X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Gleyber Torres

When people think of Gleyber Torres, the first thing that springs to mind is the fact that he completely obliterated the Baltimore Orioles in 2019 to the tune of .394/.467/1.045 with 13 HR. His supporters claim that the Orioles are still terrible, so Torres will be able to fatten up his stat line again. His detractors argue that performing that well against a single team is a fluke and shouldn't be expected regardless of how terrible the Orioles may be. In truth, we should be analyzing Torres's performance, not the Orioles, in predicting his 2020 fantasy value.

Torres has about as much prospect pedigree as an owner could hope for, ranking as baseball's second-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline before 2018. He lost out to Shohei Ohtani, a player who already had a successful professional career in Japan at that point. The 23-year-old also has two strong big league seasons under his belt, first slashing .271/.340/.480 with 24 HR in 484 PAs in 2018 and then hitting .278/.337/.535 with 38 big flies in 2019.

Fantasy owners are expecting big things if his 29.4 ADP is any indication. Torres is definitely a good player, but can he live up to being a top-30 fantasy asset?

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Gleyber Days on the Farm

It's tempting to look at any 23-year-old's MiLB performance to try and substantiate his big league numbers, but it doesn't work in the case of Torres. The Yankees promoted him aggressively after acquiring him from the Cubs, giving him 139 PAs at Double-A (Trenton) and 152 PAs split between two seasons at Triple-A (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre). That's not much of a sample size to work with.

Furthermore, his MiLB stat lines bear little resemblance to the player he's been in the Bronx. Torres hit .273/.367/.496 with five homers and five steals in 139 PAs at Double-A (Trenton), walking nearly as often as he struck out in the process. He hit .309/.406/.457 with two homers and two steals in 96 PAs at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre that season, but a sliding injury cut his season short. He briefly returned to Triple-A in 2018, hitting .347/.393/.510 with a homer and a steal in 56 PAs, but was soon summoned to the Show. There's little evidence for the power hitter Torres has become in these numbers.

 

Digging Deeper into Torres' Pop

With little MiLB data to work with, we'll have to use Statcast to try to estimate Torres's true talent. Torres posted an impressive 17.9% HR/FB in 2018 and improved it to 21.5% last season, but his Statcast power indicators weren't as strong in either campaign. His 91.2 mph average airborne exit velocity in 2018 was a smidgeon below-average that season, while an increase to 92.8 mph last season was only barely above. His overall exit velocity totals of 88.7 mph (2018) and 89 mph (2019) tell a similar story.

Likewise, both his 9.2% rate of Brls/BBE in 2018 and his 10.1% mark a season ago were more good than great. If you prefer Brls per plate appearance instead of batted ball event, Torres's 6% rate in 2018 was only average while his 7.1% rate in 2019 was above-average but not elite. Here are all of the players who finished with the same Brls/PA mark in 2019:

Muncy's a nice guy to see, but the rest of them are a little worrying to see for a guy taken inside the top-30.

Of course, this doesn't mean that Torres will suddenly turn pumpkin and give his owners nothing. Torres plays in a very hitter-friendly park, hits a lot of fly balls (41.9 FB% last season), and pulled a whopping 27.7% of his flies last season. The combination makes him what this author likes to call a compiler: a guy who only has league-average oomph but hits 25-30 HR anyway due to his sheer volume of fly balls.

Torres was also buried in a deep Yankees lineup last season, finishing with only 96 runs and 90 RBI despite nearly hitting 40 bombs. Roster Resource currently projects Torres to hit third in 2020, a slot that would likely allow him to pace for more R+RBI even if his HR totals decline. In short, Torres is likely to continue to produce homers for fantasy owners moving forward, but is unlikely to approach a 40 HR pace again.

 

Does Torres Bring Anything Else to the Table?

Much analysis about Torres talks about batting average or stolen base upside to go with his homer totals, but this author doesn't really see either. Some analysts see upside in Torres's .296 BABIP last year considering his .321 mark in 2018, but the latter mark was predicated on a 24.5 LD% that likely won't repeat. For reference, it was a league-average 20.9% last year. All of the fly balls that are good for his power numbers are bad for his average, and his 8.5 IFFB% suggests that he may have a little bit of a pop-up problem to sort out if he wants to be a batting average asset.

Similarly, Torres's 21.4 K% looks solid until you consider the 13.2 SwStr% and 35.1% chase rate that accompanied it last year. He struck out 25.2% of the time in 2018 with similar underlying metrics (34.4% chase, 14 SwStr%), and a rate between his 2018 and 2019 figures is likely the best projection for 2020. Notably, Baseball Savant's xBA suggests that Torres deserved to hit .262 last season and .257 the season before, so there is at least as much batting average downside as upside in his profile.

Quite frankly, this author has no idea why some owners see SB potential in Torres. He was never a huge base thief on the farm, and his Statcast Sprint Speed declined from 27.1 ft./sec in 2018 to just 26.5 ft./sec last season. That's below the MLB average! Considering his move to the heart of the Yankees order rather than the periphery of it, it wouldn't be surprising if manager Aaron Boone gave him a red light when the likes of Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton are up, either.

 

Conclusion

Torres looks like a good bet to reach 25-30 HR with a batting average that won't hurt you in 2020, and his prime slot in one of MLB's best lineups should help him punch above his weight in R+RBI. That's a valuable fantasy asset, but he may not justify his current draft day cost without repeating last year's homer totals or adding average and/or steals to his line. Considering where he is going in drafts, you might be better off taking Pete Alonso (26.2 ADP) if you want a 40-HR pace or Jose Altuve (31.8) if you want a middle infielder who contributes across the board.

Verdict: Chump (based on high draft day cost and subpar Statcast metrics)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Hunter Renfroe4 mins ago

Getting A Rest Sunday
Kyle Tucker18 mins ago

Not Playing Sunday
Dinelson Lamet24 mins ago

Likely Starting Wednesday
Max Muncy44 mins ago

Left Early With A Hamstring Cramp
Jeff McNeil53 mins ago

Not In The Lineup On Sunday Against Colorado
Jesse Winker58 mins ago

Scratched With Neck Discomfort
Juan Soto1 hour ago

Scratched With Back Tightness On Sunday
Kyle Tucker1 hour ago

Scratched From Sunday's Lineup
Matt Moore1 hour ago

Lands On The 15-Day Injured List
Brenton Doyle1 hour ago

Still Absent From The Lineup On Sunday
Esteury Ruiz2 hours ago

Sitting Out On Sunday
New York Jets2 hours ago

Quinnen Williams, Jets May Be Nearing A Deal
Josh Donaldson2 hours ago

Could See Another Rehab Game On Tuesday
Anthony Santander2 hours ago

Back In The Lineup On Sunday
Jimmy Garoppolo2 hours ago

Contract Has Waiver Included
Max Muncy2 hours ago

Leaves Game Early Sunday
Jose Trevino2 hours ago

Could Return Tuesday
Giancarlo Stanton2 hours ago

Could Begin Rehab Assignment Tuesday
Xander Bogaerts2 hours ago

Back In Sunday's Lineup
Carlos Rodón2 hours ago

Carlos Rodon To Throw Bullpen On Monday
Casey Schmitt3 hours ago

Out Against Brewers
Eloy Jiménez3 hours ago

White Sox Reinstate Eloy Jimenez From Injured List
Josh Fleming3 hours ago

Starting Against Dodgers Sunday
Jonathan Marchessault3 hours ago

Posts Two Assists Saturday Night
Thomas Harley3 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Game 6 Win
Ty Dellandrea4 hours ago

Keeps Dallas Alive With Late Goals
Duncan Robinson4 hours ago

Has 13 Points In Game 6 Against Boston
Max Strus4 hours ago

Scores 10 Points In Game 6 Loss
Chase Elliott4 hours ago

Believes He’s Got A Good Shot To Win Coca-Cola 600
Alex Bowman4 hours ago

Facing Uphill Battle In Coca-Cola 600 Return
Ryan Preece4 hours ago

Hopeful To Start Putting Pieces Together For Good Runs
Gabe Vincent4 hours ago

Returns With 15 Points
Bam Adebayo4 hours ago

Posts Sixth Postseason Double-Double
Corey Lajoie4 hours ago

Looking To Continue Career-Best Season At Charlotte
NASCAR4 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Hoping For First-Ever Top 10 Finish At Charlotte
Caleb Martin4 hours ago

Produces Impressive Double-Double In Game 6
AJ Allmendinger5 hours ago

A DFS Sleeper Pick For The Coca-Cola 600
Jimmie Johnson5 hours ago

Doesn't Feel Prepared For Coca-Cola 600
Jimmy Butler5 hours ago

Flirts With Triple-Double Saturday
Zane Smith5 hours ago

Hoping To Learn & Get Better At Charlotte
Todd Gilliland5 hours ago

Facing Significant Equipment Downgrade At Charlotte
John Collins13 hours ago

Still Available
Marcus Smart13 hours ago

Has Solid Showing In Game 6
Jaylen Brown13 hours ago

Has 26 Points In Win Over Miami
Robert Williams13 hours ago

III Finishes With 10 Points Saturday
Derrick White13 hours ago

Forces A Game 7
Jayson Tatum13 hours ago

Scores 31 Points In Game 6
DeAndre Hopkins17 hours ago

Bills, Chiefs Had "Substantive" Talks About Trading For DeAndre Hopkins
Travis Etienne Jr.17 hours ago

Working On "Fine-Tuning" Skills
Arizona Cardinals17 hours ago

Budda Baker Will Be At Training Camp
Austin Dillon18 hours ago

Could Be Place Differential King At Charlotte
Erik Jones18 hours ago

Could Be Good Early At Charlotte
Daniel Suarez18 hours ago

Has Upside At Coca-Cola 600
Aric Almirola18 hours ago

Stuck In Middle Of The Pack For Charlotte
Chase Briscoe18 hours ago

Tries To Turn Back Clock At Charlotte
Ty Gibbs19 hours ago

Could Provide DFS Value At Charlotte
Joey Logano19 hours ago

Tries To Bounce Back From Charlotte Mishap
Martin Truex Jr19 hours ago

. Wants To Turn Back Clock At Charlotte
Justin Haley19 hours ago

Might Have Challenge At Charlotte
Tyler Reddick19 hours ago

Aims To Move Up At Charlotte
Ross Chastain21 hours ago

Looking For A Win At Charlotte
Harrison Burton21 hours ago

On The Hot Seat For Results
Jerome Kapp1 day ago

Jets Sign Jerome Kapp
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Dre Greenlaw Recovering From Finger Surgery
Chris Moore1 day ago

Willing To Play Any Role
Gary Brightwell1 day ago

Could Be Buried On Depth Chart
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Terence Steele Limited At OTAs
Marquise Brown1 day ago

Becomes Cardinals' No. 1 Receiver
Deshaun Watson1 day ago

Jordan Akins Eager To Work With Deshaun Watson Again
Deshaun Watson1 day ago

Elijah Moore Building Chemistry With Deshaun Watson
Gabe Vincent2 days ago

Questionable On Saturday
Tyler Herro2 days ago

Remains Out For Game 6
Bam Adebayo2 days ago

Good To Go For Game 6
Malcolm Brogdon2 days ago

Questionable For Game 6
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

Bills "Lurking" As A Favorite To Land DeAndre Hopkins
Davante Adams2 days ago

Josh McDaniels Has No Issues With Davante Adams Venting
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2 days ago

Bucs Expect Devin White At Minicamp
Darren Waller2 days ago

Enjoying Time In New York
Dalvin Cook2 days ago

Now Considering A Pay Cut?
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

Chiefs A Potential Landing Spot For DeAndre Hopkins?
Detroit Pistons2 days ago

Detroit Brings Kevin Ollie And Charles Lee In For Second Interviews
Atlanta Hawks2 days ago

Hawks Hire Igor Kokoskov As Lead Assistant Coach
Joel Embiid2 days ago

Still Considered Untouchable
D'Angelo Russell2 days ago

Lakers Won't Pursue The Max For D'Angelo Russell
Fred VanVleet2 days ago

Raptors Unsure If They Want To Re-Sign Fred VanVleet
Tyler Allgeier2 days ago

Not Concerned About Usage
Hendon Hooker2 days ago

Preparing Himself Mentally
Jack Eichel2 days ago

Keeps The Assists Coming
William Karlsson2 days ago

Matches Vegas Record With Eighth Postseason Goal
Miro Heiskanen2 days ago

Delivers Two Power-Play Assists
Jason Robertson3 days ago

Scores Two Goals In Game 4 Victory
Joe Pavelski3 days ago

Scores Overtime Winner In Game 4
Jake Oettinger3 days ago

The Confirmed Starter For Game 4
Evgenii Dadonov3 days ago

Will Be Out Of The Lineup For Dallas
Adin Hill3 days ago

Will Mind The Vegas Crease In Game 4
Jamie Benn3 days ago

Suspended For Two Games
Sergei Bobrovsky3 days ago

Remains Sharp In Series-Clincher
Aleksander Barkov3 days ago

Hands Out Two Assists In Game 4 Victory
Matthew Tkachuk4 days ago

Late Goal Sends Panthers To Stanley Cup Final
Michael Block4 days ago

A Fade At Charles Schwab
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Looks To Regain Form
Viktor Hovland4 days ago

Teeing It Up After Close Call At PGA Championship
PGA4 days ago

J.T. Poston Tough To Include In Fantasy Lineups
Beau Hossler4 days ago

Worth Fantasy Consideration Heading To Colonial
Billy Horschel4 days ago

Inconsistency Makes Him A Tough Choice
Ryan Fox4 days ago

An Intriguing Pick For Fantasy Lineups
Alex Smalley4 days ago

A Risky Option For Fantasy Lineups
Christiaan Bezuidenhout4 days ago

To Bounce Back After Missed Cut
Brendon Todd4 days ago

A Risky Fantasy Play At Colonial
PGA4 days ago

Byeong Hun An's Impressive Play Makes Him Strong Fantasy Option
PGA4 days ago

K.H. Lee Looks To Continue Playing Well
Tom Hoge4 days ago

A Viable Fantasy Option At Colonial
PGA4 days ago

Cameron Davis Playing Well Heading To Colonial
Max Homa4 days ago

A Reliable Fantasy Option At Colonial
Will Gordon4 days ago

A Solid Option In Texas
Cameron Champ4 days ago

Worth A Look At Colonial
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

A Solid Sleeper At Colonial
Sam Stevens4 days ago

Worth A Shot At Charles Schwab
Ryan Palmer4 days ago

Is It Safe To Start Ryan Palmer In Texas?
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

In A Major Slump
Aleksander Barkov5 days ago

Expected To Play In Game 4
Mark Stone5 days ago

Jamie Benn Ejected For Cross-Checking Mark Stone In Game 3
Ivan Barbashev5 days ago

Collects Three Points In Game 3 Victory
Adin Hill5 days ago

Posts First Career Playoff Shutout In Game 3
Sergei Bobrovsky6 days ago

Posts First Career Playoff Shutout In Game 3
Aleksander Barkov6 days ago

Suffers Lower-Body Injury In Game 3
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF