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We're back with five prop bets to consider for another loaded Friday night in MLB. Although I've gone heavier on hitter prop bets in a couple of my recent articles, I'm reversing that trend tonight. There are three pitcher scenarios I'm interested in, including one where I see a right-hander playing a part in the Reds snapping their memorable win streak.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, June 23, 2023, in this article. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luke Weaver OVER 3.5 Earned Runs allowed (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Weaver has pitched to no shortage of contact all season, surrendering 71 hits over 57 innings on his way to a 1.54 WHIP. Both handedness of hitters have given him trouble, as he's yielded a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .399 wOBA to righty bats.
The Reds are naturally the talk of baseball at the moment, but the Braves certainly have the talent to break up their streak. Atlanta has been dangerous against righties on the road in the last month as well, producing a .278 average, .828 OPS and .353 wOBA in that split while striking out at just an 18.3 percent clip.
Current Atlanta bats also have a collective .826 OPS over 71 career encounters against Weaver, and the veteran has given up at least four earned runs in seven of his 11 starts. The Braves also averaged the fourth-most runs per road game (5.4), including an MLB-high 3.5 per first 5 innings in that split.
Zach Eflin To Record A Win (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eflin has a solid 9.0 K/9 across his 13 starts, good for a 25.5 percent strikeout rate. The right-hander has been nearly unhittable at home, where he owns a 7-0 record, 1.85 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9.
The Royals have struggled offensively all season, and they'll enter Friday with a 25.1 percent strikeout rate, .299 wOBA and -4.3 wRAA against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month. KC is also producing the second-fewest hits (7.5) and fewest runs (3.3) per road game overall.
The Rays are as high as -286 favorites as of Friday morning as well, and Eflin has garnered a decision in 11 of his 13 starts while falling just a single out short of going at least five innings in every turn.
Chris Bassitt To Record A Win (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bassitt gets a crack at his old Athletics squad Friday, and after running into the buzzsaw of the Orioles and Rangers lineups on the road in his last two starts, drawing the A's at home should be a proverbial oasis in the desert. The Athletics have shown signs of improvement on occasion, but they're still carrying significantly sub-standard numbers versus righties.
Oakland has a .219 average, .282 wOBA and -24.1 wRAA along with a 24.8 percent strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching in the last month. Bassitt has also been exceptional at home, pitching to a 3-1 record, 2.18 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 over 41.1 innings.
The A's are also averaging the fourth-fewest runs per road game (3.97), while Bassitt has recorded a decision in 12 of his 15 starts and has gone at least five innings in all six turns he's taken at home. The Blue Jays are also as high as -303 favorites as of Friday morning, furthering Bassitt's chances of hitting this prop at a great price.
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MLB Hitter Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Fernando Tatis Jr. - To Hit A HR (+250 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tatis' body of work this season underscores he's been good against virtually any pitcher put in front of him, as he owns a .898 OPS overall and has ripped 31 of his 64 hits thus far for extra bases.
However, Tatis has particularly been lethal against left-handed pitching, and even more so at home. The slugger owns a .417 average, 1.667 OPS and .660 wOBA in 28 plate appearances versus southpaws at Petco Park, with those numbers partly the byproduct of a 26.7 percent line-drive rate and 57.9 percent hard-contact rate.
He's also punished Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin for a .571 average over nine career encounters, striking out just once in that sample. Moreover, Corbin has surrendered 14 extra-base hits, a .311 average and .403 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, giving up a 2.7 HR/9 and 25.8 percent HR/FB rate along the way.
Finally, consider Tatis has crushed Corbin's top three pitches -- the sinker, slider and four-seam fastball -- compiling respective .376, .409 and .451 wOBAs while belting 12 of his 15 homers on those offerings.
Fernando Tatis Jr. - San Diego Padres (15) pic.twitter.com/6Jy0zGedlF
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 21, 2023
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs +RBI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Acuña is a leading MVP candidate for good reason, as he boasts a .324 average and .952 OPS overall. The surging slugger has benefitted in every way from the wealth of talent surrounding him in the Braves lineup, as he's driven in 47 runs, accrued 97 hits and scored 63 runs over 73 games.
Acuña gets a plum matchup with which to continue adding to those numbers Friday, as he's punished Weaver for a .364 average in 11 career encounters. What's more, Weaver has been eviscerated by right-handed hitters at home to the tune of a .333 average, 1.132 OPS and .465 wOBA.
Notably, Acuña has also been at his best on the road, where he went into Thursday sporting a .353 average and 1.093 OPS across 158 plate appearances, and where he'd hit 12 of his 15 homers on the season. The Braves have the second-highest projected run total of the slate as well -- a massive 6 runs that's only outpaced by the Angels' projected number at Coors Field -- which makes this prop all the more attractive.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is the 1st player in MLB history with 15 HR and 30 SB in the first 70 games of a season. pic.twitter.com/YBA4MRcbWh
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 17, 2023
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