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What a day for baseball! So many close games, including an extra inning-game in which both teams scored double-digit runs as the second leg of a double-header in Coors, and plenty of tight finished. As we head into the month of June, this is what baseball is all about.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Thursday, June 2nd, 2022, for the 12-game 1:05 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With some interesting matchups on tap, there are some value opportunities that are quite enticing. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -120
SD: Sean Manaea | MIL: Adrian Houser
As we want over on Tuesday, there may be no team that has been more difficult to figure out this season than the Padres, who are coming off of being swept by the Cardinals, though still are ten games over .500 thanks to their elite run prevention. As it turns out, we are going back to the well for them again.
With San Diego dealing with some injuries to their rotation, they are sure glad they traded for lefty Sean Manaea right before the season started. In nine starts, the 30-year-old carries a 3.55 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) with an 18.1% K-BB ratio, and has seen his velocity stabilize after struggling with it early in the season. The Brewers have the fifth-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) versus lefties this season, which makes sense since a majority of their top hitters in their lineup (Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong) hit from the left side.
Making matters even better for San Diego, they have the clear pitching advantage here. With just a 7.9% K-BB ratio and a 4.48 SIERA, it's been a slight struggle for Brewers starter Adrian Houser, who is also inducing the fewest amount of ground balls (50%) of his career by a notable margin. As someone who tends to live outside the zone, facing a team in the top-ten in terms of not swinging at pitches outside the zone and the fourth-highest walk rate isn't a good fit for him.
With these being two relatively even teams and San Diego having the clear pitching advantage, it is a surprise they aren't a favorite here. It's been a struggle as of late, but consider this to be the game where they break through.
Pick: San Diego ML (+102), FanDuel Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -118
SEA: Chris Flexen | BAL: Jordan Lyles
Coming into the season, expectations were high for the Mariners, who went all-in to finally break their 20-year postseason drought. Instead, they're 21-29, the same winning percentage as Baltimore, the recipient of this year's #1 overall pick. Simply put, this far from the start of the season they were expecting to have.
Still, let's bank on a ray of sunshine looking over them today. Entering Wednesday, they ranked 5th in wRC+, and are even better versus right-handed pitching. Yet, they rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of runs scored, which is quite the disconnect. Based on THE BAT X projections, six of their nine hitters are projected to be league average or better, and they now face a pitcher (Jordan Lyles) projected for a 5.18 ERA by Fangraphs Depth Charts projections.
On the other hand, the Orioles entered Wednesday in the bottom five in wRC+. Starter Chris Flexen hasn't been completely reliable, but there are few better ballparks for him to pitch in, given his home run problems, that the expansive Orioles Park. With him struggling to find the zone (43.4%) this season, facing a team in the top-five in chase rate should help him, and he's still the pitcher with the lower projected ERA in this game. Even if you call it a toss-up between these two pitchers, we should happily want to side with the team with the far superior offense in an even pitching matchup, especially when the price is very reasonable.
Pick: Seattle Moneyline (-118), FanDuel Sportsbook
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TB -123
TB: Corey Kluber | TEX: Taylor Hearn
Believe it or not, but Corey Kluber actually was a Ranger once upon a time. Well, for at least one inning. To be fair, everything from 2021 is a blur.
With a 3.51 SIERA in nine starts this season, Kluber is actually having a very productive season for the Rays. Despite their recent hot stretch, the Rangers still rank in the bottom ten in terms of wRC+ and aren't as strong against righties without Brad Miller (currently on the injured list) at the top of their lineup. Excluding his first start of the season, Kluber has a 20% K-BB and 3.32 SIERA, and it's hard to go against him right now.
Meanwhile, the Rangers will have to turn to Taylor Hearn here, who sports just a 10.2% K-BB with a 4.43 SIERA and a 10.2% walk rate. Eno Sarris' predictive pitching+ model labels him with a 95.6 pitching+, certainly below-average, and he's only pitched over five innings in one start this season. Considering Texas ranks in the bottom ten in bullpen Wins Above Replacement, that's problematic.
When the better team also has the notable pitching advantage, it's nearly impossible not to side with them. The Rangers' recent hot stretch has made this price more available, and, now, it is time to capitalize. Regardless of which side you're high on, remember: never doubt Tampa Bay.
Pick: Tampa Bay Moneyline (-123), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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