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The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings in Week 16. Ben Rolfe's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Two Saturday games on top of the usual prime time games has really left this slate a little devoid of options. However, more significantly is the loss of the Chiefs, Rams, Chargers and Saints to prime time slots on Thursday, Sunday and Monday.
That has left us looking more for defenses to pick against this week than looking at explosive offenses. Some prime examples are the Falcons and Bengals who have struggled to stop teams at all this year and have looked pretty ugly on defense. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for Week 16.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, performances so far, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 16. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 16 Picks
Matt Ryan - ATL @ CAR (DK $6,100)
Ryan has sneakily been pretty good this year and despite this game being on the road I think he can have success. The Panthers defensive numbers have not been that bad at home this season but this week they are coming off a short week, in a game they gave everything to and lost. Cam Newton is essentially done for the season and that could have an effect in a number of ways. Firstly, as bad as the Falcons defense has been at times they should be able to shut down Taylor Heinicke for the majority of the game, meaning the Falcons offense should see plenty of the ball. Secondly, I worry that Newton sitting sends a message to this team that the season is over, and a tired defense getting negative signals from their coaching staff could lead to a flat performance and flat atmosphere in Carolina.
If you want to get really funky this week then you could gamble on Heinicke at $4,000 on DK. The Falcons defense has had trouble this year and if Heinicke gives you anything close to average at that price you could have had a loaded team elsewhere.
Josh Allen - BUF @ NE (DK $5,800)
Allen could be a fun play this week. Rookie quarterbacks do not generally have great amounts of success against the Patriots but there are some factors that interest me. Allen is on a hot streak lately and has scored over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings three of the last four weeks. In addition, the Patriots have had trouble with quarterbacks who can use their legs. Blake Bortles had 36 fantasy points against them in Week 2 and both Mitchell Trubisky and Marcus Mariota had success as well. The Patriots have a sluggish defense and Allen should be able to find plenty of space against them this week.
Sam Darnold - NYJ vs. GB (DK $4,900)
This is an option if you want to get a little bit creative this week. Darnold looked healthy for the first time in a while last week and his stats reflected that. The rookie quarterback had 21.68 fantasy points on DraftKings, his highest total of the season. He seems to finally have a connection going with Robbie Anderson and he just looked more comfortable, even against a very good defense. This week he faces a Packers defense allowing 20% more points to opposing quarterbacks than the league average over the last five weeks. In addition, Green Bay have allowed quarterbacks to average 19.9 fantasy points in their road games so far.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 16 Picks
Ezekiel Elliott - DAL vs. TB (DK $9,000)
Of the top three options this week Elliott actually feels like the safest. There are so many question marks surrounding both Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey that I am a little afraid to gamble on either of them. However, Elliott has little question marks and he has a nice matchup to boot. Over the last five weeks, the Buccaneers are allowing 31% more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the NFL average. In addition, they have been allowing an average of 24.3 fantasy points to opposing #1 backs when playing on the road this season.
Nick Chubb - CLE vs. CIN (DK $7,300)
Chubb had a tough week in Denver last Saturday but this game against the Bengals should be much nicer for him. The Bengals defense has had a lot of issues this season, especially when it comes to making tackles. Over the last five weeks, they have been allowing nearly 25% more points to opposing running backs than the league average. Over the course of the season, they have allowed 19.2 fantasy points to opposing #1 running backs meaning Chubb could be in line for a good week.
The Bengals have been allowing 29.9 fantasy points overall to the running back position on the road this season. Therefore, if you are looking for a bargain basement play this week, you might want to consider Duke Johnson at a price of $3,800 on DraftKings.
Lamar Miller - HOU @ PHI (DK $5,000)
Miller is coming off the back of a couple of tough weeks but he is only four weeks removed from a 162-yard game and he has scored two touchdowns in the last four weeks. Additionally, over the last five weeks, the Eagles defense has allowed a whopping 41% more points to running backs than the league average. Realistically, on the road, the Texans need to get the run game going and I think we see them lean heavily on it this week, which could lead to a big week for Miller.
Miller has been banged up lately and if he does look likely to miss this game then Alfred Blue at a price of $4,500 on DraftKings could be a really interesting play.
John Kelly - LAR @ ARI (DK $4,000)
This one is a real gamble and it will depend on the news later in the week. If Gurley is out then Kelly is the healthiest running back who knows the playbook well available on the Rams roster. There are other names in the mix which might cause concern but with a juicy matchup, this play is tempting in GPP formats. Over the last five week,s the Cardinals are allowing 26% fantasy points above the average against opposing running backs and were ripped apart by Tevin Coleman last week in Atlanta.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 16 Picks
Julio Jones - ATL @ CAR (DK $8,700)
This has almost become an automatic pick for me this season and I am not veering away from it now. There are a number of aspect in play here that make Jones an interesting play despite being the highest priced pass catcher. Firstly, there is a chance that Jones will have contract talks this summer and I believe Ryan also wants to help him get paid so may force the ball his way a little down the stretch. Secondly, I think there is a chance Dan Quinn's job is still in the air a little and he needs his star receiver to feature strongly down the stretch. Thirdly, Jones has over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings in all but four weeks this season. Finally, the Panthers are allowing 24% more points to opposing receivers over the last few weeks, and that is great news for Jones in a game I can see the Falcons scoring plenty of points in.
Jones has had some niggles recently and if he is sat down for this week then there are two potential options. To match his price I would lean on DeAndre Hopkins against the Eagles at $8,600, and if I wanted a receiver from the Falcons I would be tempted by Calvin Ridley at $5,100 with the chance to be the leading receiver for the first time in his NFL career.
Davante Adams - GB @ NYJ (DK $8,500)
I was wavering with the news that Aaron Rodgers may not play in Week 16. However, it seems likely that he will and therefore I would be very tempted by Adams. Adams has been one of the most consistent players in fantasy this season, despite the Packers troubles, and now he gets a juicy matchups in this game. The Jets are allowing a huge 45% more points to opposing receivers than the league average in the last five weeks. They also allow nearly 20 fantasy points per game to opposing number one wide receivers. It feels like there is a good chance this could be a high scoring game and I might find myself playing pass catchers on both sides.
Robby Anderson - NYJ vs. GB (DK $4,500)
In fact here is a pass catcher on the other side who is a very tempting play this week. There appears to be a real connection developed between Anderson and Darnold recently and it has shown up big time in the last two games. I do not see why that stops this week, facing a team allowing 15% more points than league average to opposing wide receivers in the last five games. I think there is a real chance that this game goes over the over/under line of 46.5 and maybe even into the low- to mid-50s, in what could be a shootout style game in the fourth quarter.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 16 Picks
David Njoku - CLE vs. CIN (DK $3,900)
Tight end is a pretty ravaged landscape this week for the main slate on Sunday. A number of top tight end targets are missing from the slate due to their game times. In addition, question marks of Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski have us looking deeper this week. The Bengals have been one of the worst teams against the tight end, who are playing on this slate, allowing 18% more points than the league average in the last five weeks. Njoku's value has been up and down but I am hoping he can find the end zone this week.
Austin Hooper - ATL @ CAR (DK $3,700)
Hooper is coming off a terrible week but it was a tough matchup and he has had struggles in those tough matchups before. However, he has also had nice performances this season against teams who struggle with the tight end. That is exactly the case for the Panthers who have allowed an average of 10.1 fantasy points to opposing #1 tight ends this season. Nothing is ever a guarantee when it comes to the tight end position, but what should be important is that the Falcons are likely to play hard in the last couple of weeks, against division opponents, to make sure they end the season with a bang.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 16 Picks
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco (DK $3,500)
I always look to try and save a few hundred dollars here but I do not see a team with better potential for turnovers. There are a number of teams who I expect to play stout defense, Miami and Detroit for example, but I do not trust them to get turnovers. Therefore, I am going to look to the Bears, who nearly always force turnovers, against an offense which has been extremely turnover prone. I could potentially see a defensive score or two coming in this game...
