DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Advice (2023)

March 1, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Chris Kirk captured his first PGA Tour title since 2015, outlasting 34-year-old rookie Eric Cole in a sudden-death playoff. The result marks Kirk's third top-three finish to begin the 2023 season and moved him to 32nd in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Golf's current landscape can be a confusing one when we look at designated events often turning basic contests like the Honda Classic into inferior fields, but the ability for any player around 50th (or higher) in the ranking system to go out and secure two-year status is a highly beneficial method for those that are looking to create a more straightforward trajectory of safety when it comes to maintaining your card. Expect more of these boom-or-bust fields moving forward, but the victories will count the same if you are able to pull off the win.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Arnold Palmer Invitational

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The API Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

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• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 120 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: 23

Last Five Winners Of Riviera

Expected Cut-Line

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

7,466 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

Bay Hill is an awkward course that has been known to present unique dispersion of scoring throughout different iterations of the contest. There was a massive increase in strokes gained around the green in 2022, whereas 2021 heightened approach and 2020 emphasized off-the-tee returns. That level sometimes makes the handicapping process more straightforward when statistics like putting won't be as impactful to scoring. However, the lack of statistical predictability makes this contest a nightmare for most golf pundits to try and run numbers for because of the overall uncertainty yearly.

I think we can look at some of the basic model outputs, such as the fact that we get a long course over 7,400 yards that typically presents difficult scoring conditions and lightning-fast Bermuda greens, to understand that the 85 sand traps and 10 water holes will only enhance the already brutal three-inch rough. Still, we have to take a stand somewhere that doesn't only run rudimentary results to mimic the course.

I noticed that almost all your scoring has to come on the four par-fives and shorter par-fours. That isn't uncommon for most challenging tracks, but the 33.5% to 56.7% for par-five birdie or better percentage at the four stops gives a massive advantage to those that can find scoreable opportunities to salvage their score for the more challenging locations. Only two other holes yield a birdie rate over 17.5% (par-four 10th and par-four 13th) – two zones measuring 400 yards or less – and most other spots force the need for long iron excellence, which we see a 6.1% increase in approach shots from that range over the 18 holes.

Overall, an all-around game will go a long way for those trying to succeed, but that answer always limits some metrics since anyone who excels in one of the three main strokes gained categories can triumph over the venue. I believe a standard tee-to-green rate should be measured in your model this week, but it is worth noting that controlling your ball out of these lies can be nearly impossible at times because of the dense nature of the grass. Most approaches will lack the apex and spin needed to hold these fiery greens.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Tee To Green (25%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (10%)

Strokes Gained Total - Long/Difficult Courses (12.5%)

Strokes Gained Total Fast Bermuda (12.5%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Ball-Strike (10%)

Weighted Prox 150+ (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories:

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group:  It is hard to take a massive stance against anyone in this group when we look at them being my model's top three options. Early ownership would push me toward using Jon Rahm for the contrarian leverage he is creating, but let's see where numbers and tee times come in over the next few days since massive gusts in the forecast could play a significant factor.

Jon Rahm ($11,500)

Scottie Scheffler ($10,900)

Rory McIlroy ($10,600)

I wanted to lay all three golfers next to each other for easier viewing. You will notice the steadiest profile from Jon Rahm, which we have come to expect this season. And that is before we get to the high-end upside output from Rory McIlroy – who grades first in three of the seven categories. The $900 discount between the two creates a possibility to save a few bucks, but it will have to come at closer ownership than what we currently see as of Monday afternoon. I'll power rank the group Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler, but all three are top-notch choices for a reason. I don't want to talk anyone out of the route they feel most comfortable. I have a bad habit of condensing player pools so far that quality choices get overlooked for no reason.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group: 

Will Zalatoris ($9,400) - Zalatoris was the only golfer in my model to grade inside the top 10 of all seven categories I ran a weight for this week. The upside is exceptionally enticing if you can still find a 25/1 or higher in the market, and while the ownership is high and likely won't decrease much by Thursday, it is easy to understand why the price is too low for his potential if he draws the right side of the draw.

Tony Finau ($9,300) - Finau has almost become a victim of his success lately, consistently registering lower when it comes to ownership than you would expect because of his recent run of no top-fives to begin the year. That's obviously the negative way to view his early-season run that has delivered all five finishes in the top 20. Still, gamers have become disappointed when the American doesn't win. An under-the-radar Finau provides enticing contrarian stature this weekend at the API.

Xander Schauffele ($9,200) - Pricing looks solid across the board, meaning ownership will be the deal-breaker to solve some of these close calls. Schauffele's profile ranks second on long/challenging courses, and the fact that he doesn't rank worse than 13th in any of the seven categories I modeled should give us a steady built-in floor.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) - It is trending toward Patrick Cantlay grading as the contrarian target of the $9,000 range. If that remains the case by Wednesday afternoon, he will be in my player pool because of the weighted tee-to-green and weighted scoring that places him in the top five.

Viktor Hovland ($9,000) - While I am not sure I would grade Viktor Hovland directly above anyone we have discussed, the profile is consistent enough to warrant consideration in all game types this week. Hovland's historical performances on fast Bermuda rank him seventh in this field.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Early thoughts on the group: 

Monday Favorites - Sungjae Im ($8,900), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800), Cameron Young ($8,700), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days. (Anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). We can make changes in the Final DraftKings article to account for new information.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run. (Anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). That took away options like Charley Hoffman, who my model did like if the ownership can normalize.

We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those names.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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