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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 9 (10/29/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We only have 42 games on our Saturday this week. I guess that means if I get 25 right again, I will finally have a good week. The start last night was rough. Thanks to Utah for sitting Cam Rising and not telling anyone until after kickoff. We appreciate it!
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I really need to leave Eastern Michigan the hell alone!
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 9 (10/29)
(2)Ohio State(-15.5) at (13)Penn State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is creeping upward and it should. It still feels low. Penn State was able to contain Ibrahim last week because Minnesota couldn't pass. Ohio State won't have that affliction. The playoff train rolls on. OSU BIG!
(7)TCU(-7.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is as drunk as the people at the Local H show last night. TCU by a couple of dozen!
Notre Dame at (16)Syracuse(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Are we still pretending that Notre Dame is good? If this game were in South Bend, I would think this line is fair. Not in the Loud House. Syracuse by double digits!
Arkansas(-3.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Auburn has problems stopping the run, but so does Arkansas. I expect a big game out of both backs and K.J. Jefferson here. I'll take Arkansas, but this is going to be a tough game.
Oklahoma(-1.5) at Iowa State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If I really thought that Oklahoma was going to win this game, I would probably go. Unless the defense made huge improvements in the last two weeks, I think we lose in Ames for the second straight time. To put that in perspective, these teams have played almost yearly since 1928 and that has never happened. However, this is a betting article, and most sites have little to no juice on the Sooners. I'm placing a small wager on us because it's free money and this is a winnable game.
Boston College(-7.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So, big, (allegedly) bad Boston College is coming down off of Chestnut Hill to play in Hartford? What could possibly go wrong? Everything. I wouldn't even be shocked if BC lost this outright. Give me UConn, but there's no way I would bet this. This is going to be football at its ugliest.
Georgia Tech at Florida State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This outrageous line leads me to believe that Vegas believes Jeff Sims is not playing. I'm wondering if they know something the world didn't after last night's Utah line. I wouldn't rule it out. Still, the Tech defense has been pretty good even though the offense hasn't. This is too many. The Wreck won't win, but they shouldn't lose by more than 21.
South Florida at Houston(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate picking both of these teams because neither one is consistent. USF will be even less consistent without Gerry Bohanon, who is done for the year. I'll take Houston, but I really hate betting on them.
Toledo(-6.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
How will the Eagles burn me this week? They won't! I've grown wise to their games. They play better than they should on the road and are lousy at home. Rockets by a million!
Miami(OH)(-8.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a touch high. The Zips are playing pretty well right now and the Redhawks were very sloppy last week. I'm not sure that the Akron defense can force Miami into the errors that Western Michigan did last week. Still, the only team that Miami has beaten by more than a field goal was Robert Morris. Give me Akron. They have at least a puncher's chance at an outright win.
Miami(FL)(-1.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No! ...just...no. I hate everything about this game and betting on the teams involved. Miami has been torched on the backend, but this Virginia offense doesn't even know what the backend is this year. They adjusted the playbook a bit against the Wreck, but it still didn't net the big plays that the Hoos were noted for last year. Give me Virginia. I can't in good faith lay anything on the Hurricanes right now.
Charlotte at Rice(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Charlotte defense is so bad that it makes Akron look good. No, seriously. They do. Charlotte has allowed the most points in FBS this season by 40 points more than Akron. Give me Rice.
Rutgers at Minnesota(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No one knows the status of Tanner Morgan, so this line has been yanked off the boards in a couple of places. The one thing that Greg Schiano did upon his return to Piscataway was shoring up the defense. If Morgan plays, I'm going Minnesota. If not, give me Rutgers.
Old Dominion at Georgia State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I've missed on the Monarchs quite a bit this year. Give me the Panthers at home.
Florida vs. (1)Georgia(-22.5) at Jacksonville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's a rivalry and they are millions of gallons of alcohol involved. Maybe not amongst the teams, but who knows? This feels a bit high. I have no basis for this aside from it being a rivalry. There's little juice on the Gators and a lot on UGA. I don't trust it. Give me Florida, but I'm not laying anything on this one. There are much better spots.
(8)Oregon(-17.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cal defense was pretty strong against Washington. I don't see a whole lot of differences between Washington and Oregon this year besides the defense. Do I really think Oregon can hold the Bears to 11 points less than Washington did? Yes, but I wouldn't bet on it. Give me Cal. This has the look of a trap game.
(9)Oklahoma State at (22)Kansas State(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Vegas thinks Adrian Martinez will be fine. So do I. That still doesn't mean that I think K-State wins. I still like OSU straight up. I'll keep taking the money since Vegas has no faith that the Pokes aren't frauds. The public has wised up. There's a ton of juice on the OSU side. I've seen it as high as 122.
(10)Wake Forest(-3.5) at Louisville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Louisville did not look great against Pitt last week, but that's what the Pitt defense does to you. Wake is not capable of doing that. I have questions about the Louisville run game outside of Malik Cunningham and Wake's in general. If this game is won through the air, that's a huge advantage for Sam Hartman and those receivers. Give me Wake.
(17)Illinois(-7.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I do think that Nebraska is markedly better than they were under Scott Frost. Now the bad news: Illinois has allowed the least points in FBS this season (yes...even less than Georgia) and Nebraska can't stop the run. Well, hello Chase Brown! I like the Illini by 10-14 points or so.
(20)Cincinnati at Central Florida(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get it. The Cincinnati defense has let teams back into games when the offense seemingly put it out of reach. Still...UCF was dominated by East Carolina last week. The UCF defense has issues on every level. I still like Cincinnati straight up.
Northwestern at Iowa(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you like punts, this game is for you! If you like terrible offense, this game is also for you! If Ryan Hilinski was still starting for Northwestern, I would take Iowa. Now, I don't think they're good for a defensive touchdown, which means Iowa has no chance of beating anyone by double digits. Give me Northwestern. This is too many.
New Mexico State(-2.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is going to be a lot of bad football this weekend, but this could be one of the worst games in recent memory. I'm almost relieved that it's not on TV in my area because...I would still watch it. Now I get to save my eyeballs and watch the undercard in Northwestern-Iowa. Give me the Aggies, but you won't find this anywhere near my betting card.
Temple at Navy(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a little bit high. Tulsa barely covered the Owls by this and I tend to think they're better than Navy. Give me Temple, but I'm also leaving this one alone.
SMU(-2.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust that SMU defense at all. Give me Tulsa.
North Texas at Western Kentucky(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the anti-New Mexico State-UMass game. There will be tons of points, but not enough on the WKU side for them to cover. North Texas hung with a good UTSA team. Give me the Mean Green. This is too many.
Missouri at (25)South Carolina(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know that the Missouri defense has played well, but this feels low. Their offense can't get out of its own way. South Carolina might have turned a corner last week. Cocks by at least a touchdown!
South Alabama(-9.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Red Wolves are in a free-fall and the Jags have played better on the road than in recent years. Give me USA.
(19)Kentucky at (3)Tennessee(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kentucky was caught looking ahead last week. They'll show up here. This is too many. Tennessee won't lose, but this should stay within ten points. Give me the Wildcats.
(10)USC(-15.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This looks low. Arizona has allowed an average of 36 points per game this season, mostly against lesser offenses. So, Vegas is basically asking me if I expect Arizona to score 21 points. No. No, I do not. Not even close. Give me USC by somewhere near double this line.
Colorado State at Boise State(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is down a little, but that's still a lot of points. CSU hasn't looked all that bad of late (I know...ringing endorsement). Give me the Rams, but I'm not touching this.
Coastal Carolina at Marshall(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This surprises me a little. I thought CCU would still be a slight favorite. Khalan Laborn will be an issue for the Chanticleers and this offense lost too many playmakers from last year. I think I have to go with Marshall.
UAB(-4.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Get it here if you can. I've still seen it at -3.5 in one spot, but it's back up to -6 in most places. People must love the FAU threads for this Saturday night showdown and following the mantra of "if you look better, you play better." If that's true, FAU has a shot at an outright win. If those uniforms can't stop DeWayne McBride, it's a problem. Give me UAB.
Michigan State at (4)Michigan(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know...this feels high. Michigan has only covered Spartacus by this twice this century (2002 and 2019). I feel like Michigan State doesn't really have any business hanging around, but they will. They are in no danger of winning this, but I don't think Sparty loses by 20 either.
(15)Mississippi(-1.5) at Texas A&M
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This kind of feels like an overcorrection to Ole Miss losing control against LSU. It should be vaguely familiar to the Aggies as well. This feels a little low. I feel pretty good about the Rebels by a touchdown. Give me Ole Miss.
Arizona State(-11.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
J.T. Shrout is in again for the Ralphies. Statistically, Owen McCown isn't a lot better than Shrout, but the offense sure moves better when he's in there. Give me Sparky. This feels a little low.
Baylor at Texas Tech(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In Lubbock, huh? Give me Tech. They looked really, really good last week.
Pittsburgh at (21)North Carolina(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Forgive me if I don't trust the Pitt offense or the North Carolina defense. UNC looks like the far better team, but I guess looks can be deceiving. They shouldn't be here. I'll take the Heels.
Middle Tennessee State at UTEP(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't really know what to do with this and neither does Vegas. It's off the board in places and one place still has MTSU favored. I like UTEP, so the three points isn't much of a deterrent. The Miners have been pretty good at home this year.
Stanford at (12)UCLA(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Stanford has been winning ugly, but I'm not sure they can do that against the Bruins. The UCLA offense still looks good. Stanford locked down Notre Dame and Arizona State, both of whom have had issues moving the ball at times this year. Still, this is touching the upper edges of Stanford's loss margin. I'll take the Cardinal. This feels a little bit high. Stanford won't win, but this should stay around two touchdowns.
San Diego State at Fresno State(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Considering that Jake Haener still hasn't practiced since he left the USC game, I would think that Logan Fife is the starter. Jalen Mayden has played a game and a half as the starting QB for the Aztecs and already leads the team in passing yards by 215. That's how bad the SDSU pass game was. This feels high. I wouldn't be shocked if the Aztecs won outright. Give me SDSU.
Nevada at San Jose State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ouch! That's a lot of points. Shane Illingworth looked serviceable for the Pack last week. That should be enough for him to keep the job, but the bar is low right now. I'll take the Spartans, but I don't feel particularly good about it.
Wyoming(-10.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Titus Swen looked really good last week. The problem is that Wyoming's offense does that. They look good for a week or two, then they fall off a cliff. This feels a little bit high. I'll take Hawaii since Wyoming can't really throw the ball to pack on the points.
I've grown feathers this week. 30 of my 47 bets are either one or two points. I have a season-high nine on the one line, so the other 21 are on the twos. I toned the three-point bets down to eight thanks to two really bad weeks on the three in recent weeks. I toned down the fours to four as well. However, I have five max bets this week, which is by far a season high. There's still enough to get excited about!
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