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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, July 17, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a 10-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, July 17, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jordan Lyles under 15.5 outs (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Tigers and Royals open up a four-game set tonight in Kansas City with the struggling Jordan Lyles getting the ball for the home side.
Lyles will enter this one sporting a 6.42 ERA on the season while his 5.51 FIP and 5.18 SIERA aren't encouraging figures, either. The right-hander has allowed a hefty 1.86 home runs per nine innings while he's seen his ground-ball rate dip to just 32.6%, well below his 44.3% career mark.
Despite his struggles, Lyles has been given a long leash. He has gone at least five innings in each of his last eight starts. However, he has failed to record more than 15 outs in five of his last nine outings. The veteran has also benefited from a .256 BABIP that is miles below his .302 career mark. Yes, he's been lucky while posting a 6.42 ERA.
The Tigers aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut with a .289 wOBA versus right-handed pitching that is tied for 28th in baseball. However, this is a lineup that has gotten healthier of late after dealing with a plethora of injuries for much of the season. It's a lineup capable of knocking Lyles out of this contest before he can entertain more than 15 outs recorded.
The numbers point toward the under in this case so let's hop on board and bet against the scuffling 32-year-old tonight.
Sonny Gray over 2.5 earned runs (+120, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Minnesota Twins open up a series with the Seattle Mariners tonight and it's Sonny Gray getting the ball for the road team.
The veteran right-hander has enjoyed a stellar season, tossing a 2.89 ERA across 18 starts. However, Gray also sports a 4.15 SIERA that is miles above his surface ERA figure. He also boasts a tiny 3.7% HR/FB clip that is not only unsustainable but is also roughly 8% below his career average. In other words, there is regression coming for Gray sooner than later.
The Mariners haven't exactly raked this season. Their .307 wOBA off righties sits 20th while their .162 isolated power off righties is tied for 15th. However, they sit in the top 10 in walk rate off righties which should give them run-scoring opportunities against a pitcher set to regress moving forward.
Perhaps that regression has kicked in as Gray yielded six earned runs his last time out while he has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four and in five of his last eight starts.
We'll follow the numbers and look for Gray to surrender at least three earned runs tonight, especially considering his 4.63 xFIP on the road.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
J.D. Davis over 1.5 total bases (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Reds left-hander Brandon Williamson just isn't getting it done.
After tossing a 6.62 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A, Williamson has worked to a 5.21 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 5.01 SIERA across 10 starts in the big leagues. He has surrendered 1.54 home runs per nine innings and has allowed ground balls on just 35.2% of the balls put into play against him.
Additionally, Williamson has surrendered an .805 OPS and .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters. A 5.40 ERA in 26 2/3 home innings won't help while Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the best hitter-friendly venues in baseball.
So, let's simply grab a right-handed Giants bat at plus money in the form of J.D. Davis. Davis should hit in the three-hole in this one while he owns a strong .211 isolated power versus left-handed pitching versus a .152 mark against righties. He actually sports fairly even splits in his career but the power has been superior against lefties via a .184 ISO off of them versus a .166 mark off righties.
Clearly, Williamson is a pitcher worth targeting on this slate and we'll use Davis to capitalize in this matchup tonight.
Kerry Carpenter over 1.5 total bases (+115, DraftKings sportsbook)
We detailed Lyles above but what a run Kerry Carpenter is on entering this one.
The Tigers' projected cleanup hitter homered three times in Detroit's three-game set in Seattle over the weekend while notching 14 total bases in the series. The underrated slugger has pummeled right-handed pitching to the tune of a .272 ISO and .861 OPS on the season while he's held his own against lefties as well, posting an .839 OPS against same-handed pitching.
As noted above, Lyles gives up a wealth of dingers. Carpenter himself has homered off the veteran in one of his six plate appearances against him while also notching a single in that time. This is a guy that ambushes fastballs and Lyles has thrown fastballs on nearly 50% of his pitches this season.
We're getting plus-money odds on a red-hot player with plenty of power against a pitcher that surrenders a ton of homers. Sign me up all day long on this one.
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