11 Fantasy Football Later-Round Lotto Tickets: Nick Mariano's Favorite 2025 Draft Sleepers

August 29, 2025

Nick's later-round fantasy football draft sleepers, ADP values for 2025. His top fantasy football lotto tickets with upside include Jaydon Blue, Chig Okonkwo, more.

We love to nail those early draft picks to set the tone for success, but there's nothing like turning those last couple of picks into a league-winner. The zero-to-hero dynamic is too alluring. And there's no point in clogging the end of our bench with a plodder who is just going to trickle in 4-7 points per game, am I right?

While we will mix in a few names who should have a decent floor, the aim here is to find cheap players who have given us a reason to believe that they'll move the needles in 2025. We should be able to get early information on most of them, which allows us to quickly determine if we're interested or panning for more gold on the waiver wire.

Let's take a look around and identify some names to circle as your draft is winding down. Whether they're players who you've already crossed off that demand another look, or someone you've never considered in the first place, we're all just here to win together. Without further ado, here are 11 of my favorite late-round lotto tickets for the 2025 fantasy football season.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 

ADP: 133, QB17

There’s nothing like taking your top QB fade from last year and seeing the pendulum swing all of the way to his being a solid value for ‘25. Stroud was being drafted as a top-five signal-caller after his electrifying rookie campaign, but he was getting pushed up on a flat tier as the first QB beyond the elites.

The running back room is in shambles without Joe Mixon to anchor it. There’s little enthusiasm for this offense going through the likes of Nick Chubb or Dameon Pierce between the tackles. So it has to be moving through the air!

Meanwhile, they brought in Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel to strengthen the WR corps behind Nico Collins, with Stefon Diggs gone and Tank Dell rehabbing. Woody Marks is also a fantastic receiver out of the backfield.

Stroud doesn’t have to recapture the top-five QB form from 2023 to pay this off. But his chances of getting close to that look strong with Nick Caley coming over from being the Rams' pass game coordinator last year.

Some C.J. Stroud under center play action film for what you can expect under Nick Caley this season:

Stroud was 3rd in 2025 among all QBs in CPOE off PA with a +6.4% & an 104.5 Passer Rating. pic.twitter.com/AAz3zgp1DQ

— Jacob (@TexansJacob) August 9, 2025

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 141, QB19

You’re buying into Kevin O’Connell’s system at a discount due to a downward trend in perception based on things that should rectify when it matters in ‘25. Perhaps you've considered one or two pieces of information, but not all of them at once.

McCarthy missed his rookie year with a torn ACL. Justin Jefferson wasn’t dominant. Jordan Addison will be suspended for three games. T.J. Hockenson had few highlights coming off his own major knee injury. No one is excited about Aaron Jones.

But all of this has been double-counted, or even triple-counted, against McCarthy and this Vikings offense. If the system is sputtering early, then you can move along. But holding until Addison is back would be ideal, because that’s when all systems should be a go.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 154, QB20

This one is simple: Do you believe that Liam Coen can bring a better offensive framework to a Jags team that has plenty of weapons, but has shown little cohesion? It costs very little to find out, and the later QB tiers flatten out quickly.

Unless your league is the type where even elite QB drafters are still taking a second QB on the bench, then you’re hunting pure upside with a high floor on the wire. You can see a clear trend across these three quarterback options: Reloaded/rejuvenated offense coming off an injury-affected 2024 down year.

Frankly, there is no uncomfortable barrier to me in single-QB formats, where I feel compelled to take one. I'd be happy to snag any of these three in the final rounds and see what's cooking.

Jaydon Blue, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 129, RB42

It looks like his ankle is okay after a preseason scare on Friday, so we proceed! The rookie just averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 134 totes with 42 catches for 368 more yards and 14 total TDs as a junior at Texas.

You’re betting on Blue and against Javonte Williams, who has not looked the same since tearing his ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner of his right knee in 2022. Williams has averaged 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry in each of those last two campaigns as a Bronco. Hope springs eternal, but it’s a heavy bet.

We want the versatile runner with a high ceiling amidst the unclear situation. With the Cowboys coming off a horrid year with only six rush TDs, let’s side with the youngster who can also contribute through the passing game. This team has a papier-mache defense and could be the NFC’s Cincinnati Bengals.

Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue was walking normally back to the locker room. A teammate asked if he was good, and he said yeah.

For what it’s worth.

— Nick Harris (@NickHarrisFWST) August 23, 2025

Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 221, RB60

Shipley barely saw the field in 2024. He turned 34 touches into 117 total yards with a 2.7 YPC, but the small sample cannot overwrite the reasons they drafted him. At Clemson, Shipley stacked 33 total TDs with a 5.2 YPC in 36 collegiate games before being taken in the fourth round.

It’s no secret that the Eagles had a league-leading 621 rush attempts last year, with that total settling around 750 after the postseason. Many are fixated, perhaps even hyperfixated, on Saquon Barkley coming off of such a massive workload.

There is an obvious upside to Shipley should injury befall Barkley. However, we’ll point out that Kenneth Gainwell still had 75 carries and another 22 targets, which would combine with Shipley’s total from last year to create a 125-touch piece of pie.

AJ Dillon will mix in, but he’s slotted as third on the unofficial depth chart and looked bad in ‘23 before missing all of ‘24 due to complications from a stinger. Getting cheap tickets to elite rushing blueprints is the way we want to attack this, with a lean towards the younger, healthier pair of legs.

Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 147, WR54

This pick is a straightforward scouting mission regarding whether the Saints will be capable of supporting Shaheed, or if Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara are as far as the NOLA train goes. Shaheed has the size and speed to be one of the best, which flashed early in 2024 before a torn meniscus in Week 6 ended the party.

However, he still had 349 yards and two touchdowns despite catching 20 of 41 total targets. Derek Carr was better than the Spencer Rattler/Tyler Shough combo, but how much worse can a catch rate south of 50% get?

If the Saints can't move the ball past midfield in Week 1, then move along, but new head coach Kellen Moore should bring creativity and innovation that helps cover up some deficiencies. He just helped Philadelphia explode in 2024 and built a strong resume in Dallas before that.

Rashid Shaheed played 39% of his snaps in the slot in yesterday's preseason game.

He was at a 25% slot rate last year.

More slot work and short targets in HC Kellen Moore's offense would be good news for Shaheed's week-to-week viability.

STILL a great value at his WR56 ADP.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 18, 2025

Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 162, WR58

Rashee Rice is not only facing a lengthy suspension that could trickle into the fantasy football playoff weeks, or will at least overlap with the majority of the bye-week crunches, but he’s also coming back from a major knee injury. Brown is returning from his own season-crushing shoulder injury, but his ADP is unbecoming of a starter in K.C.’s offense.

Xavier Worthy has respect in the top 50, but Rice’s situation and an aging Travis Kelce leave Brown as a big beneficiary ahead of the boring vets (JuJu Smith-Schuster) and longshot rookie (Jalen Royals). I love taking Royals, but Brown shouldn’t be passed over due to vet fatigue after a lost season.

He returned to practice on August 18 after a foot/ankle issue hampered him early on this preseason. If you believe that he’s a durability liability, then so be it, but getting access to a Patrick Mahomes’ starting WR who has a strong history of performance this late in drafts is a nice risk-reward proposition, if you ask me.

Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots

ADP: 280, WR89

A forgotten man, Boutte was one of 36 receivers with 40 or more first-read targets in the second half of last season (Weeks 10-18). He also ranked 17th with a 35.8% team air yard share.

Most of those names are unavailable after the first 40 picks, yet here Boutte is, off of draft boards completely. It costs little to see if that outlier run was all smoke, or if the Year 2 Drake Maye train brings Boutte along for the ride.

Stefon Diggs looks great this August, but getting a full year after his torn ACL is a big ask. DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry take the middle of the field, but there’s room to roam on the perimeter at Foxborough.

Dyami Brown, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 282, WR90

Brown burst onto the scene during Washington’s playoff push, leading the team with 229 yards on 14 receptions. This overshadowed his catching 30 balls for 308 yards and a score during the regular season, and earned him a $10 million contract from Jacksonville.

Liam Coen’s first year brings little certainty beyond Brian Thomas Jr. on offense. Travis Hunter should have the green light, though defensive snaps could put a soft limit on the WR involvement early. The backfield has three moving parts in Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, and Bhayshul Tuten. Then there’s an unproven (but interesting) sleeper in Brenton Strange.

Per SumerSports, Coen’s Bucs ran three-wide sets at a 71.2% clip, which was the eighth-highest in the NFL last year. Installing a similar vision here would help feature Brown enough that he could become fantasy relevant if Trevor Lawrence steps up.

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 210, TE25

Okonkwo has flashed stellar athleticism, but we’ve never seen sustained volume or scheming intent go his way. It’s possible this is by design due to a limited skill set that we’ve been shielded from. But given what we know about the 2022-24 Titans, it’s more likely that passing has never been a focal point, and the quarterback play was the true limiting skill factor.

He heads into his fourth NFL season having never missed a game, with 77 and 70 respective targets in 2023 and ‘24. Okonkwo owns a healthy 71.5% catch rate in a career where he’s worked with Ryan Tannehill, Mason Rudolph, Malik Willis, and Will Levis.

You may recall the streaking 70-yard touchdown reception from Week 12 of last year. He hit 20.03 mph on that, which was the 12th fastest ball-carrier speed reached in the NFL that week and the third-fastest by a TE all year. (Dallas Goedert hit 20.19 mph in Week 3 and Kylen Granson hit 20.09 mph in Week 17.) That preceded his seeing an uptick in work down the stretch, with 28 total targets for 22 catches and 182 yards (plus a 17-yard rush) between Weeks 15-17.

Now, he’ll operate with Cam Ward, who sure loved throwing to Elijah Arroyo in college (7 TDs last year). Tennessee doesn’t have an established hierarchy beyond Calvin Ridley, which means the late momentum from ‘24 and the big-play talent could pop in ‘25.

Titans TE Chig Okonkwo played 100% of the Cam Ward snaps. He's a quality late-round TE in best ball. Played more down the stretch last year. No target competition.

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 10, 2025

Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 197, TE24

Waller is back after retiring for 2024 to log an age-33 season for the Miami Dolphins, who operate a creative offense that’s built on speed. The TE hit 19.66 mph in 2023, which isn’t his top career speed of 21.76 mph back in ‘19, but it’s still quite fast!

Miami just enjoyed a breakout from the athletic Jonnu Smith (88 catches, 884 yards, eight TDs), and they have very little on the depth chart to challenge Waller. Neither Julian Hill nor Pharaoh Brown is receiving threats, and rookie Jalen Conyers is on the injured reserve.

Tua Tagovailoa averaged 260 yards per game in the 11 games he played, which was the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. We know the “if” statements stack up in relying on Tagovailoa to stay healthy and Waller to find his form after a year off, but this is your last pick. Another “if” is the potential target tree consolidation that would occur if Tyreek Hill is moved. Food for thought!

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