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Ever since Josh Allen morphed into an unstoppable force of nature on the football field, running backs in Buffalo have had limited fantasy football value. This offseason, the team said goodbye to starter Devin Singletary and signed former New England Patriot Damien Harris to tag-team with their 2022 second-round pick, James Cook. There’s potential fantasy value to be had in this backfield, depending on how the workload is distributed.
Here are some of the previous Fantasy Football outlook articles covering some of the biggest NFL free agency moves this offseason:
- DJ Moore's Trade to Chicago
- Derek Carr's Signing in New Orleans – How Does This Affect Carr and Chris Olave?
- Miles Sanders Signing with the Carolina Panthers
- Aaron Rodgers Trade to the Jets and the Impact it Has on Him and Garrett Wilson
- Darren Waller Trade to the New York Giants
- Brandin Cooks Trade to the Dallas Cowboys
We also cannot forget that the Bills traded for Nyheim Hines before the deadline last season and didn't utilize him. He adds another wrinkle to this equation, as does the recent signing of Latavius Murray. We’ll be looking at what fantasy managers should make of this backfield, what the workload might be, and which running back they should target this year. Let’s get started, and please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.
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Meeting the Buffalo Bills Backfield
There’s a whole heck of a lot of turnover happening in the Bills’ backfield this offseason, and it is essential to figure out how all of these pieces will fit together to identify where the fantasy value lies.
Let’s begin with Nyheim Hines because he’s the easiest. The team acquired him just before the NFL trade deadline from the Colts, and barely used him the rest of the season. Including the playoffs, Hines appeared in 11 games for Buffalo and finished with six carries for -3 yards. That's not a typo.
During that time, he played on just 11.5% of the snaps. He also averaged 1.1 targets and a 3.5% target share. Hines was a non-factor on offense, operating only as the team’s primary punt returner, and that’s likely the role he’ll reprise.
The recent signing of Latavius Murray might have thrown the biggest wrench into how this backfield will play out. He was Denver’s primary running back last year, finishing with 171 carries, 760 yards rushing, and six rushing touchdowns, while also having appeared with the Saints. He chipped in 27 receptions on 35 targets for 132 receiving yards as well. He’s probably viewed as veteran insurance with the injury issues fellow free-agent signee Damien Harris struggled with last season.
It would seem that the most likely players to lead this backfield are James Cook and Damien Harris. As previously mentioned, Harris struggled to stay on the field last season, playing in just 11 games and being limited in several others. However, just two years ago, he rushed for 929 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 202 carries with New England.
While Cook was a rookie last year, he improved as the season progressed and finished as one of the more efficient running backs in the NFL, albeit on a smaller sample.
| Player | YAC/Attempt | BrkTck/Att | True YPC | Juke Rate |
Breakaway Run Rate
|
| J, Cook (2022) | 2.0 | 29.7 | 5.3 | 27.7% | 12.1% |
| D, Harris (2022) | 1.5 | 21.2 | 4.2 | 35.0% | 3.8% |
| D, Harris (2021) | 2.3 | 13.5 | 4.3 | 27.7% | 6.9% |
| D, Harris (2020) | 1.9 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 28.2% | 5.1% |
| L, Murray (2022) | 1.6 | 34.2 | 4.2 | 17.2% | 4.1% |
| L, Murray (2021) | 1.8 | 11.9 | 4 | 12.4% | 3.4% |
| L, Murray (2020) | 2.0 | 36.5 | 4.4 | 12.4% | 3.4% |
From the table above, Cook certainly was the most explosive and effective runner last season. You can also see that Harris, even in an injury-filled 2022 season, has been more effective than Murray in the past three seasons. This should only strengthen the belief that Harris and Cook will see the vast majority of the workload.
As far as catching the ball is concerned, Cook has a clear and obvious advantage over Harris and Murray. Last year, Cook averaged 8.6 yards per reception and 1.65 yards per route run, which far exceeds what we’ve seen from his two teammates.
Over the past three seasons, Harris has averaged 7.0 yards per reception with a 1.11-yard per route run average. Murray has been even worse, averaging just 6.3 yards per reception with a 0.94-yard per route run average. Fantasy managers should be expecting Cook to operate as the primary, almost sole, pass-catching back for Buffalo in 2023.
Workload Distribution
In order to get an idea of what kind of workload each one of these running backs will get in 2023, we need to understand what kind of volume the Bills’ running backs have received in recent seasons. We’ll be using the last few years of data to do this, but we'll be placing additional weight on the 2022 season for two reasons. First, it’s the most recent sample we have, and second, there was an offensive coordinator change prior to 2022, with Ken Dorsey taking over for Brian Daboll.
| Year | RB Carries | RB Targets | RB Carries Inside the 10 | RB Carries Inside the 5 | Josh Allen Carries Inside the 10 |
Josh Allen Carries Inside the 5
|
| 2022 | 292 | 101 | 25 | 8 | 15 | 11 |
| 2021 | 310 | 91 | 42 | 17 | 18 | 8 |
| 2020 | 308 | 73 | 28 | 16 | 16 | 9 |
For the most part, we’re seeing numbers that are fairly similar across the board, with the 2020 season standing out in terms of RB targets and the 2021 season for RB carries inside the 10-yard line. By giving more weight to the 2022 season, we can reasonably expect the Bills’ running backs to combine for 301 carries, 92 targets, 30 carries inside the 10-yard line, and 12 carries inside the 5-yard line. The big X-factor is whether the team finally seeks to limit Josh Allen’s rushing workload inside the red zone. If that happens, the running backs would naturally get more of those opportunities.
| Player | Carries | Targets | RB Carries Inside the 10 |
RB Carries Inside the 5
|
| D, Harris | 135 | 9 | 16 | 8 |
| J, Cook | 121 | 64 | 9 | 2 |
| L, Murray | 39 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| N, Hines | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
The table above assumes that Harris will have a 45% share of the rushing work, Cook 40%, Murray 13%, and Hines 2%. While the rushing work will be divided among the committee, the receiving work is more consolidated.
Cook has a 70% share of the targets, with Hines contributing 15%. Harris is at 10% and Murray is at 5%. While this makes Cook the more attractive fantasy option in any PPR scoring league, we should expect Harris to have more scoring opportunities near the goal line, which will increase his fantasy appeal.
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TDs | Half-PPR PPG |
| J, Cook | 605 | 48 | 384 | 4 | 8.64 |
| D, Harris | 634 | 6 | 42 | 7 | 6.62 |
| L, Murray | 160 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1.49 |
| N, Hines | 24 | 11 | 88 | 0 | 0.98 |
The table above displays the projected stats at the end of 2023 based on the workload splits previously discussed. As you can see, there’s not much fantasy value to be had.
While you may disagree with the workload splits for rushing and receiving, the reality is that there just isn't enough volume in the Buffalo offense for any single running back to be fantasy relevant.
Harris and Murray are primarily early-down plodders, while Cook and Hines are better suited for change-of-pace and receiving roles. In the event of an injury to Harris or Cook, their roles may not change significantly. Murray would likely take over for Harris should he get injured. Hines would handle most of Cook’s receiving work while leaving his rushing duties to be split up between Harris and Murray. Even with an injury, it's unlikely that fantasy managers will find much value here.
If you’re going to take a swing on one of these running backs, Cook is your best bet due to his receiving role and more explosive skillset, but he should be considered no more than an RB3.
Harris is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent player and is best suited for standard-scoring leagues. Overall, this is a backfield that fantasy managers should likely steer clear of, despite the high-scoring offensive system.
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