DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The World Wide Technology Championship Golf Advice With Maverick McNealy, J.J. Spaun, Harry Hall and More (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The World Wide Technology Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The World Wide Tech Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

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• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 120
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

Last Five Winners of the World Wide Technology Championship

***Only year at El Cardonal

Expected Cut-Line At the World Wide Technology

El Cardonal

7,452 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Paspalum

El Cardonal was designed by Tiger Woods in 2014 and features wide-open fairways that can be as broad as 60 yards off the tee.

I used that information last year to build a driver-heavy model that looked into distance golfers that could bludgeon this course with their length. However, the leaderboard didn't quite present that narrative when you consider Ludvig Aberg was the only golfer to post a top 10 result for the week while ranking inside the top 50 on tour in driving distance in 2023.

While even that singular return had flaws since Aberg is an elite talent who doesn't play by the same narrative as most on tour, it started to push me in this direction that my model needed a slight overhaul since players hit a ridiculous 90% of fairways for the week, culminating in over an 80% GIR rate.

I have never been a massive fan of extrapolating one-off metrics into being a definitive answer, but this course delivers about everything that is wrong with modern golf today since even the moniker of "resort-style" outlooks will get a bad name when players are returning a 90%+ fairway rate.

I dove into some of the rudimentary trends of how someone is projected to perform on accessible courses that render slow greens, but I would say the real separator this week will come down to creating opportunities and making putts.

If nothing else, El Cardonal does have massively oversized greens that will add extra emphasis to iron play and putting on a slow Paspalum surface. Separating in that area will go a long way.

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total Driving + Proximity + Putting (30%)

Non-Weighted Strokes Gained Total Driving + Proximity + Putting (10%)

Strokes Gained Total - Easy Scoring (10%)

High-End Irons + Putting (20%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Strokes Gained Putting - Slow Greens (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

Top 55 this week

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

There are reasons for and against Max Greyserman being listed at the top of the slate, but my main focus in this section will be the general overpricing that my model found on Cameron Young.

My math ranked Young 109th putting on slow greens and a troubling 82nd when taking his past 24 rounds into account when combing off the tee, putting and approach play.

This felt like a spot where the market credited him with more name recognition than actual production.

*** The best way to take advantage of this take would be to target him in head-to-head matchups.

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I have no issues with Ben Griffin or Matti Schmid for DFS. Both are safe options that came very close to making my outright card. However, there was a slight edge (without considering ownership) when diving into Maverick McNealy, Harry Hall and J.J. Spaun.

While the floor leaves more to be desired for all three of those options, most of the high-end statistical categories preferred taking a shot on the trio because of their upside totals.

The margins are extremely thin for five players who all deserved consideration in the $10,000 range, but let's see where ownership lands before locking in a concrete take in this section.

I will likely deploy all five for DraftKings and am betting McNealy, Spaun, and Hall outright. Any of those names against Cameron Young would be worth considering for matchups.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

There are many names that fall somewhere in the middle, but these are the names on which I have drawn a definitive line in the sand on this week.

Options I am interested in: Sam Stevens/Matt Kuchar

Options I am out on: Harris English/Jhonattan Vegas/Taylor Moore

Vegas is likely going to get a ton of ownership for what is a lackluster statistical profile. 

I prefer to move up the salary scale to the $9,000 range when possible. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

There is a ton to like with Chandler Phillips, Carson Young, Patton Kizzire, Nick Hardy, Bud Cauley and Daniel Berger. 

One of the items my model found with Berger and his upside came down to his increase in projection when faced with a slow-putting surface. That climb from 91st on any random surface to 31st here could provide more upside than we have received recently. 

$6,000 Options to Consider

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Max Greyserman
$9,000+ - Maverick McNealy/J.J. Spaun/Harry Hall
$8,000+ - Sam Stevens/Matt Kuchar
$7,000+ - Daniel Berger
$6,000+ - 

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ - Cameron Young
$9,000+ - Lucas Glover/Keith Mitchell
$8,000+ - Jhonattan Vegas/Taylor Moore
$7,000+ - Cameron Champ
$6,000+ - 

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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