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We have a full day of baseball today on the docket. This includes split DFS slates and an opportunity to bet on teams and players all day. Tonight's last game starts at 8:10 PM, so maybe we can even get some sleep tonight. Matthew Liberatore gets his call-up for the Cardinals today. We have a day game in Coors Field and many other spots that will make today a great day of baseball.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Matthew Liberatore OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matthew Liberatore gets the much-needed call-up here for the Cardinals to bolster a struggling rotation. Liberatore, the Cardinals' top pitching prospect, debuted in 2022 and was average. His K stuff is above average, as he has floated around 23% K the last two seasons in the minor leagues. Last year in his brief major league stint, he had a 17.4% K. In Triple-A in 2023, he has a 30.3% K, the best in his career.
The matchup against the Brewers couldn't be better for left-hand pitchers. The Brew Crew lead baseball against left-hand pitching with a 30.7% K, three percentage points higher than the second-place Mariners. They are bottom three in wRC+, wOBA, and SLG, so the chances of Liberatore pitching deep into this game are very good.
Taijuan Walker OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm usually on the side of picking on Walker in DFS, so this is a bit different for me to be betting on him here, so bear with me. Walker gets a great strikeout matchup here with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants are second in baseball against right-hand pitching with a 25.3% K. They have a 112 wRC+, so Walker should get hit around here, but all we need is five strikeouts.
Walker in 2023 has a 22.0% K with a 9.7% SwStr. These numbers will not jump off the table, but Walker has reached five strikeouts in five out of eight starts. One of the three starts he didn't get there was in Coors Field. Today will be his best strikeout matchup to date.
Yu Darvish OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yu Darvish will face the Kansas City Royals at Petco Park. Darvish has a 27.3% K, 3.76 SIERA, 8.1 % BB, and an 11.4% SwStr. Darvish swing-and-miss stuff has been excellent over his last three starts as well. He has nine, six, and seven strikeouts, one of those including a game in elevation in Mexico.
His opponent, the Kansas City Royals, is fourth worst in baseball, with 24.7% K against right-hand pitching. They are last in wRC+ and the bottom ten in wOBA and SLG. Darvish will have a real chance of pitching deep into this game. If you want to go all in on his props, I love his outs and the opportunity to get a win.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Senzel OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Nick Senzel has been red hot since returning to the IL last month. He's hitting .275 with four HRs, 18 Rs and RBIs. He matches up in Coors Field against Austin Gomber. Gomber has a a 5.21 SIERA and a 1.80 HR/9. This season, he has a .335 wOBA, .225 ISO, and a 36.4% hard hit against right-hand batters. Senzel has been smashing lefties for as long as I can remember, and 2023 is the same story. He has a .534 wOBA, .296 ISO, and a 39.1% hard hit this season. Let's play it safe with the total bases, but if you would like to bet his home run at +700, I won't argue it.
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