RADIO
Dan's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 4 of 2026. He looks at potential warning signals from Brian Thomas Jr., Quentin Johnston, David Montgomery, Tyler Allgeier, and Kyle Pitts Sr.
Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us, and so we have another round of fantasy football to prepare for. It also means a new edition of Warning Signals is here. In this column, I will highlight a handful of players involved in some troubling trends that might spoil your week, and maybe your season.
After three weeks, I’m ready to throw in the towel on the players I present this week. They may not all be outright drops, but after what we have seen from them so far, I could be convinced to sell low.
If you are agonizing over who to start and who to sit, or who to cut and who to pick up, RotoBaller’s NFL hub has you covered. Check in regularly for rankings updates, matchup reports, and more to help you win your week. To get started, read on for the Warning Signals I see for Week 4 of fantasy football.
Bookmark our updated and revamped fantasy football rankings portal for all league formats!PPR rankings | Half-PPR rankings | Standard rankings | Rookie rankings | Superflex rankings | Dynasty rankings | Who To Start? | Injuries | Matchup Ratings | Strength of Schedule
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Forgive me for stating the obvious, but Brian Thomas Jr.’s sophomore slump appears to be more than just that. After putting up an 87-1,282-10 line as a rookie in 2024, Thomas looked like the league’s next star wide receiver, but regressed to 48-707-2 in his 2025 follow-up. Through the first three weeks of 2026, Thomas has just seven catches for 88 yards on 13 targets.
The real star of the show in Jacksonville nowadays is Parker Washington. Washington broke out in the second half last year, including a four-game stretch to finish the season that saw him score three touchdowns and average 6.5 receptions and 113.5 yards per game. Through the first three games of the season, Washington is commanding a whopping 31.5% target share.
Giving credit where it’s due, Thomas does have the second-most targets in Jacksonville, though his route participation is roughly two-thirds that of Washington’s and Jakobi Meyers’, making him the team’s de facto WR3. It’s sad to see such a fall after he took the league by storm just two years ago, but the fact of the matter is that Thomas is not a priority in the Jaguars’ offense, and he therefore shouldn’t be one on your fantasy roster either.
Week 3 was a new low for Brian Thomas Jr
- 37% snaps (4th among Jags WRs - Josh Cameron played more)
- 14 routes (3rd among Jags WRs - 43% vertical)
- 1 target, 1 rec, 8 yds (all career lows)The Jags version of Marvin Harrison Jr
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 28, 2026
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnson got off to a blistering start in 2025, catching 22 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns in the first four games of the season. Johnson’s pace slowed considerably after that, but the brilliance he showed in those early weeks suggested he was on the cusp of realizing his potential.
With offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel joining the Chargers in the offseason, it looked like Johnston was poised to make the leap. Unfortunately, McDaniel’s offense has failed to get off the ground. Over the first three weeks of 2026, Los Angeles has the lowest rate of drives resulting in a score, the fourth-fewest plays per drive, and the tenth-fewest plays per game.
For his part, Johnston has simply played poorly. Johnston leads the team with 17 targets but has converted those chances into just receptions for 64 yards. Despite playing injured, Ladd McConkey (foot) has turned 15 targets into a 12-183-1 line, and the emerging Tre’ Harris is up to 10 catches for 149 yards on 16 targets himself. Johnston, who has a reputation for having unsteady hands, has two drops already through three games.
On top of his own deficiencies and being on the losing end of team trends, Johnston’s upcoming schedule doesn’t offer much hope for a turnaround. Starting in Week 4, the Chargers will face the Seahawks, followed by the Broncos and then the Chiefs, with matchups against the Rams and Texans immediately following their Week 7 bye.
David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans
Despite being part of a tandem backfield in Detroit, David Montgomery was a productive running back for fantasy football teams. From 2023 to 2025, Montgomery put up 33 touchdowns and at least 900 scrimmage yards each season. After an offseason trade sent him to the Texans, it was thought that he would find another level of production since he wouldn’t be splitting time with Jahmyr Gibbs.
After Week 1, it seemed that that expectation was going to be reality. In his debut with Houston, Montgomery handled 20 carries to Woody Marks’ nine and scored two touchdowns. The initial result looked promising on its surface, but a look under the hood revealed another timeshare in the works. Montgomery actually finished the game with one fewer snap than Marks, who ran for 4.7 yards per carry to Monty’s 3.0 and converted just as many first downs (five).
Montgomery was shut down by the Bengals in Week 2 (so was Marks, for that matter) to the tune of six rushes for all of 10 yards, and again worked in a near-even split with Marks. Montgomery had more of an edge in Week 3, but it was another inefficient day for the 29-year-old vet, gaining just 33 yards on 11 attempts.
So once again, Montgomery is involved in a split backfield, but no longer benefits from being part of a dynamic offense like Detroit’s and is working behind a worse offensive line. Through three games, Montgomery has the second-lowest yards before contact among running backs.
The Colts stacked the box on 63.6% of David Montgomery’s carries, which led to -0.92 EPA. Through three games, Montgomery ranks 46th in yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att) and 66th in yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) out of 69 qualified running backs (min. 10…
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 28, 2026
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Similar to David Montgomery, Tyler Allgeier was a perhaps overqualified RB2 with his former team who was reasonably expected to step into a starting role with his new team in 2026. And, like Montgomery, a new timeshare was thrust upon him after the Cardinals drafted Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Love’s preseason ankle injury helped push Allgeier into the team’s RB1 role at the start of the season, and the veteran had a healthy lead in the backfield’s snap share in the first two weeks of the season. In Week 3, Love took over as Arizona’s feature back, and Allgeier was relegated to handling just two handoffs, netting -1 rushing yards.
Even in the Cardinals’ first two games, when Allgeier was seeing most of the snaps in the backfield, the team was not intent on using him. He did get 17 carries for 61 yards in the season opener, but Love himself had 11 rushes for 41 yards and his first career touchdown. And even with Allgeier maintaining a healthy lead in snaps in Week 2, he ceded most of the actual work to Love, who had 12 touches to Allgeier’s seven.
Allgeier’s usage with Love healthy has nullified any hope for him to be a productive RB2 in a one-two combo backfield. Furthermore, his inefficient production has diminished his value as a potential handcuff. He might be an option worth exploring if Love does fall injured, but not one that demands to be stashed in the meantime.
Mike LaFleur FINALLY unleashed Jeremiyah Love in Week 3, similar to how he unleashed rookie Breece Hall in Week 3 four years ago
Jeremiyah Love/Tyler Allgeier split:
Snaps
JL - 63%
TA - 37%Routes
JL - 19
TA - 21Opportunities
JL - 26
TA - 6Fantasy points
JL - 21.9
TA - 4.9 https://t.co/1fCo45jzcG— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 28, 2026
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE, Atlanta Falcons
I don’t know if there is a football player more bewildering from a fantasy perspective than Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. Pitts has the size and physical tools that should make him an elite receiving tight end, on a team whose receiving depth should place a heavy demand on his skills. While we have seen it from him in bits and pieces over the years, the Falcons have failed to turn to him with the consistency that would make him a set-and-forget tight end.
So far this season, Pitts has hardly been involved in Atlanta’s offense. Through three games, Pitts has two catches for 20 yards on six targets and is being outproduced by the Falcons’ TE2, Austin Hooper, who has a 4-31-1 line on 30 fewer routes. In PPR leagues, Pitts ranks as the overall TE64.
Michael Penix Jr.’s return in Week 3 rejuvenated an Atlanta offense that scored just 16 points and 524 yards of total offense in the first two games of the season. Penix being back under center doesn’t guarantee things will improve for Pitts. For one, the tight end had just one catch last Thursday. Secondly, in 12 games with Penix as his starting quarterback, Pitts has two touchdowns and averaged 5.25 targets, 3.75 receptions, and 36.75 yards per game.
Pitts is in a good spot for a rebound game against the Saints in Week 4. Last Sunday, New Orleans let Brock Bowers go off in his season debut for 10 catches, 116 yards, and a touchdown. If Pitts can get anywhere close to that, fantasy managers rostering him will then be in a good spot to sell and get off the roller coaster early.
Who Should I Start Tool
Not sure who to start? Check out the Who Should I Start tool:
Compare up to four players and we'll tell you who to start...
More Fantasy Football Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
