Eliminating Park Factors: Hitters That Will Suffer Most

While optimism continues to grow surrounding the likelihood we will have baseball in 2020, there are still a few hurdles to clear, and plenty of unknowns regarding the parameters. While the universal DH seems like a near-certainty at this point, other important factors- like how many games will be played and where they will take […]

Overvalued and Undervalued Starting Pitchers

Spring training is often the time when players start climbing up or freefalling down draft boards. This year, however, without a full spring training to draw from, there is less talk of a pitcher with a new and improved change-up, and fewer managers blowing smoke, influencing fantasy owners. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of value […]

ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Overachievers With SIERA (Part 2)

Welcome back RotoBallers to my Lie Detector mini-series (you can read part one here). Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin […]

WPC+ Videocast: SIERA Overachievers and SP Busts

Pierre Camus (@Roto_Chef) and Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds) discuss how to use SIERA when evaluating starting pitchers and review SP who overachieved on their ERA in 2019. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Bo Bichette

It's easy to joke that the 2020 Toronto Blue Jays will have the last names of a 1990's All-Star team, but the kids have a realistic shot at surpassing their fathers. This author isn't as high on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as most, but Cavan Biggio looks like an advanced hitter with the potential to blend […]

Mock Draft Review: ADP Risers and Fallers

It's Memorial Day weekend, which means it's time to pick some flowers, fire up the BBQ, and do fantasy baseball mock drafts. Well, one of those things doesn't quite belong, but in these uncertain times, it's never a bad idea to do another draft and see how things stand. With MLB owners and the Player's […]

ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Overachievers With SIERA (Part 1)

Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA, albeit in a different manner. Although technically a backward-looking evaluator,  SIERA […]

Third Basemen Likely to Return a Loss in 2020

So far we've covered some possible players to avoid at both 1B and 2B, so now we'll finish up by looking at 3B. Just as a refresher, my goal is these articles is to point out players who I believe won't match the value necessary for their current ADP. We frequently want to label these players […]

Starting Pitchers Who Could Bust Your Season

Every season there are countless players who do not live up to expectations. This doesn’t necessarily mean that they had a bad season or that they were not an asset to their fantasy team. Simply, it means that they did not return the expected value based on how high they were drafted. For example, J.D. […]

WPC+ Videocast: Park Factor Fallers

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut discuss how ballpark factors going away could affect fantasy baseball values for starting pitchers. Which SP could be fallers in 2020? Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune […]

Outfielder Busts Who’ll Keep Junking It Up In 2020

The term “bust” in fantasy baseball has a number of different incarnations. In some instances, a bust is someone who adds no value to a roster whatsoever. He does nothing more than take up a roster spot, adds little-to-no counting stats, and hurts ratios such as batting average and on-base percentage. He is a net-negative […]

Starting Pitcher Breakouts Due For Negative Regression

As a fantasy baseball manager, there is nothing better than catching a player in their breakout season. Not a lot of people talk about the downside to owning a breakout player, though. We are all humans and a lot of us get attached to these players. That could certainly cloud your judgment because as we all […]

ADP Comparison: Biggest Fallers from March to May

MLB first announced that its season would be postponed on March 12. Over the past month or so, a plan to resume games has taken several forms, but nothing is set in stone yet. For now, it appears as though teams will play in a maximum of 100 games in 2020, with the minor league […]

Eliminating Park Factors: Which Pitchers Will Suffer the Most

After weeks of half-baked proposals cribbed from rejected "BioDome" scripts, there now seems to be a scrape of light at the end of the no-baseball tunnel. MLB seems to be increasingly confident that a 2020 season will be played, whether it's playing all games in one location (the Arizona plan), playing in multiple warm-weather hubs (Arizona, […]

Third Base ADP Reflections

Third base is arguably the deepest position in fantasy this year, with plenty of highly productive options outside of the first 20 third basemen being drafted. The position is so deep that if a player isn’t a lock for an OPS above .900, doesn’t have positional versatility, or doesn’t offer stolen bases, then they may […]

Using xPA to Evaluate Lineup Movers: Victor Robles

We don't need to talk about how much a player's lineup spot matters. The higher you are, the more times a game you'll bat. Plus, you'll almost necessarily be surrounded by better players. That simply means more opportunities to pile up fantasy stats. Consider Ronald Acuna Jr., who was on pace for 658 plate appearances […]

WPC+ Videocast: Using xPA to Find Value

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut evaluate xPA (expected plate appearances) to determine how much lineup spot and team context matters for fantasy baseball. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Gleyber Torres

When people think of Gleyber Torres, the first thing that springs to mind is the fact that he completely obliterated the Baltimore Orioles in 2019 to the tune of .394/.467/1.045 with 13 HR. His supporters claim that the Orioles are still terrible, so Torres will be able to fatten up his stat line again. His […]

WPC+ Videocast: Finding xOPS Underachievers and Overachievers

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut use Statcast to find the top underachievers and overachievers for xOPS (expected on-base plus slugging). These players could be fantasy baseball draft sleepers or busts based on ADP. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio […]

Introducing xPA to Project Plate Appearances

I like big rates and I cannot lie. You other readers can't deny. When a rate walks in with an itty PA and an integer in my face, I get sprung...Whoa! Wait just one second, Sir-Mix-A-Nick. Before I go full-Rhymenoceros on everyone, maybe we oughta back the track up a little bit. What I like […]

Three Shortstops Set To Bust In 2020

Shortstop is a fairly deep fantasy position, with fifteen shortstops going before the 150th pick on average and plenty of value to be found even later in drafts. The top-end of the shortstop group is particularly strong, with three shortstops owning top-10 ADPs. No other infield position group has had as many different players drafted […]

Electronic Strike Zone: Who Benefits and Who Doesn't

Among the more high-profile MLB rule changes expected to take effect over the next few years is the usage of an electronic strike zone. The electronic strike zone was used in the Atlantic League in 2019, and the MLB Umpires Association has cleared the way for its introduction to the major leagues at some point […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Pete Alonso

Peter Alonso was a hyped name heading into the 2019 MLB season. FanGraphs was optimistic, giving him a perfect 80 grade on raw power along with a 70 future grade for game power. He was ranked as the top first-base prospect (and 51st overall) by MLB Pipeline, with scouts noting an advanced ability to access his […]

Second Basemen Likely to Return a Loss in 2020

As mentioned in my article covering 1B that we might be over-drafting, my goal in these articles is to point out players who might "bust" at their current ADP. The definition of a bust that I'm using is when you invest a large amount of draft capital in a player who doesn't hit the production […]

OPS Overachievers: Using xOPS to Judge Performance

We've already dug into xOPS by looking at the biggest underachievers from last year. Now, it's time to examine the other side of the coin - the less shiny side. Many might believe that wOBA is the stat you should be looking for and people much smarter than I have been duking out this debate […]

Fantasy Baseball ADP Reflections - Relief Pitchers

We’re still awaiting concrete news on how a 2020 baseball season will look like (if it does exist). Different possibilities have surfaced in recent days which includes an option of multiple doubleheaders being played every week. It’s still far too early to tell how serious or plausible this is but should it come to fruition, […]

Sizing Up The New York Mets Rotation

Even before New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, the Mets were looking at fielding a much different starting rotation in 2020. Zack Wheeler departed for the Phillies as a free agent in the off-season. The Mets brought Marcus Stroman in from the Blue Jays […]

Man vs. Machine: Nick Mariano and ATC's Over/Undervalued Players

Welcome to Round 2 of Man vs. Machine, where one fantasy analyst goes toe-to-toe with one projection system for ranking supremacy. We here at RotoBaller are fortunate enough to have FantasyPros’ Most Accurate Fantasy Baseball Draft Ranker from both 2018 and 2019 on our roster in Nick Mariano and Ariel Cohen, respectively. Ariel also created […]

First Basemen Likely to Return A Loss in 2020

We all dream of drafting the sleeper pick who vastly outproduce his draft-day value and carries our team to victory. However, the truth is that those types of selections are few and far between. Often a player will give you more value than you would normally expect from his draft slot, but it's likely only […]