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Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for fantasy football Week 4? Is Brian Thomas Jr. a safe player to cut? Read the fantasy football outlook.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is off to another poor start in 2026.
Thomas was once a fantasy football star after posting an 87-1,282-10 rookie season in 2024. However, his fall from grace has been stunning, leaving his fantasy owners flabbergasted.
So, is it time for gamers to pull the plug on a once promising young player? Let’s take a few minutes to discuss.
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Should I Drop Brian Thomas Jr. in Fantasy Football?
The unfortunate answer to this question is yes -- but with a caveat.
But first, we’re going to dive into why Thomas is a cut candidate. Through three games, Thomas has only been targeted 13 times and has posted a paltry 7-88-0 line this year. This continues a trend that we saw throughout 2025.
This is largely due to head coach Liam Coen’s offensive scheme and the fact that Thomas is just not a reliable option over the middle of the field and clearly seems uncomfortable functioning in such a role.
That is why he has been replaced by Parker Washington as the team’s WR1 because Washington is more than willing to do the dirty work needed to move the chains. This is also the same reason why Thomas has seemingly been surpassed by Jakobi Meyers on the depth chart, too.
It has also effectively limited Thomas to a vertical X receiver role. That’s not necessarily bad for Thomas’ skill set, as he’s proved he is capable of producing big plays downfield.
LAWRENCE DEEP TO THOMAS JR. FOR 58 YARDS.
📺: #NEvsJAX on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/tV2yIBPDoe— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
However, it can also lead to wildly frustrating results for fantasy football.
The other problem for Thomas is that we just haven’t seen him produce when Trevor Lawrence is healthy and under center. Here are Thomas’ splits with and without Lawrence (Data courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite):
Without Lawrence (8 games)
- 6.5 receptions per game
- 85.9 receiving yards per game
- 5 receiving touchdowns
- 29% targets per route run (TPRR)
- 2.59 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 29.3% target share
- 37.8% first-read rate
With Lawrence (26 games)
- 3.5 receptions per game
- 53.5 receiving yards per game
- 7 receiving touchdowns
- 21.7% TPRR
- 1.99 YPRR
- 16.7% target share
- 20% first-read rate
As you can see, there is a strong shift in the data for Thomas when Lawrence has missed time as opposed to when he’s been on the field. Some of Thomas’ metrics with Lawrence are not terrible. However, they certainly show he is not Lawrence’s top priority and definitely do not point to a high-end fantasy wide receiver.
The fact is, we just haven’t seen Thomas produce at an elite rate when Lawrence is healthy. Seeing as they’ve been teammates for three years now and are still searching for chemistry suggests these two are not on the same page. That also suggests Thomas’ skill set probably is not a good fit with Lawrence.
We also have to take a minute and ponder why Thomas has been unable to replicate his rookie year success under Liam Coen. Coen is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, so for him to be unable to coax the best out of Thomas is perplexing and seemingly further confirms that Thomas just is not a good fit with this current Jacksonville regime.
If you’re sitting 0-3 or are a bottom-tier 1-2 team, then you have no choice but to cut bait for someone who can actually help your team.
Now, if you’re still with me, let’s circle all the way back to the caveat I mentioned at the beginning of this section.
If you can swing it, you should try to hold onto Thomas as long as you can. If it’s become abundantly clear to all of us that Thomas is not a fit with Jacksonville, then it’s also become obvious to other NFL teams, too. That means there is a decent chance that Thomas could be on the move prior to the NFL trade deadline on November 10.
In fact, there was already a report that Thomas is a potential name to watch as the trade deadline approaches.
Brian Thomas Jr. Continues to Draw Trade Interest https://t.co/IEKLgdSevL
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 30, 2026
We have a few instances of receivers being traded midseason and performing at a high level. Amari Cooper in 2018, Davante Adams in 2024, and Jakobi Meyers last year are a few good recent examples.
Despite his flaws, Thomas is still a talented player, and a change of scenery could really benefit him. So, if you have a deep bench and can afford to hang onto Thomas for a few more weeks, you should consider doing so. He could emerge as a real asset down the stretch if he gets traded to the right team.
But again, if you’re sitting in a bad spot, then you probably have no choice but to send Thomas packing, as it's getting harder to justify hanging onto him at his current pace.
Who Should I Pick Up for Fantasy Football?
Elite wide receivers are tough to come by on waivers. However, you’ll likely find a few who can surpass Thomas’ current production.
Chris Bell is coming off a nice Week 3 performance where he was targeted seven times and posted a 4-67-0 line. He is still rostered in just 5% of leagues. Caleb Douglas is also trending toward missing another game this weekend, so Bell could be a valuable WR3 or flex play. Fellow Dolphins wide receiver Malik Washington remains rostered in 21% of leagues and is also a viable add.
Mack Hollins is only rostered in 4% of leagues and is another possible short-term replacement. Hollins led the Patriots in targets last week and posted a 6-87-0 line. New England’s offense is a mess right now (largely due to Drake Maye), but if it is going to be in negative game scripts, then Hollins will always have a chance to produce.
Kalif Raymond is coming off a 6-90-1 effort against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. He’s rostered in 23% of leagues and could be another option if you believe he has long-term viability.
If none of those names sound appealing, but you are also fed up with the headache that comes with rostering Thomas, you could look to stash a backup running back. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (39% rostered), Mike Washington Jr. (34% rostered), Brian Robinson Jr. (24% rostered), Ray Davis (10% rostered ), and Seth McGowan (1% rostered) are all viable options to consider.
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