DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Arnold Palmer Invitational Advice With Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood and More (2025)

Welcome everyone to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.

New starting this year -- if you would like to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Arnold Palmer

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Arnold Palmer

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
• In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
• Units: +340.903 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2025
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record:
• (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

• Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Let's Look at the Stats

Field

Field Size: 72
Cut: Top 50 & Ties (Or Within 10 Of Lead)
Top 20 Entrants: 18

Last Five Winners of Bay Hill

Expected Cut-Line at Bay Hill

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

7,466 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

You can find my premium course breakdown in my Vegas Report this week

You can find Ian McNeill's free breakdown here

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Favorite Targets Early On Monday

Justin Thomas ($9,400)

We got into an extremely similar spot in 2021 with Justin Thomas right before he took down the Players Championship in March of that season.

I understand that the version of him there didn't have this nearly three-year drought of being winless on tour. However, it was accompanied by a similar outlook in the betting market, where Thomas had drifted up to 28/1 because of what the industry deemed to be shaky form to begin the year off the tee.

One of the things I wanted to do this week was to see how he compared across all areas of the market between 2021 and 2025 when only taking data points generated within that calendar season before the event in question. I did expect it to come with less off-the-tee volatility this season since he has gained two of five times in 2025 versus losing 75% of the time in 2021, but here is where the totals landed when comparing all four main strokes gained categories.

You will notice that my belief was true in the fact that he had lost 1.11 fewer strokes off the tee this season than right before his 2021 Players win, but what intrigued me most was how similar the approach metrics were and how much better the putting has been over his first five events of this year.

Thomas' 1.8-stroke increase overall could be a strong indicator that we are close to something special over the next few weeks of the Florida swing. Will it happen here? We will see. But I wouldn't bet against it!

Russell Henley ($8,800)

What frequently happens in this space is that certain golfers (Xander, Finau, Henley) experience issues getting across the finish line and are labeled as names who can't win on tour.

There is something to be said about the constant gripes if you have a wager on them for the week, but I believe it is somewhat inconsistent for how most view the topic since being in contention frequently enhances the notion to most gamers when you see their failure occur more regularly.

I will not act as an apologist for Henley because last week's Congizant was a letdown by even his own standards when diving into the field strength. Still, data doesn't lie for DFS when it means you can zig while others zag on a golfer that most gamers have grown frustrated by over the last handful of seasons.

I am marginally afraid that DataGolf's projection for Henley will get some on him for DFS, who otherwise wouldn't have played him after all the mishaps, but my math continues to love his overall profile and fit as a top-12 player in the world. 

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100)

It is an ideal course fit for Tommy Fleetwood, who enters the week trending after a fifth-place result during his last start.

My model projected the Englishman 27 spots better than his baseline expectation at Bay Hill with his irons, 13 places better off the tee, 17 spots better around the green and 26 spots higher with the putter.

That profile shows why Fleetwood landed as a top-five golfer in my model for both 'Win Profile' and 'Floor' output projections.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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