Spieth's only top 10 metric is his strokes gained around the greens, which, is no surprise when your GIR% is 23rd in a field of 24. He owns one of the worst birdie %s on tour, which is critical for match play. It will not be a shock to see both Thomas and Spieth fall flat on their face this week, however, it would be even less shocking if the two of them scatter magic beans all over Marco Simone on Thursday night and pull victories out of a very gloomy, statistically depleted hat. We will lean on the side of the stats for this one, expecting them to lose both matches which would lock this bet up before the singles on Sunday.
TO WIN THE RYDER CUP ($20)
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA +100 (Now +110 and getting better and better each day)
On paper, the US team is statistically deeper than the EUROs, but as the last 30 years would show, that does not necessarily mean they will win. But reason number one we like the Americans, is their statistical dominance overall, even with Spieth and JT on the team.
Second, the first few names I wrote about in the research article for the US side had made their first appearance at Whistling Straits in 2021, with most of them not losing a match. Their Ryder Cup scar tissue is non-existent, which is a massive difference compared to what the likes of Phil, Tiger and co. had in the back of their minds the last few years. On the flip side, Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia not being on the European side of things leaves a gaping hole of experience and points that needs to be made up, which is a monumental task for even the likes of Rory, Rahm and Viktor.
On EURO soil the last three Ryder Cups, Europe has waxed USA, 17.5 - 6.5 in foursomes. Not ideal to get off to that kind of start as the visiting team. Enter Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, a foursomes duo that has been rock solid in just about every event they have played alternate shot in. One would imagine they lock up both points in their two matches. Anybody that you pair with Scottie Scheffler is going to produce a pairing that appears insurmountable, not to mention Max Homa and Brooks Koepka being those guys making that pairing just that much more insanely tough. Those four matches alone should stand a great chance to halve the foursomes sessions, with JT/Spieth hopefully sneaking out a point in their two matches. I have Collin and Brian Harman paired together, which is not statistically prolific, but if you put two one of the world's best iron players with the best putter in the event, you could get some phenomenal results.
On the Euro foursomes side, their three studs are going to either pair up with a Fitzpatrick, Straka, or Lowry, none of which inspire any confidence based off recent results. If two studs play together, that puts a lot of their eggs in one basket, and if that basket is held by Patty X and/or Scottie Max/Brooks, it is not a guaranteed W. Lowry and Fitz have been about as allergic to birdies as Spieth has been, which will put a lot of pressure on anybody they partner with.
In fourballs, the US team has been much better on EURO soil splitting the last three years 12-12. They once again have the superior birdie makers on their team, with their 8 best guys averaging 12% more birdies over 18 holes than Europe's 8 best.
In singles, USA has the advantage gaining just shy of 2 more total strokes as a team, with the total rankings 27 spots better for USA. Of the 144 possible combinations that can take place in singles matchups, USA would win 85 of them which is 59%. If the US team is behind by 1.5 points entering singles, 59% of 12 matches is 7-5, which makes a Sunday comeback statistically likely, excluding the crowd and other external factors that could impact their chances. LET'S GO!!! USA!!! USA!!! USA!!!!
Matchups
One of the best parts of the Ryder Cup is betting the matchups in each session. With the way this event is going to work out for American fans, the majority of content creators are going to be sleeping or struggling to get their matchup picks out in time between sessions. I have poured my soul into this week's content and created a matchup tool for each of the three formats that you can use to make your own bets in the wee hours of the morning.
If you are interested in getting your hands on this tool, use code "MANIAC" for 10% off a >weekly premium subscription< and grab the google sheet in our discord, or just reach out to me in my DMs on Twitter/X @TheModelManiac and I will hook you up with the sheet. It also includes all the models used in my research article AND a DFS / Power Rating Tool that helps identify value plays and power ratings for each session/format based off unique pairing combinations that you think will be rolled out.
Matchup Tool
- Plug in the pairing combination for your desired format
- Plug in Vegas odds for the matchup
- The model will kick out power ratings and an edge for the matchup with anything greater than 0 a playable number
DFS / Power Rating Tool
If you want to determine how a playing partner impacts a golfers overall power rating, you can put any combination of teammates into the four slots for each session. For foursomes, you can determine which tee is most optimal for the pairing by changing the odd/even tee for the partners you plugged in.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
USA to WIN Day 3 +110 (BetMGM)
If the US team is down too many points heading into Sunday, at least we will have a Sunday sweat on USA to lean into that 59%-win rate above and make a Sunday charge in singles. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in USA's favor!!!
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