College Football Betting Expert Picks for January 1 Bowl Games

December 29, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for January 1 Bowl games and the College Football Playoff. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

The 2020 College Football season, which has been filled with cancellations, last-minute scheduling changes, and a host of odd quirks, is finally nearing a close. Despite a near consensus of media doubting the possibility of the season, including the Big Ten leading the charge against playing in the fall, the season did happen, with much of the credit due to the SEC and ACC for their steadfast determination to play, and to Notre Dame for joining the ACC for a season and being a vocal advocate for the benefits of playing a fall season.

The Week Sixteen games, which marked the conference championships, were our first losing week of the year. The Coastal Carolina-Louisiana-Lafayette game that was to decide the Sun Belt Conference champion was cancelled due to COVID-19. In the Pac-12 Championship, Oregon upset USC to take home the crown. And in the ACC, Clemson returned to the top of the ACC winning their sixth consecutive conference championship in a drubbing of Notre Dame. The 0-2 week brought our season-long record down to 30-15.

Thank you for taking part in the ride this season. Here are my final college football betting picks for the 2020 season.

The College Football Playoff Semifinal #1 - Friday, January 1, 2020 - 4:00pm ET

Notre Dame vs. Alabama (-20)

O/U: 66.5

The 2020 season has been a great success for the Fighting Irish, as Coach Brian Kelly has Notre Dame in their second College Football Playoff (CFP) in the past three seasons. Brian Kelly's performance in "big-time playoff games" is well-documented. In the 2012 season, the Irish got steamrolled by Alabama 42-14 in the BCS Championship game, lost 44-28 to Ohio State in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, and were waxed by a 30-3 score in the 2018 CFP semifinal by Clemson. This year's team is heavily reliant on its strong rushing attack and getting ahead early in games. Armed with a regular season victory over Clemson, Notre Dame afforded the 24-point ACC Championship game loss to sneak into the final playoff spot. Quarterback Ian Book ranks second in all-time passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completions behind former first-round draft pick Brady Quinn. A lot of Book's improvising on the fly in the passing game is made possible by arguably America's best offensive line. Future NFL players at tackle (Liam Eichenberg and Robert Hainsey), guard (Tommy Kraemer and Aaron Banks) and center (Jarrett Patterson) allow Book to have much more time than the average quarterback to make his decisions. Freshman tight end Michael Mayer is a name to remember, as he has 35 catches and 2 touchdowns as a true freshman and gives Book with a huge red-zone target. The defense, led by future Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea, is anchored by their two All-ACC first team representatives - linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and safety Kyle Hamilton.

The 2020 season has been historic of Coach Nick Saban's Crimson Tide. Alabama became the second team ever (after Army in 1946) to have three of the top five Heisman vote-getters on the same team. Quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver Devonta Smith have had incredible seasons on their way to invitations to the virtual ceremony in New York City, while running back Najee Harris finished fifth in the voting. The Crimson Tide offense, which is second in the country scoring 49.7 points per game, is also hoping to have wide receiver and big play threat Jaylen Waddle back from injury. In Waddle's absence this season, sophomore receiver John Metchie and the tight end duo of Miller Forristall and Jahleel Billingsley have emerged as consistent and reliable playmakers. The defense, which ranks 17th in the nation in scoring defense with 19.5 points allowed per game, is about as close to a "weakness" as it gets for this Alabama squad. The Crimson Tide rolled to an 11-0 record, with double-digit wins in every game outside of the 6-point SEC Conference Championship win over Florida.

On paper, Alabama's vaunted offense and stout defense clearly outpace their opponents and it will be an uphill battle for Notre Dame. However, Coach Brian Kelly has arguably his strongest team during his 11 years in South Bend. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 5-to-2, and will just need to keep this game within three scores to cover the big spread. The key to covering will be for the Irish defense to keep the big plays to a minimum. Jaylen Waddle (4), Devonta Smith (1) and John Metchie (1) have combined for 6 total touchdowns of 75-yards or more and are a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Pick: Notre Dame +20

The College Football Playoff Semifinal #2 - Friday, January 1, 2020 - 8:30pm ET

Ohio State at Clemson (-7)

O/U: 67

Despite playing only six games this season, the Ohio State Buckeyes were awarded one of the four coveted spots in the CFP. Coach Ryan Day's team didn't have a great strength of schedule (67th of 127 FBS teams who played games this fall), and had trouble putting away both Indiana and Northwestern in their two "signature" wins. For the majority of the year, the offense hummed at a prolific pace, ending the abbreviated year with a 42.5 points per game average. Quarterback Justin Fields looked like a top-5 NFL draft pick on some plays, but looked like a hapless journeyman who has no business being considered in the same class as Trevor Lawrence on other plays. Against Indiana and Northwestern, the only two teams on the Buckeyes' schedule who finished .500 or better, Fields threw all five of his interceptions on the season. It would be remiss to not offer proper praise to the Buckeyes' rushing attack, helmed by Fields, Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon, and Master Teague. Sermon ran for 331 yards in the Big Ten Championship against Northwestern, behind future NFL linemen Wyatt Davis, Thayer Munford and Josh Myers, but the Buckeyes still could not pull away until there were four minutes left in the game. The Buckeyes should get a boost with starting wide receiver Chris Olave returning from injury.

The Clemson Tigers are in familiar territory, their fifth CFP appearance in the past six seasons. Coach Dabo Swinney has faced off against Ohio State three times in the CFP since 2016 - winning all three games. Heisman trophy finalist quarterback Trevor Lawrence is hoping to win his second national championship before he begins shopping for apartments in Jacksonville, Florida. The defense stiffened in the ACC Championship win over Notre Dame, with a young and talented defensive line leading the way. The Tigers' starting defensive line consists of sophomores Tyler Davis and KJ Henry, and true freshmen Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee. In the secondary, cornerbacks Derion Kendrick and Andrew Booth look like the latest in a long line of Clemson defensive backs who have gone on to NFL careers, such as Falcons' 2019 first-round pick AJ Terrell.

With a win on Friday, Dabo Swinney would tie the icon Bobby Bowden for the most postseason victories as a Clemson coach. If this year's game is anything like last season's Fiesta Bowl semifinal, fans are in for a treat. In the 2019 rendition of this game, Trevor Lawrence led Clemson down the field connecting with running back Travis Etienne, the ACC-record holder in career touchdowns with a 21-touchdown lead on Steelers' running back James Conner, with less than two minutes to win the game 29-23, a game that the Tigers trailed by 16 at one point.

Pick: Clemson -7

The Orange Bowl - Saturday, January 2, 2020 - 8:00pm ET

North Carolina vs. Texas A&M (-7.5)

O/U: 65.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been dealt a difficult hand with four key starters - wide receiver Dyami Brown, linebacker Chazz Surratt, and running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter - opting out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Coach Mack Brown's rapid rebuilding project in Chapel Hill has been incredible, with an 8-3 finish and the 6th highest scoring offense in the country (43.0 points per game). True sophomore quarterback Sam Howell has thrown for 65 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his brief time in Chapel Hill and should be atop most Heisman frontrunner lists in 2021. For Howell in the Orange Bowl, he will need to break in sophomore running back Josh Henderson and junior British Brooks to replace the dynamic duo of Williams and Carter. In the passing game, losing Dyami Brown (1,099 yards and 8 touchdowns) will require Brown's younger brother and teammate Khafre Brown, and fellow youngster Emery Simmons, to step into the void alongside Dazz Newsome. The Heels' "Achilles' heel" is likely its defense, which will be hurt badly by Surratt's absence (91 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 6 sacks). Expecting North Carolina to outperform their season average (28.4 points allowed per game) is unrealistic without their defensive captain.

Coach Jimbo Fisher's 8-1 Texas A&M Aggies are the first SEC team in the CFP era to miss the CFP with only one loss. The Aggies don't have a prolific offense, ranking 41st in scoring offense (31.7 points per game) and their defense is a solid "bend but don't break" bunch (21.1 points per game, good for 27th in the country). Their undoing was likely an unconvincing season-opening 5-point win over winless Vanderbilt. Quarterback Kellen Mond is a fourth-year starting quarterback in the midst of his most efficient season (19 touchdowns, 3 interceptions). Mond's utilized his tight end Jalen Wydermyer to great lengths to the tune of 45 catches, 502 yards and 6 touchdowns. Do-it-all swiss-army knife Ainias Smith is a dangerous threat who averages nearly 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch and has a combined ten touchdowns through the air and on the ground. As of the time of this article, there were no significant Texas A&M opt-outs to note.

The four big opt-outs are of great concern to North Carolina fans. However, Texas A&M's peripherals indicate a team that seemed to always find its way to the win column but in unimpressive fashion. With young phenom Sam Howell slinging the pigskin for the Tar Heels, their floor on offense should still be very high even without the running backs and Dyami Brown. Mixing Howell with a defense without their heart and soul (Surratt), this game may shape up as a quick shootout.

Pick: Over 65.5 

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